佬K看盘

Before bed, I went over today’s chart in detail. Honestly, today’s move had quite a lot of information.

Today BTC traded in a range between 62,856 and 64,388, and eventually closed at 64,120, up 1.54% for the day. What’s most worth watching here isn’t the rise or fall itself, but whether the trading volume kept up. Today’s volume was 705 million USDT—honestly, that’s not very active—so it suggests market sentiment is still fairly cautious.

ETH is a bit stronger: up 0.87% for the day, closing at 1,842, with a fluctuation range of 1,811 to 1,856. The correlation with BTC is still very clear—if BTC doesn’t move, it’s hard for ETH to run independently.

The wildest one today is $?—up ? for the day, with volume of ?. This kind of move usually means either capital is positioned in advance, or sentiment-driven competition is amplifying volatility.

Today’s most important signal: can BTC put out volume at key levels? That will determine the next direction. Tomorrow I’ll focus on whether BTC’s xxx level can be held.

Did you land a catch today? Which coin are you most focused on tomorrow?

#BTC #ETH #全天复盘 #Crypto

The big pancake today swayed around and finally crawled back up again. The close is back at 64,000, but the imitation coin market is a complete mess.

BTC drifted from just below 63,000 in the morning to above 64,000. At the peak, it was only a breath away from touching 65,000.

RSI is 59—still not in the overbought zone, but it’s slightly strong. MACD is still hanging on the bullish side. MA5 and MA20 are moving alongside each other; the price is sticking to the moving averages, and the direction hasn’t broken out.

Trading volume is only so-so—no surge in volume—suggesting neither bulls nor bears are willing to push hard from this level.

Support below looks relatively clean. First to watch is 62,500, the recent low from a few days ago. Resistance above is 65,000, which it has failed to break through multiple times.

If tomorrow it pulls back to around 62,500, I’ll consider trying a small long position. I’ll place the stop-loss below 62,000. Then we’ll look at 65,000—if it breaks through, we’ll look at 66,000.

I just worry that weekend liquidity will shrink and suddenly one needle-like drop plunges it downward. You do what you think best.

This chart is really exhausting. I’m taking a break.

#BTC #夜盘 #行情复盘 #币圈

After dinner, I glanced at the gainers list—the hottest thing in the last two hours today was actually $ETH .

1,846, up 0.34%.
In the past 24 hours, it fell from 1,856 to 1,803, with exactly 293 million USDT in turnover.
But volume has shrunk; the 20-day average volume multiple is still hovering around 0.0x.
A volume-shrinking rally doesn’t mean real money is pouring in—it’s simply that nobody’s selling.

RSI 64.1, relatively strong, but not yet overbought.
MACD is bullish: DIF is still negative but trending upward, and the signal line remains.
MA5 = 1,846, MA20 = 1,844—the price is riding along those two lines.
The Bollinger Bands are skewed upward, with bandwidth only 1.1%, volatility compressing and tightening fast.

Key support is at 1,803; today it only touched that level at the low.
Resistance is at 1,894—tapped twice and failed to break through.
Low volume + narrow bandwidth + bullish MACD; signals are conflicting, so trade volume takes priority.
In this kind of market, there’s no stacked-up capital—the move is being propped up by sentiment.

If tonight it continues to shrink volume and pulls up above 1,850, that would be a fake breakout.
A retest around 1,820 that doesn’t break is considered stable.

My personal plan: if it retraces to 1,810–1,815, I’ll try a small long position; place a stop loss just below 1,800.
For take-profit, I’ll first look at 1,850—if it passes, then 1,890.
The above is only my personal plan, not financial advice or a trade call.

What’s the risk of chasing it? Tomorrow is Sunday, so liquidity will be even worse.
If there’s no volume tomorrow morning, the 1,846 area might end up being the high.
This market is exhausting to watch. I’m taking a break.

#晚盘涨幅榜 #ETH #币圈 #晚间行情

ETH tonight hovered around the 1845 level all day; it’s starting to get interesting now.

Price is stuck right at the intersection of MA5 and MA20. The two lines are almost stuck together—so the market hasn’t chosen a direction.

