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公众号《青思维》&推特@QingX51718【祼K技术】&【擅长心态与仓位管理】&【趋势交易】
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Kevin Warsh nominated as the next chair: Is it bearish or bullish for the crypto market?
The fluctuations in the global market are primarily due to investors responding to two significant changes:
The shift in decision-making style of the Federal Reserve in the coming years, along with the decline in global capital trust in dollar assets.
Warsh's nomination is a direct trigger, but the deeper reason lies in the recent acceleration of the trend to 'sell off America.'
1. Nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair: Policy uncertainty and 'hawkish' concerns.
· Core of the event: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve.
· Market interpretation: Warsh was a supporter of tightening policies during the financial crisis, and although he has recently shifted to support rate cuts, analysts believe he is 'not as dovish compared to other candidates and will tend to favor fewer rate cuts.' His policy proposals (such as supporting interest rate cuts while calling for a reduction in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size) also introduce complexity.
The shift in decision-making style of the Federal Reserve in the coming years, along with the decline in global capital trust in dollar assets.
Warsh's nomination is a direct trigger, but the deeper reason lies in the recent acceleration of the trend to 'sell off America.'
1. Nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair: Policy uncertainty and 'hawkish' concerns.
· Core of the event: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve.
· Market interpretation: Warsh was a supporter of tightening policies during the financial crisis, and although he has recently shifted to support rate cuts, analysts believe he is 'not as dovish compared to other candidates and will tend to favor fewer rate cuts.' His policy proposals (such as supporting interest rate cuts while calling for a reduction in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size) also introduce complexity.
Key Points of the Federal Reserve's Decision and Market Trend Analysis
On January 28, 2026 (Beijing time, early January 29), the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. Although this decision aligned with the market's general expectations, its content and Powell's statements were interpreted by the market as 'hawkish,' bringing new uncertainties to the cryptocurrency market.
Key points of the Federal Reserve's decision
1. Interest rate decision: Pause on rate cuts
· Decision: Maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%.
· Voting: 10 votes in favor, 2 votes against. Two board members advocated for a 25 basis point rate cut.
· Market expectations: Before the meeting, the market's expectation for a rate cut in January was extremely low, only 2.8%.
Key points of the Federal Reserve's decision
1. Interest rate decision: Pause on rate cuts
· Decision: Maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%.
· Voting: 10 votes in favor, 2 votes against. Two board members advocated for a 25 basis point rate cut.
· Market expectations: Before the meeting, the market's expectation for a rate cut in January was extremely low, only 2.8%.
Federal Reserve interest rate decision + U.S. government shutdown event, short-term operations need to be cautious!
On January 28, 2026, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical decision point overall, with a bearish trend, but there is a possibility of a technical rebound in the short term. The main feature is fierce competition between bulls and bears in a narrow range, with market sentiment being cautious.
Overview of core market dynamics
· Overall sentiment: The technical outlook is bearish, with capital flowing towards gold and the stock market. The market is sensitive to macro events (such as the potential shutdown of the U.S. government).
· Key range for Bitcoin: $86,000 - $90,000 is the current core battlefield. Heavy resistance above, with buying support below.
· Key range for Ethereum: Contesting around $3,000. Strong resistance above, requires a significant breakout.
Overview of core market dynamics
· Overall sentiment: The technical outlook is bearish, with capital flowing towards gold and the stock market. The market is sensitive to macro events (such as the potential shutdown of the U.S. government).
· Key range for Bitcoin: $86,000 - $90,000 is the current core battlefield. Heavy resistance above, with buying support below.
· Key range for Ethereum: Contesting around $3,000. Strong resistance above, requires a significant breakout.
Recent key dynamics - Market trend analysis
#以太坊巨鲸异动 #加密周期
Recent market dynamics and direct impacts
This morning (January 26), global risk assets faced a sell-off:
· Cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin once fell below $86,500, dropping more than 3% in 24 hours; Ethereum dropped to around $2,800, with a decline of over 5%. In the past 24 hours, over 200,000 people globally faced liquidation, amounting to $664 million.
