以太坊先知

Yesterday, Wosh’s speech in Jackson Hole was throughout relatively hawkish.

First, he said his interpretation of the U.S. labor market is positive, believing that the U.S. unemployment rate of 4.1% in June and July is at historically low levels.

Second, he believes the U.S. economy is overall strengthening, and emphasized that both the real economy and Wall Street have shown very strong resilience over the past few months. In his view, this is a very good sign for the U.S. economy. He also gave the AI industry as an example, saying that the current development of AI is beyond what the original supporters expected, and that profits are very attractive.

Third, the biggest point is his inflation read on the United States in recent months: although it has been falling from its high in May, he does not see a structural turning point. He emphasized that the Fed’s 2% inflation target remains firmly unchanged. He believes inflation will not naturally fall—it will require the Fed to take action. In my view, this is an indication that the Fed will likely take further rate-hiking action next.

The prediction given by Deutsche Bank after Wosh’s speech is that the Fed will raise rates by 25 bps twice in September and December.

But I think the Fed will only raise rates by 25 bps in September.

Reason one: the Fed’s current rate of 3.75_4.00 has historically been on the high side.

Reason two: as the U.S. enters the midterm election season, public dissatisfaction with the long-drawn-out U.S.-Iran war will also likely flare up. As the anti-Trump movement develops, the pressure facing the Trump administration will become increasingly prominent, forcing it to make concessions. Possibly before winter arrives, the U.S. and Iran will reach a framework-level ceasefire agreement; with conditions, the Strait of Hormuz can resume navigation. Oil prices would fall, U.S. CPI expectations would decline, and for cautious reasons the Fed would refrain from hiking in October. In December, it not only would not hike, but could even restart a cycle of rate cuts.

Reason three: the issue with U.S. Treasuries has become more prominent, forcing the Trump administration to increase tariffs and taxes and reduce war spending. Increasing tariffs faces the challenge that it cannot afford to have trade partners who are needed while seeking concessions regarding the Iran war. Cutting war spending would also trigger audits of the war department. It would all require it to end the Iran war as soon as possible. Although the quick lightning strike against Venezuela went smoothly and made a lot of money, being stuck in the Iran war has cost him an even bigger loss. A businessman-turned-Trump would be expected to stop losses in a timely manner—this is foreseeable. All of this suggests that the Fed will not raise rates multiple times.#沃什称通胀是美联储首要关注

Yesterday, CZ said he didn’t expect the tokenization of stock to come so quickly. In fact, the root source can be traced back to years of global sovereign credit oversupply. Now, income must be increased to repay the debt. When the central government can’t sustain land-finance any longer, it has to control capital outflows and, at the same time, introduce and make it easier to collect a capital gains tax. Therefore, in May this year, the administration cut off liquidity for investing in U.S. stocks. And to抢夺 this liquidity, the U.S. SEC rolled out real-time innovative exemptions for U.S. stock tokenization. The logic and connections are very clear!

CZ published a statement to characterize Sun Yuchen’s latest “big drama” as marketing. He believes using people’s privacy or personal attacks for marketing shouldn’t be allowed, and urges proper resolution.

Speech by Wachs in Jackson Hole suggests that the Fed is about to take action next. Combined with the current slowdown and deceleration in U.S. July inflation data, markets are betting that the Fed will raise rates in September—leading to broad declines across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold now!

Sun Xue First Lesson (Trading Segment) Learning Reflections

Forty-page due diligence, paid consultations—it’s very rigorous.

They emphasize fundamental analysis, and for fundamental analysis, they’re willing to spend money.

They set up a 30-million-RMB observation position to test the waters. For trading, be cautious: even if it’s a “white moonlight,” don’t go in with a heavy position right away.

Observe carefully—details like trimming your nails, the tattoos on your back, the couple from a film crew, black duct tape, and the like...

Surrogacy to have a child—then a 50-million-US-dollar heavy-position decision.

If you believe the fundamentals are terrible, then when it’s time to say NO, you must be brave enough to say NO!

A 30-million-RMB blood-loss?

