Some lessons only make sense after you’ve taken a loss.
Here’s one point about style: Some people are suited to the long game, while others do better in the short term. It comes down to personality, not ability. Finding an approach that fits your personality matters far more than imitating someone who’s successful.
Take today’s $PEPE as an example: it’s at 0.000005 now, up +9.96% over 24 hours. This market action is a perfect illustration of the point above. It’s no coincidence—it’s human nature repeating itself in the market.
The market won’t go easy on you just because you understand how things work. Make a note of it and look back later.
There’s something I wrote down a long time ago that came to mind again today.
A late-night reflection made this point: I used to think I couldn’t make money because I wasn’t smart enough. Then I realized it was the opposite—I was too smart, always trying to find the optimal solution, and ended up missing one simple opportunity after another.
Take $PEPE today, for example: it’s at 0.000005 now, up 9.69% in 24 hours. This kind of market action perfectly illustrates the point above. It’s no coincidence—it’s human nature repeating itself in the market.
There are several liquidations between knowing and doing. Keeping some powder dry is better than anything else.
I went over today’s market action before bed. Honestly, there was quite a bit of information in today’s moves.
BTC fluctuated between 80,940 and 82,052 today, closing at 82,008, up 0.38% for the day. The most noteworthy thing wasn’t the price movement itself, but whether trading volume kept pace. Today’s volume was 1.072 billion USDT—not particularly active, to be honest, which suggests market sentiment is still fairly cautious.
ETH was slightly stronger, up 0.12% for the day and closing at 2,414, with a trading range of 2,360 to 2,418. It’s still very clearly moving in sync with BTC; it’s hard for ETH to make an independent move when BTC is flat.
The biggest mover today was $PEPE , up 13.17% for the day on 86 million in volume. A move like this could mean capital was positioning early, or that sentiment-driven trading amplified the volatility.
The key signal today: whether BTC can break through a key level on increased volume will determine what comes next. Tomorrow, I’ll be watching closely to see whether BTC can hold the xxx level.
Down 0.18% on the day, closing at 81,693, with a high/low of 82,087 / 80,940. Trading volume came in at 1.124 billion USDT—pretty solid for today.
The main thing to note today is that BTC is still digesting selling pressure. If it finds support around 80,940 tomorrow, the move may have room to continue. But if it opens tomorrow with a sharp drop, today’s rally was probably just a short-term trade.
I just came across a passage and paused for a moment.
There’s a lesson in Zhuangzi’s idea of “the use of uselessness”: Zhuangzi speaks of the usefulness of what seems useless. Sitting on the sidelines may look like doing nothing, but staying out of the market is itself a position. When you don’t act, you’re building up your judgment and cash—both are most valuable when an opportunity comes along.
Take $PEPE today, for example: it’s at 0.000005, up 12.44% over 24 hours. This market action perfectly illustrates the lesson above. It’s no coincidence—it’s human nature repeating itself in the market.
The more I think about it, the more I feel that in the end, trading isn’t about technical skill, but about state of mind. For now, I’ll just watch and stay out.
$PEPE is now at 0.000005, up 12.70% over the past 24 hours.
The high and low during this period were 0.000005 / 0.000004, with a trading volume of 75 million USDT.
0.000004 is the key support level to watch right now. If it breaks, there’s no clear support below. On the upside, 0.000005 is resistance for this move. Until the price breaks above it with strong volume, treat any bounce as just a bounce.
Liquidity is thin at this time of day, so even small orders can move the price. Sharp wicks and sudden fakeouts are nothing unusual. If you do trade, use limit orders instead of chasing the market, and don’t set your stop-loss too tight.
ETH is currently at 0.080250 this evening, up 1.22% over 24 hours.
Today's range was 0.077850 to 0.080690, with a trading volume of 44 million USDT. At this time of evening, ETH tends to follow BTC's lead. If Bitcoin suddenly rallies, ETH will most likely follow; conversely, if Bitcoin plunges, ETH will find it hard to avoid the impact.