· Related markets: U.S. stock index futures and the U.S. dollar index fell simultaneously, while gold broke through $5,000/ounce for the first time, and silver also hit a new high.
Core influencing factors: Three major geopolitical and economic events
This severe fluctuation was mainly triggered by the following three sudden geopolitical and economic events:
Recent market dynamics and direct impacts
This morning (January 26), global risk assets faced a sell-off:
· Cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin once fell below $86,500, dropping more than 3% in 24 hours; Ethereum dropped to around $2,800, with a decline of over 5%. In the past 24 hours, over 200,000 people globally faced liquidation, amounting to $664 million.
· Related markets: U.S. stock index futures and the U.S. dollar index fell simultaneously, while gold broke through $5,000/ounce for the first time, and silver also hit a new high.
Core influencing factors: Three major geopolitical and economic events
This severe fluctuation was mainly triggered by the following three sudden geopolitical and economic events:
The market has once again declined, and the reason is...
Understand King tweeted: The government will shut down in six days!
Latest updates on the government shutdown
According to a report by the American political news media Punchbowl News on the morning of January 26, 2026 (today):
· Core deadlock: There are serious differences between the two parties regarding the funding bill for agencies such as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Senate Democrats have stated that they will block the entire funding proposal unless DHS funding related to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is separated and renegotiated.
· Key timeline: The funding deadline is this Friday (January 30) evening. If the deadlock is not resolved, some government agencies will begin to close from that time.
Latest updates on the government shutdown
According to a report by the American political news media Punchbowl News on the morning of January 26, 2026 (today):
· Core deadlock: There are serious differences between the two parties regarding the funding bill for agencies such as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Senate Democrats have stated that they will block the entire funding proposal unless DHS funding related to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is separated and renegotiated.
· Key timeline: The funding deadline is this Friday (January 30) evening. If the deadlock is not resolved, some government agencies will begin to close from that time.
Next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision! How to respond to the volatility brought by the meeting?
#美联储何时降息？ <t-39/>#美联储议息决议
The Federal Reserve's meeting in January is widely expected not to result in a rate cut. According to the latest data from January 16, the market believes the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is as high as 95%.
Meeting specific schedule
· Meeting date: January 27 to 28, 2026 (Tuesday to Wednesday, U.S. time).
· Resolution release date: The meeting results will be announced on January 29 (Thursday).
· As is customary, the resolution statement is usually released at 3:00 AM Beijing time, followed by a possible press conference by the Federal Reserve Chair.
The Federal Reserve's meeting in January is widely expected not to result in a rate cut. According to the latest data from January 16, the market believes the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is as high as 95%.
Meeting specific schedule
· Meeting date: January 27 to 28, 2026 (Tuesday to Wednesday, U.S. time).
· Resolution release date: The meeting results will be announced on January 29 (Thursday).
· As is customary, the resolution statement is usually released at 3:00 AM Beijing time, followed by a possible press conference by the Federal Reserve Chair.
Life rarely turns around suddenly; it is more about the accumulation day by day. Without accumulating small steps, one cannot reach a thousand miles; without gathering small streams, one cannot form rivers and seas. Persisting in doing difficult yet right things will eventually lead to a qualitative leap.
What kind of habits are worth cultivating for the sake of changing our lives?
First, the habit of taking initiative
Less waiting for arrangements, more pushing oneself forward
Proactive people gain trust earlier and come into contact with key issues sooner, leading to faster growth.
Second, continuous reading
Not for the accumulation of knowledge, but for constantly calibrating judgment.
Many people get stuck because their perspective is too narrow, while those who read a lot are less likely to be trapped in one angle.
Third, persistence in exercise
Exercise may seem unrelated to growth, but it determines whether you can output in the long term.
People in poor physical condition find it difficult to sustain effort at critical junctures.
Fourth, reflection
Without reflection, experiences are just consumption.
With reflection, experiences can turn into abilities.
Real growth often occurs in those few minutes of “Where did I go wrong?”.
Fifth, the habit of recording
Recording allows you to see your changes and helps you avoid repeating mistakes.
