Web3姑姑

#ALPHA can't get it at all 😭#空投

#ALPHA Many people are waiting for new-coin air drops. As a result, they can’t even get the old-coin air drops either, and the countdown just keeps going
Tonight at 19:00 there will be another 250 points—first come, first served. As they say again: if you can grab it, grab it. When it comes to competing on hand speed and luck, it’s here again. #空投

$LAB fell from the peak 27 to more than 0.22—are you still daring to get on board? 😂😂😂#山寨

#ALPHA Good news: the long-awaited air drop has finally arrived at 19:00 tonight
Bad news: you need 251 points, and it’s still in the form of opening mystery boxes.
I guess it’ll be around $30 plus a chicken leg 🍗. If you have points, go claim it—it’s better than just spinning endlessly 😭#空投

#美联储官员密集发声 This week may be the most critical one of July.

If you’ve still been watching BTC, U.S. stocks, or gold recently, you should not miss the key time points this week.

Kevin Warsh, the newly appointed Fed chair, will make his first appearance at Congress for semiannual monetary policy testimony over two consecutive days. Meanwhile, the U.S. June CPI and PPI data will also be released in succession, and multiple Fed officials are scheduled to speak frequently. Taken together, these events are likely to shape market expectations for the FOMC meeting at the end of July.

In recent weeks, the biggest shift in the market has been this—from debating when rate cuts might happen to starting to discuss whether the Fed could resume rate hikes.

Previously, Fed official Waller publicly said that the biggest risk has returned to inflation rather than employment. If CPI this week again comes in higher than expected, concerns about further tightening are likely to intensify.

I think what’s truly worth watching this week is not what any single official says, but the overall tone Warsh sets in his first congressional hearing.

If he continues to emphasize the “2% inflation target first” stance and downplays market expectations for rate cuts, risk assets may still face pressure in the short term. Conversely, if he acknowledges that recent energy prices have fallen and inflation pressure has eased, market sentiment could recover.

For the crypto market, in the coming days don’t just focus on the price chart.

In many cases, a single CPI release or one hearing can change the direction of the market more easily than a liquidation event costing hundreds of millions of dollars.

This week, my focus is on three key time points:

Tuesday night: U.S. June CPI data.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Warsh’s consecutive two days of congressional testimony.

Wednesday night: U.S. June PPI, and the Fed’s Beige Book.

If CPI and PPI continue to come in above expectations, and Warsh’s hawkish remarks are added to the mix, BTC and U.S. stocks may still face another round of volatility. If the inflation data cools, worries about subsequent policy could ease.

In short: what truly drives the market this week may not be the price chart, but the Fed’s attitude. Don’t wait until the data comes out to chase or panic-sell—remember the timing points first.

#美联储会议 #宏观经济 #加密货币

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#wti原油触及73美元 oil prices suddenly surged—those who are truly panicking might not be the people trading crude oil.

WTI has once again risen above $73, while Brent briefly neared $79. This time the market isn’t focused on whether “something will happen,” but on how much uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz is truly worth.

Many people are debating whether Iran has the capability to completely block the Strait of Hormuz.

But I think that’s not the main point.

As long as tensions remain high, shipping companies and insurers must reassess risk. Even if the strait isn’t fully closed, war insurance, shipping costs, and longer rerouting times will all increase—and those costs will ultimately be reflected in oil prices. Recently, the shipping insurance market has also shown that war-risk premiums related to Hormuz are still noticeably higher than pre-conflict levels.

More importantly, the information being released by both the US and Iran is still contradictory.

On one side, Trump has publicly said the Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial navigation and that it will help stabilize market sentiment; on the other, the situation in the Middle East is still volatile, and attacks on merchant vessels and military actions have not completely stopped.

That’s also why crude oil prices have jumped quickly.

What the market fears most is never bad news—it’s uncertainty.

BTC is weakening in tandem today, which is also not hard to understand. Every time geopolitical risk escalates, the first reaction from capital is usually to reduce exposure—and crypto assets are rarely able to stand apart.

However, based on historical experience, if the conflict doesn’t further escalate into a long-term supply crisis, Bitcoin often returns to its own trading logic after emotions have been released.

