KnowledgeBR

Today is a day to short the alts.

$XRP Forget the narratives. The purpose of Ripple, to integrate its networks with traditional payment systems (like SWIFT, for example), is that for XRP to be efficient, it needs to maintain stability, without wild fluctuations.

Imagine you want to buy a smartphone. You can pay with currency A or B.

If currency A tends to appreciate consistently.
And currency B tends to depreciate consistently (fiat currencies)

Which one would you use?

For those who like leverage, especially futures. Think of it as if you were in a casino. Are you in profit? Sell. And don't stay until the end of the day.

In the end, the house always wins.

Make partial profit. Adjust trailing stop. Wait for a pullback to re-establish position.

Do not buy above 1.34 (monitor the moving averages). Basic.

I came to buy $XRP
Between 1.31 and 1.33 (if it loses support at 1.31, assume loss and do not keep trying to buy the bottom)

To hold for a few weeks.
Take profit 1.47+

Realized profit.
Now short on the 3.

Remember that BTC CME closed at 69,480

Beware, noble adventurers.

Do not attempt to buy the dip.

For positions with losses, calculate the weighted average price (Binance provides the simple average price).

In Excel, PMP = ( Σ (P_i × Q_i) ) ÷ ( Σ Q_i )

But you need to consider the Binance fees, as they will reduce the quantity. And remember that SELLING does not reduce PMP, it only reduces the stock.

Be cautious. Money does not tolerate disrespect.

Editing: I thought but my fingers did not follow the reasoning. Regarding PMP, in positions with losses, try to reduce the PMP before realizing a loss.
Those who do not understand this concept, if they consider it important, can tell me and I will explain it better (mathematically).

To reflect a little:

Many study for years, acquiring knowledge, whether they are lawyers, doctors, engineers, and, for various reasons, do not become wealthy working in the field they specialized in.

But for some reason, these same people believe they will become wealthy through investments in a field they did not spend years studying, as if by a magic wand they will hit a unicorn.

Do not be fooled.

Do not try to guess movements, do not use leverage, do not day trade.

Make regular contributions, follow the average prices, and buy at the lows.

Buy when the cannons are firing and sell when the trumpets sound.

A long time without posting. So I want to reinforce some comments I made last year (which I probably detailed better in the post at the time).

1- One of the major catalysts for the rise in gold? When Biden froze Russian bonds due to the war with Ukraine. China thought, if tomorrow I invade Taiwan, since I am (was) the largest holder of American bonds (28%), it’s better to reallocate and exchange my t-bonds for gold (and keep the t-bills to negotiate the tariff issue, and t-notes to pressure medium to long-term agreements). The same applies to Saudi Arabia with Kuwait, India with Pakistan.
The rise in gold is occurring due to the reallocation of sovereign bonds (and the process is irreversible)

2- Moment of rise with USDT. S&P report shows that Tether has only 104% collateral backing, 4% collateral margin. 20% of the collateral is considered medium risk, 5% high. This means that if the valuation of these guarantees drops to a level where the collateral margin falls below 100%, it loses its 1:1 parity with the dollar, and then it becomes a domino effect. (To delve deeper into the subject, search on Google for the SP report from December/25, which downgraded the risk rating.

3- This is not the time for adventures, invest with caution, prudence, and knowledge.

ps: sorry for the text formatting, as you know, I continue typing my texts myself with my old and wrinkled fingers. No chatgpt…
$USDT
$USDC
$BTC

A pleasant surprise in the portfolio, I bought it at 0.008 in 03/2025. After what happened with the OM, I stopped trading and left the portfolio as it was, without modifications.

11.4 BTC. With an average price of 58k
38 SOL average price of 97.00
Less than 1 ETH at 1.9k (despite the rise, I remain cautious about the future of the network)

And several other altcoins that have done 2-7x since February. But in the end, this cycle will probably end with a loss due to the OM.

In nominal values, almost certain to remain positive.
But when deducting the cost of money, exchange rates, taxes, almost certain to have a loss.

In dollars, BTC has appreciated about 30% this year. In reais, it hasn't appreciated even 20%.

$HYPER
$PENGU
$BB

$OM
Summary of the situation, in one sentence.