No—the case must go to judicial prosecution to get the money back.

Is that all?

No—you must even sacrifice a female celebrity’s reputation in exchange for “small-essay” traffic, so you can rake in huge gains.

Profit-and-loss summary:

The observation position is a blood-loss, but no provision needs to be made. The “small-essay” priced-at-a-premium traffic blows up and brings in big money.

Learning summary:

Sun Ge observed and observed, tested the water too, and learned a lot of new tricks. The heavens-sent traffic has been earned back. The 30 million RMB still doesn’t need any provision.

Sun Ge won again—yet again—this time big time!

I only found out today that the weight of a single egg is 3.5 micrograms.

I also found out today that Jing Tian has a tattoo on her back.

Before this, I only knew that Zhang Baizhi has a tattoo on her waist area.

Looks like Sun Xue still has to learn!

Nvidia delivers better-than-expected earnings; next year’s revenue is forecast to rise another 70% (forecast 44%), and the stock price turns from down to up after hours.

US July PCE headline month-on-month rate is about 0.16%, and the core month-on-month rate is about 0.25%; on an annualized basis, they are 3.70% and 3.34%, slightly higher than market expectations of 3.6 and 3.3.

Will this wave of stock tokenization this year become a trend of the times?

Is it time to move on-chain finance forward as the next generation of mainstream financial infrastructure?
#美国加密股指数涨5.04%

As I predicted on the 12th of this month, CLUSDT has now fallen below 80!

As my forecast given in the early part of this month matched, the situation between the US and Iran should ease off before the end of August!

Jin10 Data, August 26 — Sources from Pakistan’s military and Iran’s security services told a reporter from the Russian Sputnik news agency that the US and Iran have reached agreement on the terms of a ceasefire agreement, including freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The source said, “We have reached consensus on the ceasefire agreement, including the freedom of navigation clause through the Strait of Hormuz.” The source added that both sides are expected to release relevant information within the next few days. According to the source, negotiations and a round of technical meetings will be launched under the Islamabad memorandum. (Jin10 Data App)

The situation between Iran and the U.S. and the crude oil market are developing in line with the forecast I gave you the day before yesterday—exactly as predicted.
As I said the day before yesterday: the real show will be this week.

On Tuesday, Pakistan’s military said that during a visit to Tehran, Army Chief of Staff Asim Munir held “productive” discussions with Iran regarding preventing any further escalation of conflict, restarting negotiations, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and that “significant progress” was made.

Iran and Oman issued a joint statement: they plan to establish a temporary maritime route through the Strait of Hormuz.

The main channel of the Strait of Hormuz has resumed navigation. The U.S. says it has cleared all mines.

The U.S. plans to redeploy diplomats to its Middle East embassies. Dan Shapiro, who previously served as the U.S. ambassador to Israel during the Obama administration and as a Defense Department official responsible for Middle East affairs during the Biden administration, said: “Re-staffing some of the diplomatic missions that were partially evacuated indicates that the government believes the war is approaching its end.”

The 92–93 Brent crude oil BZUSDT that I provided in my live stream over the past three days—
At the moment I am posting this, BZUSDT has already fallen below 87! #油价维持跌势

Trying... so...

The editor's logic is unbeatable!

I think the reason behind these days’ selloff in U.S. stocks like Nvidia and the rise in gold, as well as the stubborn strength of BTC and Ethereum, is actually the same thing.

That is the recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields.

Since last weekend, concerns about Treasuries have put pressure on AI and other high-tech stocks such as Nvidia. Wall Street has sold Treasuries to buy gold. And people have also been talking about the idea that the Trump administration will raise income to save Treasuries—along with expectations that its government will again increase tariffs and taxes—so, for tax-avoidance purposes, people are buying on-chain crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum!

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister briefed on the situation in the Middle East during his visit to China last week. The East China University yesterday issued a statement saying it will not take part in the Iran-related sanctions that the United States is about to release. Today, the head of Pakistan’s military, Munir, is flying to Tehran.

The good show will be this week!

Crude oil will have a very good entry opportunity!