Right now, I’m watching one key indicator: whether WTI can hold above $73.

If oil prices keep moving higher, it suggests the market is still pricing in geopolitical risk premiums, and inflation expectations may heat up again—putting further pressure on rate-cut expectations from the Fed.

But if oil prices drop quickly, that would indicate this move is driven more by trading sentiment rather than a real long-term problem with global energy supply.

Next, it won’t be just crude oil—BTC, US stocks, and gold will all look for new direction along with oil prices.

#BTC #原油 #霍尔木兹海峡

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#比特币7月上涨9.5%创四年最佳
In July, Bitcoin delivered a long-awaited report card.
BTC rose cumulatively by about 9.5% in July, marking the best performance for the same period in nearly four years. But compared with the size of the rally, what I think is more worth paying attention to is that market sentiment has started to change.

Remember what happened not long ago?
For several consecutive days, ETF net outflows continued; macro pressure kept building; and expectations for Federal Reserve policy kept shifting back and forth. At one point, the market even believed that $60,000 would be broken through on the downside. Then in July, BTC not only regained the area around $63,000, and spot ETF capital also returned to net inflows, ending the long stretch of capital outflows.

Many people began to shout: “The bull market is back.”
But I think it’s still too early to draw that conclusion.

This round of gains looks more like the market re-confirming the support around $60,000.
What’s truly noteworthy is that whenever BTC retraced to this zone, capital kept stepping in. That indicates this level has started attracting more and more buyers—rather than the earlier pattern of panic selling all the way down.

Of course, risks haven’t disappeared.
Even though ETF funds have resumed inflows, the overall trend hasn’t yet clearly reversed. The Fed’s subsequent policy still carries uncertainty, and macro data could still bring fresh volatility.

My personal view: Bitcoin has already moved past the most pessimistic phase, but there are still a few hurdles to clear before it truly enters the main breakout/upswing phase.
If, going forward, it can continue to hold key resistance levels while ETF capital keeps flowing in steadily, then market confidence has a chance to repair further.

In one sentence: July’s 9.5% looks more like the bulls sounding the counterattack horn—not a declaration that the bull market has already won. What will ultimately determine the second-half outlook isn’t how much it has already risen, but whether money can keep coming back.

#BTC #加密货币 #宏观经济

$EVAA drop the market with 3 lines, pull an infinite number of lines—does anyone bold enough have a 0.3-ish dip buy? #山寨

Friends who are earning Alpha points, please pay attention: after $ARTX has been updated to the new mechanism, things really are much more stable now. I think this stage is still like a window period—when you can farm, go all out and farm. Once more people show up, it probably won’t feel as comfortable as it does now.
$ARTX #Alpha #Ultiland

$LAB Is this evil coin going to move toward 0.2? 😂😂 Up and down by dozens of times, what is this? #山寨 #妖币预警

#ALPHA This airdrop is really getting fewer and fewer—it's so hard to get! Only 15,000 available. Based on the number of active users, that’s 128,000, so the odds are way worse! Did everyone manage to grab one? If you can’t, you’ll just spin in place again. This week there are only two old coins to make up the numbers! #空投

$CAP not greedy, take a rebound and then leave 😃😃#山寨

$BNB Waking up, can I see BNB at 600? 😂😂😂 Should I earn a pig’s trotter rice with my mini-margin account?

Oil prices suddenly changed direction, and domestic car owners felt it first.

A few weeks ago, the market was still worried about whether the Strait of Hormuz would be shut down. International oil prices surged at one point due to geopolitical risks. But it turns out that as the U.S.-Iran peace agreement moves forward and the strait resumes navigation, market sentiment quickly flipped.

Multiple institutions have recently pointed out that as Iranian crude oil re-enters the international market, along with a large amount of crude that had been stockpiled due to prior conflicts beginning to be released, global crude oil supply is increasing rapidly. Concerns about an oversupply in 2027 have clearly intensified. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and other institutions have recently warned that if supply continues to recover while global demand growth remains weak, international oil prices could still face further downward pressure.

This shift has already started to filter through domestically.