RSI is 58.3—not overbought, but leaning bullish.

MACD is still in the bullish zone, but the DIF value is slightly negative and the momentum seems a bit lagging.

Trading volume has shrunk drastically—only about 0.2x the average volume—showing everyone is waiting and nobody’s taking action.

Support to watch is 1803, the day’s 24-hour low. If it breaks, watch 1810.

Resistance is at 1894, with additional resistance at 1893 stacked above.

The Bollinger Bands are a bit upward-biased, but the bandwidth is only 1.2%—it’s extremely narrow. This kind of narrow channel often “squeezes” a new wave of movement.

If tonight continues with low-volume consolidation, I’ll wait for a pullback to around 1820 to try a small long position. Stop loss will be placed just below 1800, and take profit will first target 1894.

If BTC suddenly turns around, ETH will most likely follow. If BTC dumps, ETH will most likely test the 1803 support. If BTC rallies, ETH will have the chance to hit the 1894 resistance.

Who moves first gets the initiative.

With this chart, without volume there’s no direction.

Wait another hour—see if there are signs of volume picking up.

Anyway, I’m not trading tonight.

#ETH #晚间行情 #币圈 # Ethereum

Just finished reviewing the daily chart for today of $BTC —64,011. In the past 24 hours, it’s up 1.47%, with turnover of 800 million.
In the group, someone else is shouting, “This time is different.”
Look, the script is the same every round: volume spike, a push up, FOMO, and then a pullback.
What’s different is that the person giving trade calls used a different image; what’s the same is the batch of people who end up holding the bag.

Today’s market is very typical. On the weekend, liquidity is low. Trading volume of 800 million isn’t a breakout, yet the price is grinding upward.
There’s no new news—this is all being driven by sentiment.
Do you call it strong? It looks strong. But the independent daily line hasn’t seen volume expand, which means the main players haven’t stepped in—they’re just letting retail traders hype themselves up.
It reminds me of Livermore’s quote: “The market is never new; speculation is as old as mountains.”
This morning I was reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and got to that line, and my spine tingled—doesn’t it just describe what’s happening now?

Don’t chase. Wait for confirmation.

The most quiet on Saturday’s market is Ethereum. It sat at 1,844 all day, with a range of less than 3%—even more boring than Bitcoin.

With 320 million U in trading volume, it shrank to one-fifth of the 20-day average volume. The market isn’t resting; it’s holding back a move.

RSI is stuck at 49.6—neither up nor down. Although MACD’s DIFF is still below the zero line, the red bars after the golden cross haven’t shrunk. The Bollinger Band width has compressed to 1.8%, which is a classic maneuver before a breakout.

MA5 and MA20 have been repeatedly tangled in the 1,842–1,845 area. The moving-average cluster suggests there’s no directional trend in the short term.

If I were bullish, I’d wait for a pullback into the 1,803–1,810 range to enter for a long, with a stop-loss set below 1,794. The first target would be 1,856; if it breaks through, then 1,894. The key support at 1,803 is the low of last week—if it breaks, the short-term long thesis fails.

If I’m bearish, then a reasonable entry would be on a rebound near 1,894, with a stop-loss above 1,908 and a target at 1,856. 1,894 is the daily Bollinger upper band and has been used to suppress the price twice during the week.

Personally, I’m inclined to wait for a pullback to 1,803 and then confirm before acting. Right now the position is stuck in the middle—entering would be gambling.

The above is my personal plan. If you lose money, don’t come find me.

#ETH #以太坊 #技术分析 #contract hedge

These funding rates for ETH are about to turn positive, and long/“bull” sentiment over the weekend is slowly recovering.

Price at 1845 has been ranging for a day; the MA5 and MA20 are stuck together, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears hasn’t reached a conclusion yet.
RSI is 52.5—not overheated—and there’s still upward momentum to test.
MACD: although the DIF is still in negative territory, it’s starting to curl upward; the Bollinger Bands are tilted slightly upward, and the bandwidth is only 2.4%, compressing and building up direction.

Trading volume is only 360 million, noticeably lower than usual.
With volume like this on Saturday afternoon, there isn’t much appetite to chase. But the bears also can’t push it down.