If you always feel you haven't progressed, it's actually just that you haven't left behind traces to see the progress; recording makes it much clearer.
Sixth, long-term thinking
Willing to repeatedly do the right thing, not in a hurry for immediate returns.
This determines whether you can run to the end and see the benefits of compounding.
These habits may not seem significant in isolation, but when combined, they become a stable ascending system for a person.
Life rarely turns around suddenly; it is more about lifting oneself up day by day.
First, the habit of taking initiative
Less waiting for arrangements, more pushing oneself forward
Proactive people gain trust earlier and come into contact with key issues sooner, leading to faster growth.
Second, continuous reading
Not for the accumulation of knowledge, but for constantly calibrating judgment.
Many people get stuck because their perspective is too narrow, while those who read a lot are less likely to be trapped in one angle.
Third, persistence in exercise
Exercise may seem unrelated to growth, but it determines whether you can output in the long term.
People in poor physical condition find it difficult to sustain effort at critical junctures.
Fourth, reflection
Without reflection, experiences are just consumption.
With reflection, experiences can turn into abilities.
Real growth often occurs in those few minutes of “Where did I go wrong?”.
Fifth, the habit of recording
Recording allows you to see your changes and helps you avoid repeating mistakes.
If you always feel you haven't progressed, it's actually just that you haven't left behind traces to see the progress; recording makes it much clearer.
Sixth, long-term thinking
Willing to repeatedly do the right thing, not in a hurry for immediate returns.
This determines whether you can run to the end and see the benefits of compounding.
These habits may not seem significant in isolation, but when combined, they become a stable ascending system for a person.
Life rarely turns around suddenly; it is more about lifting oneself up day by day.
Focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on the 28th! Short-term operational suggestions for the market!
#加密市场观察 #特朗普取消对欧关税威胁
This morning, the market experienced significant fluctuations, with the main characteristics as follows:
· Key Breakthrough: BTC has broken through and stabilized above $91,000, while ETH has surpassed the $3,000 mark.
· Direct Trigger: The breakthrough triggered a large-scale short squeeze. In the past hour, approximately $149 million was liquidated across the network, with short positions accounting for over 98%, and forced liquidation buying pushed prices up.
· Macro Background: The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 98, providing a macro environment support for risk assets. Market attention is now turning to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on January 28.
This morning, the market experienced significant fluctuations, with the main characteristics as follows:
· Key Breakthrough: BTC has broken through and stabilized above $91,000, while ETH has surpassed the $3,000 mark.
· Direct Trigger: The breakthrough triggered a large-scale short squeeze. In the past hour, approximately $149 million was liquidated across the network, with short positions accounting for over 98%, and forced liquidation buying pushed prices up.
· Macro Background: The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 98, providing a macro environment support for risk assets. Market attention is now turning to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on January 28.
Continued decline or oversold rebound? Focus on the following information...
#特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 #特朗普对欧洲加征关税 #加密市场观察
Key financial dynamics
· AI industry technology impact
· Event: The low-cost AI model of DeepSeek-R1 raises concerns about a bubble in computing power demand.
· Impact Path: The leading AI computing power companies (like Nvidia) see stock prices plummet → Market risk appetite sharply declines → Funds withdraw from high-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
· Market Performance: On January 26, Bitcoin fell over 6% along with Nvidia and TSMC.
· Geopolitical and trade tensions
· Event: The US and Europe are embroiled in a sovereignty dispute over Greenland, with the US threatening to impose tariffs.
· Impact Path: Triggering global trade uncertainty → Market volatility increases, risk aversion rises → High-risk crypto assets come under pressure.
Key financial dynamics
· AI industry technology impact
· Event: The low-cost AI model of DeepSeek-R1 raises concerns about a bubble in computing power demand.
· Impact Path: The leading AI computing power companies (like Nvidia) see stock prices plummet → Market risk appetite sharply declines → Funds withdraw from high-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
· Market Performance: On January 26, Bitcoin fell over 6% along with Nvidia and TSMC.
· Geopolitical and trade tensions
· Event: The US and Europe are embroiled in a sovereignty dispute over Greenland, with the US threatening to impose tariffs.
