Assemble AI

Bitcoin options worth $2 billion and Ethereum options worth $410 million are set to expire on February 20 at 8:00 a.m. UTC, according to Deribit. Bitcoin's put/call ratio stands at 0.58 with a max pain price of $70,000, while Ethereum's put/call ratio is 0.73 with a max pain price at $2,025. These expirations mark critical price points that may influence short-term market movements for both cryptocurrencies.

The U.S. SEC has reduced the haircut applied to qualified payment stablecoins held by broker-dealers from 100% to 2%, allowing 98% of their value to count toward net capital. This change places stablecoins on similar regulatory footing as money market funds with comparable asset backing. The update is expected to improve liquidity and capital efficiency for broker-dealers holding stablecoins.

XRP is primarily designed as a fast, low-cost bridge currency for cross-border payments, distinct from cryptocurrencies focused on value storage or smart contracts. While millions hold XRP, the largest users include retail investors and crypto exchanges for liquidity management, with select payment providers using it for international remittances. Major banks often use Ripple's technology infrastructure but rarely use XRP itself for liquidity, making its utility specific rather than universal.

The White House held its third closed-door meeting with crypto leaders and banking representatives to discuss stablecoin reward mechanisms. Participants described the talks as constructive but no final agreement has been reached, with the banking sector remaining cautious. Key industry players like Ripple and Coinbase participated, highlighting ongoing efforts to balance U.S. competitiveness with consumer protection.

At the World Liberty Financial forum, Eric Trump expressed his strong optimism for Bitcoin, predicting it will ultimately reach $1 million. He highlighted Bitcoin's average annual gain of 70% over the past decade and referred to it as a top-performing asset class despite its inherent volatility. This bullish outlook aligns with the Trump family's growing involvement in the cryptocurrency sector through projects like World Liberty Financial.

Federal Reserve researchers published a paper praising prediction markets, especially the platform Kalshi, for outperforming traditional federal funds futures and economist forecasts in predicting key economic indicators. Kalshi provides continuous probability distributions for variables like the federal funds rate, CPI, GDP growth, and unemployment, which traditional tools do not offer. The study highlights the unique advantage of retail investor participation in prediction markets, enhancing real-time information aggregation.

The U.S. White House is inclined to allow some stablecoin reward programs instead of banning them entirely under the proposed Crypto-Asset Market Structure Act (CLARITY). This stance was clarified during a meeting with banking and crypto industry representatives on February 20. The provision permitting stablecoin rewards is likely to be included in the draft bill if banking sector consensus is reached.

Standard & Poor's has lowered the forecast probability of a U.S. recession within the next year to between 20-25%, down from the previous 30% estimate made in September. This update reflects an improved economic outlook for the U.S. over the short term. The change could influence risk sentiment across global markets, including the cryptocurrency sector.

The White House has expressed support for certain yield incentives on stablecoins as part of ongoing discussions to advance market structure legislation. It has urged banks to collaborate in reaching an agreement that facilitates this bill's progress. This move signals a potential regulatory framework shaping stablecoin markets and their integration with traditional banking.

Kraken's tokenized stock product, xStocks, has achieved over $25 billion in cumulative trading volume since its launch last year. Approximately $3.5 billion of this volume comes from trading on blockchain networks such as Solana, Ethereum, and TON. The platform now boasts over 80,000 unique on-chain holders and nearly $225 million in Assets Under Management, with Kraken moving forward to acquire xStocks issuer Backed.

The U.S. SEC is considering introducing an 'innovation exemption' to allow limited trading of tokenized securities on new platforms. This gradual regulatory approach aims to promote adoption while managing risks within the current legal framework. Notable traditional and crypto firms have ramped up tokenized stock trading, with trading volumes reaching billions globally.

Mizuho reports that Gemini's stock decline of 43% over the past month likely reflects the negative impact of recent executive departures. Despite weaker adjusted EBITDA losses than expected, Gemini's preliminary revenues slightly exceeded forecasts. The firm plans to cut 25% of its workforce and withdraw from key international markets to improve cost structures and move toward profitability, supporting a positive medium- to long-term outlook.

Parsec, an on-chain data analytics tool launched in early 2021, has officially ceased operations after five years of service. The platform offered customizable dashboards and API services for DeFi, NFTs, and integrated large language models for on-chain research. Parsec is currently handling refunds and canceling active subscriptions, despite raising $5.25 million in seed funding from notable investors.

At ETHDenver, SEC Chair Paul Atkins and Commissioner Hester Peirce discussed their agency's evolving stance on crypto regulation, highlighting a proposed innovation exemption for limited onchain trading of tokenized securities. This marks a notable shift in regulatory approach, signaling gradual openness to integrating onchain infrastructure within U.S. capital markets. Concurrently, Superstate raised $82.5 million to scale its onchain equity issuance platform, leveraging the shifting regulatory landscape.

Jervis Johnson, veteran designer of Warhammer 40,000, criticized generative AI, likening it to the 'asbestos of the internet' due to its potential long-term negative effects. He supports Games Workshop's ban on AI-generated content in their creative processes to preserve high-quality, human-driven design. Johnson believes AI may encourage creative laziness and shortcut the rigorous human effort needed for truly innovative work.

Actor T.J. Miller, speaking at ETH Denver, expressed little fear of AI replacing his role as a performer despite widespread industry concerns about automation. Miller noted the rapid pace of AI development and cautioned against fully surrendering control of life to AI. At the same event, blockchain developers highlighted using decentralized infrastructure to empower AI in trading and identity management.

Walmart slightly exceeded Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings per share and revenue expectations but offered a cautious revenue and earnings outlook for Q1 and fiscal 2027. The company projects revenue growth of 3.5%-4.5%, below Wall Street’s nearly 5% forecast, reflecting uncertainty in the economic environment. Analysts remain divided on Walmart’s stock price, with targets ranging from $108 to $130, while shares trade just above $120.

Google has introduced its AI music generation model Lyria 3 in beta within the Gemini app, allowing users to create 30-second tracks from prompts or images. The model produces quality mainstream genre samples but struggles with niche styles, and its output length is more limited compared to rivals like Suno and Udio. Google emphasizes copyright compliance and adds unique AI watermarks for track provenance, distinguishing its approach amid ongoing legal issues faced by competitors.

Coinbase plans to replace Optimism’s OP Stack with its own code for its Base blockchain, ending a partnership that shared over $16 million in revenue. The move caused Optimism’s token (OP) to plunge 25%, reflecting immediate market reaction to the loss of a major revenue source. Despite this, Optimism continues focusing on its enterprise services and ecosystem growth, positioning OP Mainnet as a significant payments chain.