If you're thinking of making a move this evening, keep a close eye on the 0.077850 support level. If it holds, you could consider testing the waters with a small position; if it breaks, wait for the next support level. The biggest risk is getting carried away by emotions at night and jumping in without thinking it through.
I copied this passage into my notebook, and I flip back to it every so often.
There’s a lesson in *Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance*: At a certain stage of trading, technical analysis becomes less important. What matters is whether you can quietly observe the market without being distracted by the noise. Taking the time to read these seemingly useless books with a clear mind is more valuable than watching a hundred KOLs shout out trade calls.
Take $PEPE today, for example: it’s at 0.000005 now, up 10.67% in 24h. This kind of price action is a perfect illustration of the point above. It’s no coincidence—it’s human nature repeating itself in the market.
It sounds simple, but it takes a lot of costly lessons to put into practice. Wait for the signal, not the mood.
The market is about to close, and $ETH is definitely worth discussing today.
It was up -0.25% for the day, with a trading volume of 761 million USDT, making it one of the most active coins on the market today. The price climbed from 2,360 to 2,418, then pulled back to around 2,395.
This trend suggests that capital hasn’t left yet, but short-term traders are also taking profits. The key thing to watch tomorrow is whether trading volume can continue to increase around 2,395. If volume doesn’t pick up, a retest is likely; if it keeps increasing, there could be more room to move.
Did you catch this move today? Are you still bullish on this coin tomorrow?
Beyond the market charts, let me talk about something I’ve been thinking about for a long time.
There’s a principle about capital: Your capital is your ticket to staying at the table. Many people treat it like ammunition and burn through it carelessly, forgetting that without capital, you don’t even get the chance to observe the market. Staying in the game matters more than anything.
Take today’s $AI as an example: it’s now at 0.020300, up 7.41% in 24 hours. This market action is a perfect illustration of the principle above. It’s no coincidence—it’s human nature repeating itself in the market.
The more I think about it, the more I feel that in the end, trading isn’t about technique; it’s about mindset. Let’s talk more tomorrow.
Here’s where the afternoon market stands: ETH is around 744.75, up 0.83% over 24 hours.
The intraday range is 725.62 to 744.94, with a trading volume of 67 million USDT. Neither bulls nor bears are making any big moves right now—they’re both waiting for a signal.
If volume picks up and ETH breaks above 744.94 this afternoon, it would suggest the bulls still have some fight in them. On the other hand, if it retests 725.62 and fails to hold, this rally may be nearing its end. For futures traders, the biggest mistake right now would be betting heavily on one direction—you could easily get wiped out by a sudden move.
What are you doing in this afternoon’s market—sitting on the sidelines, or making a short-term trade?
Nothing much to say today, so let’s talk about something else.
A lesson from this morning’s reading: This morning, something suddenly clicked: the biggest enemy in trading isn’t the market—it’s the pressure you put on yourself. The harder you chase a double, the more likely you are to wipe out. Slow down a little, and you’ll go further.
Take today’s $ETH as an example: it’s at 2,404 now, down 1.41% over 24h. This kind of market action is a perfect illustration of the point above. It’s no coincidence—it’s human nature repeating itself in the charts.
The market won’t go easy on you just because you understand the principles. Keeping some powder dry is better than anything else.
Taking a quick look at the market over lunch. $AI is showing strong momentum today, up +7.89% in the past 24 hours.
The current price is 0.020500, with an intraday high of 0.021400 and a low of 0.018800. Trading volume is 86 million USDT. That kind of volume shows this isn't just a minor move—there's definitely money paying attention to it.
But I have to say this: chasing a price spike at midday comes at a cost. A lot of coins surge around lunchtime, then start pulling back in the afternoon. If you're bullish on it, rather than jumping in now, why not wait until this afternoon and see if buyers step in?
At this point in the midday session, are you already in, or waiting for a pullback?
There’s something I wrote down a long time ago, and it came to mind again today.
The *Tao Te Ching* teaches a principle: Laozi said, “The reversal is the movement of the Tao.” When a rise reaches its extreme, that’s the beginning of a fall; when a fall has gone so far that no one is talking about it, that’s where the seeds of a rise are planted. This isn’t mysticism—it’s a shared pattern in all cyclical markets.