· Impact Path: Triggering global trade uncertainty → Market volatility increases, risk aversion rises → High-risk crypto assets come under pressure.
Relief from Greenland Tariff Crisis, Market Rebounds! Key Attention to Tonight's PCE to Determine Market Direction!
#地缘政治与加密 #PCE数据来袭
🌍 Greenland Incident and Its Impact
Overview of Greenland
· Geographic Location and Status: Greenland is the world's largest island. It is an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, possessing a high degree of self-governance, but defense and foreign affairs are still managed by the Danish government.
· Strategic Value: Due to its strategic location in the Arctic, rich key mineral resources (such as rare earths), and potential military value, Greenland has long been of international interest.
· Historical Relationship with the United States: America's interest in Greenland dates back to the 19th century, and it currently has military bases on the island. In recent years, former U.S. President Trump has repeatedly suggested wanting to make Greenland a part of the United States, primarily for reasons of national security and strategic significance, but this idea has been opposed by Denmark and the local residents of Greenland.
🌍 Greenland Incident and Its Impact
Overview of Greenland
· Geographic Location and Status: Greenland is the world's largest island. It is an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, possessing a high degree of self-governance, but defense and foreign affairs are still managed by the Danish government.
· Strategic Value: Due to its strategic location in the Arctic, rich key mineral resources (such as rare earths), and potential military value, Greenland has long been of international interest.
· Historical Relationship with the United States: America's interest in Greenland dates back to the 19th century, and it currently has military bases on the island. In recent years, former U.S. President Trump has repeatedly suggested wanting to make Greenland a part of the United States, primarily for reasons of national security and strategic significance, but this idea has been opposed by Denmark and the local residents of Greenland.
Tariff Threat, Japan's Rate Hike, Chain Liquidation, Multiple Overlaps Trigger Sharp Decline!
#加密市场观察 #关税风云 #日本加息
Main reasons for the sharp decline
1. Macro events trigger risk aversion
· US Tariff Threat: The main trigger is former President Trump's proposal to impose tariffs on eight European countries. This has raised global market concerns about escalating trade tensions.
· Market Chain Reaction: This news has led to funds flowing out of risk assets like Bitcoin and into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
2. Uncertainty in regulation and monetary policy
· Regulatory Delay: A key cryptocurrency market regulatory bill discussion in the United States has been postponed, increasing policy uncertainty.
Main reasons for the sharp decline
1. Macro events trigger risk aversion
· US Tariff Threat: The main trigger is former President Trump's proposal to impose tariffs on eight European countries. This has raised global market concerns about escalating trade tensions.
· Market Chain Reaction: This news has led to funds flowing out of risk assets like Bitcoin and into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
2. Uncertainty in regulation and monetary policy
· Regulatory Delay: A key cryptocurrency market regulatory bill discussion in the United States has been postponed, increasing policy uncertainty.
Stable compound interest is the foundation for truly making big money. The reasoning seems to be understood, but unfortunately, most people enter the market after hearing the myths of wealth in the crypto world, hoping to get rich overnight. This is also the final outcome for many retail investors: either getting rich or getting liquidated. The myth of overnight wealth has been passed down and remains strong, but can you see any of the rich myths that are still alive? Therefore, what we need to do is to become traders who quietly make money and live long, rather than being legends who make quick profits and don't last long. Learn, implement, and align with Cat Brother ✌️
Beginning of 2024, investing 10,000 yuan, how to earn 16.2 billion yuan:
January Shen Zhonghua A +168% 27,000 yuan
February Ke Lai Electromechanical +207% 83,000 yuan
March Jin Dun Shares +200% 250,000 yuan
April Zheng Dan Shares +361% 1,140,000 yuan
May Ying Li Shares +177% 3,180,000 yuan
June Yi Hao New Materials +90% 6,050,000 yuan
July Da Zhong Transportation +255% 21,550,000 yuan
August Shenzhen Hua Qiang +185% 61,570,000 yuan
September Yin Zhi Jie +285% 237,090,000 yuan
October Guang Zhi Technology +338% 1,039,760,000 yuan
November Ri Chu Dong Fang +393% 5,135,131,000 yuan
December Zhong Bai Group +215% 16,223,920,000 yuan
This is only stocks; in the cryptocurrency industry, it's even crazier, a meme coin can increase thousands of times in a day.