As international crude prices continue to fall, domestic retail prices for refined oil products have been adjusted downward. Many drivers have already noticed their refueling costs decreasing. This also suggests that cost pressures in sectors such as logistics transportation, aviation, and chemicals may ease further.

But I think what the market should really pay attention to isn’t how much oil prices drop today.

It’s that the market’s trading logic has changed.

A few months ago, people were trading the “Middle East conflict”—and oil prices kept rising due to supply concerns. Now, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening and Iran’s exports gradually recovering, capital has started to trade a different story: oversupply.

This is also worth paying attention to for the crypto market.

If oil prices continue to fall, global inflationary pressure may ease further, and the pressure on central banks to maintain high interest rates could lessen. That would be a medium- to long-term positive for risk assets such as Bitcoin and U.S. stocks. But in the short term, the market still needs to watch whether global demand can absorb the新增 supply, and whether the U.S.-Iran agreement can be implemented stably.

The biggest change in this market cycle isn’t that oil prices are dropping—it’s that the market has switched from “worrying about not having enough oil” to “worrying about having too much oil.” As the risk premium gradually dissipates, capital’s focus will likely shift back toward economic growth, liquidity, and expectations for rate cuts.

In the coming months, the trajectory of oil prices is very likely not only to serve as a barometer for the energy market, but also an important variable affecting BTC, U.S. stocks, and global risk assets.

#原油 #BTC #霍尔木兹海峡 #加密货币

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Not too lucky today—I only got 2.8. How many did you all get?!#抽奖 #币安

#ALPHA No wonder nobody was fighting to get it. It took seven or eight minutes to get through; the face recognition kept spinning and spinning. In the end, only the basic version came out—$26, kind of a loss. Luckily I got my points back; otherwise, if it were new coins, I'd just be standing there staring!

The Strait of Hormuz is becoming the most sensitive card in the Iran–U.S. negotiations.

The latest reports, citing multiple media sources and people familiar with the matter, indicate that the United States has issued a clear warning to Iran: any attempt to change the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the agreement previously reached between the two sides. The U.S. also said that whether Iran fulfills its commitments regarding the Strait of Hormuz will be the first test of whether the two sides’ agreement can continue to move forward. The subsequent arrangements for freezing funds will also be tied to Iran’s compliance.

But at the same time, Iran’s stance has not softened.

According to Reuters’ latest report, Iran still insists that it should have dominant authority over maritime shipping management in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also plans to push the international community to recognize its rights over route management and charging after the current 60-day transition arrangements end. Iran’s military has even issued another warning that all tankers must comply with the routes specified by Iran, or they could face a “firm response.”

What’s truly worth attention isn’t who makes the toughest threats, but the fact that the focus of the two sides’ game has shifted.

In the past, the market worried about whether the Strait of Hormuz would shut down. Now, the contest is over who has the rule-making power.

The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne transport of crude oil. Once shipping rules change, the impact won’t be limited to oil prices—it could also affect global shipping costs, insurance expenses, and the pricing logic for the entire risk-asset complex.

Now, the market is no longer about military action—it’s about who can seize the initiative in negotiations.

As long as the Strait of Hormuz continues to allow normal passage, oil prices and global markets are unlikely to see extreme fluctuations. But if the two sides again get stuck over maritime management authority, passage rules, or fees, the market’s pricing of geopolitical risk is very likely to heat up again.

In the coming days, rather than focusing on the war of words, I’m watching three signals:

Whether the Strait of Hormuz continues to maintain normal navigation;

Whether the Iran–U.S. technical negotiations make substantive progress;

Whether Iran’s frozen assets begin to enter a process of unfreezing.

These three signals are the true key variables that will determine the next phase in the outlook for crude oil, gold, BTC, and global risk assets.

#霍尔木兹海峡 #伊朗 #BTC #宏观经济 #加密货币

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Done last night, ➕5 points have been credited. Brothers and sisters who haven’t done it yet, hurry up and do it!#ALPHA #空投

#ALPHA July's first airdrop, at 6:226, it turned out to be in the form of opening a blind box. Wait and see—will there be any surprises? #空投

$NFP opens and immediately prompts me with a notice to remove it. It will be taken down on July 10— is this a pre-takedown celebration? It’s up 146% today #NFP