Take $BTC today, for example: it’s at 81,882, down 1.12% over the past 24 hours. The market action is a perfect illustration of the principle above. It’s no coincidence; it’s human nature repeating itself in the charts.
The more I think about it, the more I feel that in the end, trading isn’t about technical skill—it’s about mindset. Time to trim my position a little.
I scanned the market early today, and $SOXLB caught my eye—it’s down 12.81%.
The price is now 84.24, with an intraday high and low of 96.73 / 78.17. Trading volume is 54 million USDT, which suggests active buying—not just retail investors piling in blindly.
When a coin suddenly sees a spike in volume early in the day, it’s usually one of two things: either some investors have caught wind of good news ahead of time, or the big players are testing the waters. Either way, the biggest mistake right now would be chasing it blindly. It’s already moved so much that the risk of chasing it outweighs the potential opportunity.
If you’re already in, keep an eye on 78.17—if it breaks below that level, you should definitely get out. If you haven’t entered yet, consider waiting for a pullback to a support level before making a decision.
Nothing much to say today, so let’s talk about something else.
Taleb makes a point in *Skin in the Game*: He says to trust people who have skin in the game. In crypto, you should check whether the people calling trades have bought in themselves, and how much they’ve bought. Advice from someone with no position is worthless. You’re responsible for your own money.
Take today’s $BTC as an example: it’s now at 81,462, down 3.22% over 24 hours. This market action is a perfect illustration of the point above. It’s no coincidence—it’s human nature repeating itself in the markets.
We’ve all heard these principles. The hard part is actually following them when the moment comes. Wait for the signal, not the mood.
ETH is hovering around 1.3104 in early trading, down 4.08% over 24 hours.
Last night’s high and low were 1.3666 / 1.2954, with prices moving within the range overall. The key thing to watch this morning is whether ETH can hold 1.2954—if it breaks below that level, there’s room to fall further; if it holds, we could see a small short-term rebound.
Trading volume is 118 million USDT, which isn’t particularly high. This suggests traders are still on the sidelines this morning, with no clear directional move. The last thing you want to do right now is rush into a trade—wait until the picture is clearer before acting.
A quick look before the market opens. BTC is stuck at 81,356, down 3.67% over the past 24 hours, and overall looks weak. ETH is hovering around 2,385, down 3.97% over the past 24 hours, and also looks weak.
BTC traded between 80,940 and 84,377 overnight, so this is a key level. If it can open with strong volume and hold around 84,377, short-term sentiment will improve considerably. On the other hand, if it drops below 80,940 right after the open, today will most likely be a choppy day.
ETH is even more dependent on BTC. If Bitcoin doesn't provide a clear direction, it's hard for Ether to move independently. Trading volume is 779 million USDT—not particularly active—which suggests everyone is waiting for a signal at the open.
I won't jump in right at the open today. I'll watch for half an hour first, then decide once the direction is clear. For now, I'll just watch and sit tight.
There’s not much to say today, so let’s talk about something else.
There’s a principle about certainty: There’s no certainty in the market, only probabilities. Anyone who tells you something is inevitable, guaranteed, or a sure thing is either lying to you or lying to themselves. Accepting uncertainty is the first lesson for beginners.
Take today’s $ETH as an example: it’s at 2,395 right now, down 4.15% over the past 24 hours. This kind of market action perfectly illustrates the principle above. It’s no coincidence—it’s human nature repeating itself in the charts.
The market won’t go easy on you just because you understand the principle. Wait for signals, not for the right mood.
The high and low during this period were 0.021400 / 0.018800, with a trading volume of 83 million USDT.
0.018800 is the key support to watch right now. If it breaks, there’s no clear support below. On the upside, 0.021400 is resistance for this move; until the price breaks above it on strong volume, any rebound should be treated as just a rebound.
Liquidity is thin during this period, so small orders can easily move the price. Wicks and sudden spikes are nothing unusual. If you do trade, use limit orders rather than chasing the market, and don’t place your stop-loss too close.
Keeping some powder dry is better than anything else.