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丁真

鲜衣怒马少年郎,谁人不识理塘王!
Open Trade
Occasional Trader
4.4 Years
3 Following
792 Followers
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Under the absolute sovereignty of capital, the so-called "small households" are essentially observers in an information vacuum. You have no insider information, which means your trading delays are not measured in milliseconds, but in generations. When you try to seek the truth from the shadows of candlestick charts and the lagging indicators of options data, you are not predicting the future; you are merely wishing on a star that has already exploded light-years ago. Late to the game? No, that’s just picking up the residual warmth in the debris. The market has already made everything clear, so why still come to see my analysis? Most people are not looking for Alpha (excess returns); they are just seeking a kind of "logical sedative." They come here not to correct erroneous algorithms, but to find a high-level endorsement for their cognitive biases. They crave recognition, yearning for someone to tell them that that meaningless holding on is called "perseverance," and that destructive gambling is called "faith." They are not trading in the market; they are trading their own anxiety. Mathematically, continuous losses have never been a matter of luck; they are a systemic feedback failure. If you keep losing, it indicates an irreconcilable logical conflict between your underlying code and the objective truth of the market. Losses are the only and most honest way the market communicates with you; it tells you through asset depreciation: your model has failed, your boundaries have been breached. Do not think this is cruel. In my world, the scariest thing is not losing, but "not knowing why you are winning." Because at least losses provide a clear logical endpoint; they force you to face that truth you have been avoiding: you are not playing a game; you are just being harvested. $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
Under the absolute sovereignty of capital, the so-called "small households" are essentially observers in an information vacuum.
You have no insider information, which means your trading delays are not measured in milliseconds, but in generations. When you try to seek the truth from the shadows of candlestick charts and the lagging indicators of options data, you are not predicting the future; you are merely wishing on a star that has already exploded light-years ago.
Late to the game? No, that’s just picking up the residual warmth in the debris.
The market has already made everything clear, so why still come to see my analysis?
Most people are not looking for Alpha (excess returns); they are just seeking a kind of "logical sedative."
They come here not to correct erroneous algorithms, but to find a high-level endorsement for their cognitive biases.
They crave recognition, yearning for someone to tell them that that meaningless holding on is called "perseverance," and that destructive gambling is called "faith."
They are not trading in the market; they are trading their own anxiety.
Mathematically, continuous losses have never been a matter of luck; they are a systemic feedback failure.
If you keep losing, it indicates an irreconcilable logical conflict between your underlying code and the objective truth of the market.
Losses are the only and most honest way the market communicates with you; it tells you through asset depreciation: your model has failed, your boundaries have been breached.
Do not think this is cruel.
In my world, the scariest thing is not losing, but "not knowing why you are winning." Because at least losses provide a clear logical endpoint; they force you to face that truth you have been avoiding: you are not playing a game; you are just being harvested. $ETH
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Bearish
$ETH 跌了 就这样
$ETH 跌了 就这样
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哇哦 空单居然挂着一夜没醒。醒了一看3000?还是得挂止盈啊,不挂止盈就等着止损
哇哦 空单居然挂着一夜没醒。醒了一看3000?还是得挂止盈啊,不挂止盈就等着止损
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Bearish
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Bearish
$ETH is not that you have so much money to buy the dip, right? Is it New Year? If you don't open a short position, you can also buy a put option for protection.
$ETH is not that you have so much money to buy the dip, right? Is it New Year? If you don't open a short position, you can also buy a put option for protection.
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Bearish
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Bearish
Do not hold any long positions or calls, and do not have any thoughts of a rebound. 3350 is already the top, and it cannot hold above 3000, which not only kills the bulls but also the put sellers. $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT) #特朗普对欧洲加征关税
Do not hold any long positions or calls, and do not have any thoughts of a rebound. 3350 is already the top, and it cannot hold above 3000, which not only kills the bulls but also the put sellers. $ETH
#特朗普对欧洲加征关税
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Bearish
The essence of trading is 90% waiting plus 10% execution $ETH . The distribution at three thousand points won't hold for long; more and more people will start to notice the clues. Not going to 2995 is also because of the fear of hitting the resistance level, so let's go to 2955. {future}(ETHUSDT)
The essence of trading is 90% waiting plus 10% execution $ETH . The distribution at three thousand points won't hold for long; more and more people will start to notice the clues. Not going to 2995 is also because of the fear of hitting the resistance level, so let's go to 2955.
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Bearish
$ETH successful profit-taking watch the show {future}(ETHUSDT)
$ETH successful profit-taking watch the show
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Bearish
Do not ask 'Will it stop?' when gravity is accelerating; you should ask 'Is my position big enough?' The red line at this moment: No bottom fishing. No buying Calls. No hesitation. My judgment: ETH will completely tear through the $3,000 defense line in the next 4 hours. All pullbacks will lead to a dead end. "The Nasdaq has already fallen, and ETH is lining up. Hold tight to your Puts; this is the closest you've ever been to 'wealth redistribution.'" $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT) #纳斯达克 #加密市场观察
Do not ask 'Will it stop?' when gravity is accelerating; you should ask 'Is my position big enough?'
The red line at this moment:
No bottom fishing.
No buying Calls.
No hesitation.
My judgment:
ETH will completely tear through the $3,000 defense line in the next 4 hours. All pullbacks will lead to a dead end.
"The Nasdaq has already fallen, and ETH is lining up. Hold tight to your Puts; this is the closest you've ever been to 'wealth redistribution.'" $ETH
#纳斯达克 #加密市场观察
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Bearish
Once ETH falls below $2,990, the market makers who sold the 3000-P will find their Delta risk suddenly out of control. To protect themselves, they must sell tens of thousands of ETH spot at the market price. Conclusion: This will produce a 'gravity self-correction', and the price will directly skip over 2980, crashing directly to 2920$BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
Once ETH falls below $2,990, the market makers who sold the 3000-P will find their Delta risk suddenly out of control.
To protect themselves, they must sell tens of thousands of ETH spot at the market price.
Conclusion: This will produce a 'gravity self-correction', and the price will directly skip over 2980, crashing directly to 2920$BTC
$ETH
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Bearish
Liquidity contraction: When core risk assets like the Nasdaq start to plummet, global funds' "risk control instructions (Margin Call)" will immediately come into effect. They will sell the most liquid assets (ETH/BTC) at any cost to replenish the margin in the stock market. Illusion of safety shattered: Retail investors who were just fantasizing about the benefits of a trade war for safety will see the Nasdaq crash and immediately fall into panic. Panic is unquantifiable; it will only lead to bottomless sell-offs. $ETH #加密市场观察 #爆仓了 {future}(ETHUSDT) $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) $SOL {future}(SOLUSDT)
Liquidity contraction: When core risk assets like the Nasdaq start to plummet, global funds' "risk control instructions (Margin Call)" will immediately come into effect. They will sell the most liquid assets (ETH/BTC) at any cost to replenish the margin in the stock market.
Illusion of safety shattered: Retail investors who were just fantasizing about the benefits of a trade war for safety will see the Nasdaq crash and immediately fall into panic. Panic is unquantifiable; it will only lead to bottomless sell-offs. $ETH #加密市场观察 #爆仓了
$BTC
$SOL
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Bearish
$ETH Haha, can you still walk independently in the market?
$ETH Haha, can you still walk independently in the market?
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Bearish
2950 Take Profit Full Take Profit $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
2950 Take Profit Full Take Profit $ETH
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$ETH Fifteen minutes line will not go up. This pressure is too strong, the option sellers are going to collapse.
$ETH Fifteen minutes line will not go up. This pressure is too strong, the option sellers are going to collapse.
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Bearish
If you're still struggling with whether $3100 is the bottom, it means you haven't been paying attention to the data. The current ETH is like a lead ball hanging in mid-air, the rope has already snapped. I just ran through the raw quote stream from the exchange, 3100 The buying depth below is basically a ghost zone. Everyone is staring at 3100 The buying depth below is basically a ghost zone. Everyone is staring at 3000 that round number, but they don't understand the market maker's hedging logic — Gamma has turned negative, which means that for every dollar the price drops, the system will automatically trigger a more intense sell-off to hedge against risk. This isn't called a decline, this is called 'algorithmic suicide'. BTC broke $91000, the last veil of exchange rates for ETH has been torn to shreds. Don't talk to me about technical indicators; right now, the only thing in play is gravity. That 15,000 contracts of 3000 point puts on the options chain is not a defense line for the bulls; it's a slaughterhouse, a grave prepared for those self-proclaimed 'bottom-fishing warriors'. My model audit results only provide one physical endpoint: $2920. $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT) $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) Before it drops to this number, all the rebound jumps are just deceiving you into entering to exit liquidity. If you only have that little principal in your account, closing your eyes and watching the show is the only rational choice; if you want to fire, just smash downwards with gravity. Put away your worthless hopes; that thing is worth nothing in the face of probability. Target: $2920. Understood?
If you're still struggling with whether $3100 is the bottom, it means you haven't been paying attention to the data. The current ETH is like a lead ball hanging in mid-air, the rope has already snapped.