We need to see whether it can hold above 1845. The first support below is 1803; if it breaks, 1810 isn’t far away either.
If it pulls back to around 1810, I’ll consider a small-lot long entry, with a stop-loss placed just below 1800.
Upward resistance to watch first is 1894; higher up is 1912.
Right now the funding rate is normal, not at an extreme level that would require avoiding risk.

I can’t read this order book with confidence, so I’ll keep it hanging and do nothing for now.

I just flipped to a line in *Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance*, and it reminded me of how I used to stare at the charts a couple of years ago.

“Real riding is when the rider and the motorcycle become one.”

Back then I drew lines every day—MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, all of it.

It was like taking the motorcycle apart into pieces, but forgetting how to ride.

Today $BTC 63,968, in the last 24h it’s up 1.81%, with turnover of 994 million.

Some people are watching this green candle and searching everywhere for reasons.

Some people notice the volume didn’t pick up and immediately start calling for shorts.

No need.

The chart is right there.

It’s up—it’s not up much.

That’s all.

The book says, “good quality” isn’t something you analyze out of the data—it’s what you perceive when you quiet down.

Trading too.

Technical analysis teaches you how to read the chart, but the market teaches you how to shut up.

This afternoon’s session isn’t very volatile, but there’s plenty of noise.

Those “useful” books teach you how to make quick money.

Those “useless” books teach you how not to lose money.

Anyway, I’m not daring to move anymore.

#投资哲学 #交易心态 #午后读 #AfternoonThought

Quick check the order book after lunch. Today the funds are most concentrated in $DEXE —within half an hour it was pulled from 34.8 to 35.9, up 3.69%. The trading value immediately hit 0.33 billion USDT.

Why pick it? The MACD is in a bullish alignment, and the DIF is above 0.19, which suggests the short-term momentum is still there. RSI is 56.5—below 70—so it’s not overheated. There’s still room for funds to pile in.

But don’t get carried away. The volume is contracting—only 0.1x the average volume. This green candle has no volume behind it; it looks kind of flimsy. R1 resistance at 37.37 is overhead. This level is a prior locked-in zone from earlier—without volume breaking out, it can’t push through.

My plan is this: if it retraces to around 35.7 (near the MA20 area), I’ll consider a small long position. I’ll set a stop-loss below 34.1; if it breaks, I’ll accept the loss. First target: look at 37.3. If it passes, then look at 37.8. If the bounce reaches around 37.3 with shrinking volume, then I’ll look for a short, with a stop-loss set above 37.4.

The above is just my personal pre-market plan, not a call to trade.

Support at 31.3, resistance at 37.3. Without volume, there’s no follow-through—wait for confirmation before acting.

I won’t touch this area.

#DEXE #午盘 #涨幅榜 #crypto

Two hours after the market opened, the first thing to surge today wasn’t the big BTC—it's $DEXE . Now it's at 36.17, up 5.22% over the past 24h, and it briefly touched a high of 36.89.

What’s this small-cap getting targeted for?
On the weekend, liquidity is low. There’s activity in DEXE-chain on-chain governance, and funds specifically pick off small-cap targets to run-and-gun.
In the early session, volume was clearly elevated. The $0.3B trading volume is more than 1.5 times the usual. The MACD golden cross has just started forming.

What are the risks of chasing it in?
The Bollinger Bands haven’t opened wide yet, and the upper band is around 37.2. Price has pushed up into the resistance zone.
RSI is currently 62—not overbought, but not cheap either. Chasing in makes it easy to get trapped in a fake breakout.
The key support is at 34.5—that’s the MA20 level. If it breaks, it will likely return to the ranging zone.

My own plan is:
If it retraces to around 35 and can hold steady, I’ll consider trying a small long position, with a stop-loss below 34.5. First watch 36.8; if it breaks, then look at 37.2.
If it directly rallies above 37 without looking back, then I’ll wait and not chase.
The above is just my personal plan, not a call to trade.

I won’t touch this spot.

#早盘 #涨幅榜 #DEXE #行情

Woke up suddenly after reading a sentence from Livermore in the morning.