"It takes years to build a reputation, and minutes to lose it."

In the case of developers, it took 17 minutes.

No matter what they say or do, without trust, no one will invest.

They can trade, but investment?

I'm not talking about a few dollars... I'm talking about real money.

Terrible day.

Disappointment.

Some years lost in a few hours.

Processing the loss.

$OM
7.263 OM turned to dust…

And just a few days ago, they created a fund to encourage projects on the network.

$OM What happened??? 60% drop in 10 minutes???

My position of over 7,000 OM turned to dust…..

That’s discouraging…

Be careful!!

A sudden drop, flash crash, is not unlikely.

Yesterday it seemed like it didn't make sense, right?

Now that everything has gone up, it starts to make sense?

Many try to learn chart analysis without ever having learned the basic principles of economics.
Trying to use methods and apply theories without ever having read about what markets, economy, and money are.

The world is not going to end. The real economy does not necessarily follow the capital market.

Do you think that because of tariffs, Americans will change their consumption culture? Will they stop buying iPhones?

Is there a lack of supply due to a lack of demand OR is there a lack of demand due to a lack of supply?

There is no hole in the world where money is destroyed and disappears. It is allocated. Companies to meet the internal demand of American consumption will adapt.

It's no use complaining about the sun; it will continue to rise every morning, whether you like it or not. So adapt and move on.

I used ChatGPT to collect some economic data, which can be checked and verified on the Federal Reserve's website (which I strongly recommend, not only on this topic but everything).
I took a screenshot that turned out poorly when trying to copy and paste, learning to use AI, haha.

The FED, with its monetary policy, defined in part by the FOMC, through the SOMA, injects dollars into the market, providing bank liquidity, and thus controlling and adjusting the dollar's monetary expansion, consequently affecting inflation.
SOMA - System Open Market Account.
FOMC - Federal Open Market Committee

The FED's balance sheet in 2020/2022 increased from about 4.5 trillion dollars to almost 9 trillion!!!

To understand, every month, the FED with the SOMA injected 60 billion dollars into the market.
In April 2020, in ONE MONTH, it injected 1.5 trillion dollars.

Since 2022, it started to reduce the pace. The reflection of so much money injected? High inflation, rising prices, stocks soaring, everyone taking on a lot of risks, liquidity exploding, everything was rising in this cycle.

In comparison:
balance 2022 8.5 trillion - monthly bond buybacks in OMO backed by MBS of 165 billion.
2023 reduction to 7.5 trillion balance and 95 billion monthly
2024 reduction to 6.5 trillion

We reach 2025, what was 65 billion monthly of dollar injection through SOMA last year has reduced to 35 billion.

And now, IN APRIL, from 35 billion it dropped to 5 billion.

Everyone expected it to return to 30~35 billion, however, with the tariffs affecting inflation, if they maintain the amount, it will increase inflation even more.

Clearly, we are without liquidity in the capital markets, we have become spoiled (since 2008 and this madness of money by the FED)

The screenshots I took from ChatGPT, I couldn't extract the text properly. Be patient, you will also grow old.

As it is a more complex topic, I tried to address it superficially. That said, on Saturday I will write my interpretation and opinion on what lies ahead (what has been said so far are data and not opinions)

can be checked: www.federalreserve.gov

I am buying.

It’s not that everything will rise, but that today, after a few months waiting for a definition of Trump’s policy, the doubt is gone and now we have facts and not conjectures.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm

Concern is not in the markets, but in the real economy.

$ACT I have never bought, but this drop of 85% in 2 days is not a reason for a monitoring tag?

Please, I ask you not to say:

The crypto market is volatile. This is not volatility. This is a collapse with or without manipulation. And those responsible for the coin either had reckless management or pure and simple incompetence.

And I beg you not to say, "you only lose if you sell."
No justification is even needed.

To those who have lost, or to those who are thinking of buying the dip, be careful ⚠️

$ACT

$PENGU
I bought it simply because I saw my grandchildren watching a cartoon about penguins on TV and then asking for a plush toy as a gift.

And

I was very interested in the simple fact that there is a brand behind the asset, without considering the production of toys, cartoons, etc.

It's not a memecoin 🙏

Or are they different brands?