I don't think we'll stay here for much longer. We've already broken the downtrend, just like we did in 2023.
Now all we need is one strong push from BTC to start outperforming Gold.
This is yet another chart showing that crypto has been trapped in one massive range since 2021.
Looking at BTC alone doesn't give you the full picture. But when you compare BTC to Gold, you can clearly see that not only ETH and the altcoins, but even BTC itself has been stuck relative to other major assets.
The Consensus: Markets expect a hold at 3.50%–3.75%.
The Trigger: Watch the wording. If Fed Chair Warsh signals a potential rate hike due to sticky oil prices, the USD will spike, forcing Crypto & Gold lower.
The Bullish Scenario: Any hint that cooling June CPI data could lead to a pause or cut will weaken the USD and rocket Crypto & Gold higher.
Trading Strategy: Volatility will be extreme. Manage your risk, or stay flat until the 2:30 PM ET press conference. 👽 #XAUUSD #forex
Since the start of 2026, BTC has followed a pattern of making a major move every 60–68 days.
The next potential breakout or breakdown is due around 10 August.
Take a look at the previous two examples:
Late 2025 to early 2026: BTC consolidated for roughly 68 days before a major breakdown. After that: Price traded sideways for another 68 days before breaking higher in mid-April, pushing into the $80k range.
We're currently about 55 days into another choppy, sideways phase.
If this pattern continues, I expect BTC to break out of this range and make a significant move within the next 10–12 days.
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