He said that the trades where he lost the most were never ones where he got the direction wrong.

Instead, it was that he wouldn’t tell himself, “I’m wrong—get out first.”

Today \(ETH \) is at 1,841, down 1.31% over the past 24 hours, with a trading volume of 442 million USDT.

The market is just sitting there, slipping down steadily without much heat.

If you entered at 1,864 yesterday, you wouldn’t be down by even 1% now.

But here’s the question—are you willing to admit it?

Or do you tell yourself, “Wait a bit more; maybe it’ll rebound”?

Livermore said that most people’s losses die right at this moment.

His exact words were: *“The reason most traders lose is that they are unwilling to admit they’re wrong.”*

It’s not a problem of judging direction.

It’s what happens in that moment—you’re fighting with yourself.

In the crypto world, nobody hasn’t taken losses like this.

Me neither.

The trade I lost the most on wasn’t that I misread the market.

I actually got it right—but I clenched my teeth and refused to cut the loss.

At the 1,841 level, if it were me, I’d only look at one thing:

If I enter this trade and it drops to 1,820, am I willing to admit I’m wrong and get out?

If I’m not, then don’t enter.

Write it down first.

ETH is squatting around 1841 this morning, just like last night’s close—no real attitude. Over the past 24 hours, the high reached 1871 and the low dipped to 1803. Right now it’s stuck between the MA5 and MA20 (1841 and 1836), like it’s waiting for weekend volume to pick up.

The MACD is still in a bullish arrangement. DIF -5.35 is gradually converging, and the RSI is at 53.8—not strong, but not weak either. The Bollinger Bands are tightening; bandwidth is only 4.5%. Clearly low volume: turnover is just 454 million, about 80% less than the 20-day average. With this kind of volume, trying to push up to 1929 basically won’t happen. The bottoms to watch today are 1810 and 1803. If the morning pulls back to around 1803 and holds steady there, with the MACD still bullish, I’ll consider going long with a small position. Place a stop-loss slightly below 1795, then first watch 1836 and next 1850. If the rebound reaches above 1850 but the volume can’t keep up, then wait—don’t chase.
If 1803 breaks directly, and the price rebounds toward 1810, I’ll look to short. Stop-loss above 1820, target 1790.

Liquidity is thin on Saturday’s early session—don’t expect big moves. Take care of your own decisions; if you lose money, don’t blame me.

This chart is really exhausting to watch.

Quick scan before the open. BTC is currently stuck around 63,986, up +0.06% over 24h, and overall seems fairly strong. ETH is near 1,840, down -1.53% over 24h, and it’s also on the weaker side.

The overnight BTC range was from 62,538 to 64,388—this level is quite key. If the market can open with volume and hold above 64,388, short-term sentiment will improve a lot; if instead it gets dumped right under 62,538 at the open, then today is very likely to be a range-bound day.

For ETH, I’m more watching BTC’s face. If BTC doesn’t give direction, it’s hard for ETH to move independently. Trading volume is 484 million USDT—not very active—which suggests everyone is waiting for signals from the open.

Today, I won’t jump in right at the open. I’ll watch for the first half hour to confirm the direction first. When you open, are you focusing on BTC first, or on alts first?

#BTC #ETH #早盘 #行情前瞻

I just finished 《Reminiscences of a Stock Operator》 and read Livermore’s line—"The reason most traders lose money is that they refuse to admit when they’re wrong."

I put the book down and looked at the screen.

$ETH today 1,845, down 1.74% in 24 hours, with volume of 497 million USDT. The market action is sticky and unclear—not decisive. It’s not that there were no signals—many people watched a few candlesticks and still thought, "It can still be pulled back." I’ve done that too: once I held a losing position for two months’ wages, just waiting for a rebound that never came.

Livermore is right. The trades with the biggest losses are often not because you misread the market—it’s because you won’t admit you were wrong.

Today’s tape just puts this sentence on the table. No crashing, no easy riches. It’s the rhythm of slowly boiling a frog in warm water. You hesitate at 1,845, thinking, "I’ll leave when it bounces back to 1,860," and then it grinds you between 1,840 and 1,850.