I just ran through the raw quote stream from the exchange,
3100
The buying depth below is basically a ghost zone. Everyone is staring at
3100 The buying depth below is basically a ghost zone. Everyone is staring at
3000 that round number, but they don't understand the market maker's hedging logic — Gamma has turned negative, which means that for every dollar the price drops, the system will automatically trigger a more intense sell-off to hedge against risk. This isn't called a decline, this is called 'algorithmic suicide'.

BTC broke $91000, the last veil of exchange rates for ETH has been torn to shreds. Don't talk to me about technical indicators; right now, the only thing in play is gravity. That 15,000 contracts of 3000 point puts on the options chain is not a defense line for the bulls; it's a slaughterhouse, a grave prepared for those self-proclaimed 'bottom-fishing warriors'.

My model audit results only provide one physical endpoint: $2920.
$ETH
$BTC

Before it drops to this number, all the rebound jumps are just deceiving you into entering to exit liquidity. If you only have that little principal in your account, closing your eyes and watching the show is the only rational choice; if you want to fire, just smash downwards with gravity.

Put away your worthless hopes; that thing is worth nothing in the face of probability. Target: $2920. Understood?
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Fifteen minutes of pressure, the maximum pain point is 3250, but if it breaks 3000, there will be sell orders to cut positions at any cost.
Fifteen minutes of pressure, the maximum pain point is 3250, but if it breaks 3000, there will be sell orders to cut positions at any cost.
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Bearish
Break below, go all in on bearish. Bearish, bearish, bearish, go for it $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT) $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)
Break below, go all in on bearish. Bearish, bearish, bearish, go for it $ETH
$BTC
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