Admitting you’re wrong isn’t surrender. It means stopping and waiting for the next signal.

Take a break and reset during the week—don’t keep arguing with yourself.

Write it down first.

At midnight I glanced at the gain/loss leaderboard, and the one that’s secretly up today is ETH.

The price is holding around 1,842; over the past 24 hours it’s down 1.75%. Trading volume is 500 million (5 billion CNY), and the volume has shrunk a lot.

What does low liquidity at dawn mean? With only a small amount of capital, you can push out a big bullish candle—or instantly break through support. This chart feels more like existing liquidity is drawing the lines.

RSI is at 58.2—not overbought, not oversold. MACD is arranged in a bullish pattern, but the DIF is still far from the zero axis. The Bollinger Band width is tightening to 5.1%, suggesting volatility is brewing. MA5 is holding at 1,843, MA20 at 1,837, and price is riding right on the short-term moving average.

Three seats are taken by bullish signals, and the bears haven’t given a signal. But trading volume is the weak link—without fresh money entering, existing liquidity alone can’t push through a breakout.

Key support is at 1,803, the 24-hour low. Resistance is at 1,929, the dense trading zone from last week. This middle gap is what I call the “no one’s taking the offer zone.”

If it pulls back toward 1,810, I’ll consider a small-capital long attempt. My stop-loss will be set below 1,800—if it breaks, I’ll leave. First target: 1,880; if that’s passed, then look at 1,920. The premise is that volume must keep up—an attempt to spike on shrinking volume is a fake breakout.

Just my personal plan, not a call to trade.

At 4 a.m. on Saturday, there was no buyer to catch it, and no one was dumping either. It feels like it’s waiting for a signal.

I’m going to rest for now.

At this hour, ETH is okay as long as it can hold 1,803.

At this time, it’s still following BTC.
No independent move.

If BTC doesn’t move, ETH just grinds around 1,835.
If BTC suddenly drops, ETH directly tags 1,803.
If BTC rebounds, it follows slowly—reaction is delayed by two or three minutes.

Support in the early morning: S1=1,803, the prior low.
If it breaks, it heads to 1,770.
Resistance R1=1,930—first look at this range.

RSI=46.8, slightly weak, not oversold.
MACD still has some bullish room. DIF=-10, but volumes are shrinking.
The Bollinger upper band is tightening; band width is 5.2%. The trading range is compressing.
MA5=1,835 acting as overhead pressure; price is trading below it.
MA20=1,839 is also resistance.

In a low-volume market, false breakouts to the upside are more likely.
Liquidity is low in the early morning—one big order can punch through two or three points.

If it pulls back to 1,803 and holds, I’ll consider going long with a small position.
Stop loss below 1,795.
Take profit first at 1,835; if it breaks, then look at 1,880.

If it rebounds to around 1,860, and it increases volume but still can’t break through, then the rebound is a short opportunity.
Stop loss above 1,870.
Take profit at 1,810.

Place orders in the early morning—don’t place at round-number levels.
Levels like 1,800 and 1,830 are easily swept.
Place orders at 1,795 or 1,805 to guard against stop-hunts.

The above is my personal plan and not investment advice.

This feels really tiring to watch. Taking a break.
#ETH #凌晨行情 #币圈 #Ethereum

A market at 2 a.m. is more honest than the daytime crowd.
BTC is still hovering around 63,400; at this hour, there aren’t many people staring at it anymore.

Liquidity is as thin as paper—one order of 5,000 BTC can punch a hole through the order book and drop the screen by 300 points, or lift it by 500 points.
Daily trading volume is only a few tenths of the average volume, which suggests the main players have gone to sleep; what’s left is shrewd money and retail traders holding positions through the night.

Bollinger Band bandwidth is 3.9%, indicating a tight, sideways consolidation period. This kind of structure is the most likely to produce extreme volatility in the middle of the night. Whether it turns into a “door chart” (range movement) or a spike (needle) all depends on the market maker’s mood.

RSI is 48.9—slightly weak but not in the oversold zone. MACD is still in a bullish arrangement; the DIF negative value is narrowing, and the moving averages are MA5=63,264 and MA20=63,361. The price is exactly caught between these two lines—bulls and bears are both pretending to be dead.

The real battle is between S1=62,537 and R1=65,194.
If it pierces down below 62,537, then below that, S2=62,666 has almost no turnover-based support—stop-loss orders around 66,200 will be swept clean.
If it lifts upward, then 65,150 is this week’s dense trapped-holder zone; without volume, it basically can’t get through.

My plan:
Pull back into the 62,800 to 63,300 range. If on the 15-minute timeframe there isn’t a volume-backed selloff that breaks 62,537, I’ll consider a small long position. Stop-loss will be set below 62,400. First target: 64,800; if that breaks, then look at 65,150.
If the rebound gets close to 65,000 but the volume can’t keep up, and it chops sideways on decreasing volume, only then would I consider a small short. Stop-loss above 65,300.
Use your own judgment—if you lose money, don’t come looking for me.

When placing orders at night, remember three things: widen the spacing between your orders, don’t set stops at round-number levels, and don’t bet on the “needle” after someone wakes up.
This market is really exhausting. I’m taking a break.

#BTC #凌晨行情 #币圈 #Night session

Just flipped to that passage from Soros, and suddenly remembered today’s $ETH market chart.

He says the market is always wrong.
You are both an observer and a participant.

Today $ETH 1,823: in the past 24 hours it fell 3.42%, with trading volume of 492 million USDT.
People who buy in at this point are already changing the price.
You think you’re trying to catch the bottom, but actually you’re manufacturing that bottom.

Every time prices drop, someone yells, "This time it’s different."
Every time there’s a rebound, someone believes, "The fundamentals have changed."
Soros puts it plainly: the market always self-reinforces until it turns back on itself.

Today’s chart is just yet another proof.
What you see as the "wrong," and what you participate in as the "right," are actually the same thing.

Write it down first.

Before bed, I went through today’s market picture. To be honest, today’s move had quite a lot of information.

Today, BTC ranged between 62,538 and 64,896, and finally closed at 63,154, down 1.90% for the day. The most worth watching about this move isn’t the up or down itself, but whether the trading volume kept up. Today’s volume was 1.019 billion USDT. Honestly, that’s not very active, which suggests market sentiment is still quite cautious.

ETH is a bit weaker here: down 3.02% for the day, closing at 1,826, with a fluctuation range of 1,803 to 1,894. The linkage with BTC is still very clear—if BTC doesn’t move, it’s hard for ETH to trade independently.

The strongest performer today is $DEXE : up 3.20% for the day, with volume of 36 million. This kind of move is either capital that got positioned early, or a situation where sentiment-driven competition amplifies volatility.

Today’s most core signal: whether BTC can expand volume at key levels will determine the next direction. Tomorrow I’ll focus on whether BTC’s xxx level can hold.

Did you catch any prey today? Which coin are you most watching tomorrow?

#BTC #ETH #全天复盘 #币圈

Today this move is rough: the big cake has been steadily drifting down all the way, only managing to catch its breath when it reached 62666.

BTC is currently at 62904, down more than 2 points over the past 24 hours. Trading volume is normal—there’s no panic selling—but nobody dares to step in. The MACD dead cross is widening, with the gap still growing. The DIF is getting more negative and deeper. The MA5 moving average is below the MA20, and the price is being squeezed downward between the two averages. RSI has dropped to 30.4—it's just one step away from oversold.

What this chart tells me: the weekly support at 62666 is the only “cover” for tonight. If it breaks, it’s going to start bleeding. The bulls are keeping their hands to themselves, and the bears aren’t chasing either—both sides are waiting to stir things up before the weekend.

Tomorrow is Saturday. If 62666 can’t hold, the next support to watch is around 62710, but I’m more inclined to think we’ll bounce first and then move down. Resistance is around 65600—this is basically the ceiling right now. If we pull back into the 62666–62710 zone, I’ll try a small long position, with a stop loss set below 62500 and take profit first targeting around 64000. If the bounce reaches the 65500–65600 area, I’ll consider entering a short there instead, with a stop loss above 65700 and a target back around 63500. You decide accordingly.

Who would dare to catch a flying knife like this?