Everyone knows that such operations are simply impossible, yet many people demand such services, wanting to get rich overnight. Is that realistic?
Face trading correctly, instead of thinking about buying lottery tickets every day. I have never seen anyone around me make big money from lottery tickets, but there are quite a few people around me making money through trading.
January Shen Zhonghua A +168% 27,000 yuan
February Ke Lai Electromechanical +207% 83,000 yuan
March Jin Dun Shares +200% 250,000 yuan
April Zheng Dan Shares +361% 1,140,000 yuan
May Ying Li Shares +177% 3,180,000 yuan
June Yi Hao New Materials +90% 6,050,000 yuan
July Da Zhong Transportation +255% 21,550,000 yuan
August Shenzhen Hua Qiang +185% 61,570,000 yuan
September Yin Zhi Jie +285% 237,090,000 yuan
October Guang Zhi Technology +338% 1,039,760,000 yuan
November Ri Chu Dong Fang +393% 5,135,131,000 yuan
December Zhong Bai Group +215% 16,223,920,000 yuan
This is only stocks; in the cryptocurrency industry, it's even crazier, a meme coin can increase thousands of times in a day.
Everyone knows that such operations are simply impossible, yet many people demand such services, wanting to get rich overnight. Is that realistic?
Face trading correctly, instead of thinking about buying lottery tickets every day. I have never seen anyone around me make big money from lottery tickets, but there are quite a few people around me making money through trading.
Every major drop actually brings opportunities. For $LTC , just wait for a pullback to buy and ambush.
Tariff Tensions Lead to Flash Crash in Early Trading! Trading Suggestions for This Week!
The "flash crash" in the crypto market on January 19, 2026, was primarily triggered by sudden geopolitical and tariff tensions between Europe and the United States. The market's short-term trend was thus disrupted, but on-chain data also showed positive signs of bottom-fishing.
📉 In-depth Analysis of Sudden Drop Causes
This decline is a typical external macro risk shock, with reasons concentrated on the following three points:
1. Direct Trigger: Escalating Tariff Threats from Europe and the United States
· Event: Last weekend, former U.S. President Trump issued tariff threats to several European countries regarding Greenland. In response, the European Union is considering imposing tariffs on U.S. goods worth €93 billion.
📉 In-depth Analysis of Sudden Drop Causes
This decline is a typical external macro risk shock, with reasons concentrated on the following three points:
1. Direct Trigger: Escalating Tariff Threats from Europe and the United States
· Event: Last weekend, former U.S. President Trump issued tariff threats to several European countries regarding Greenland. In response, the European Union is considering imposing tariffs on U.S. goods worth €93 billion.
#板块轮动 The metaverse sector $SAND has just started a daily level rise.
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SANDUSDT
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+2.44USDT
US-Iran Situation, Powell Under Investigation, Federal Reserve Meeting, How Do Multiple Overlaps Deeply Impact the Crypto Space?
#加密市场观察 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #美联储利率决议即将公布
US-Iran Tensions (Geopolitical Risk)
· Latest Developments: The situation is highly volatile. The US has taken precautionary measures such as partial troop withdrawals from the Middle East, but President Trump has recently signaled 'tactical de-escalation,' stating that actions are on hold due to Iran's suspension of some executions. Regional allies are also actively mediating to avoid a full-blown conflict.
· Impact Pathways on the Crypto Market:
1. Initial Shock (Risk Model): If a sudden military action occurs, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are likely to be sold off in the first 24-72 hours, similar to high-risk assets, in exchange for liquidity. Altcoins may face even greater declines.
US-Iran Tensions (Geopolitical Risk)
· Latest Developments: The situation is highly volatile. The US has taken precautionary measures such as partial troop withdrawals from the Middle East, but President Trump has recently signaled 'tactical de-escalation,' stating that actions are on hold due to Iran's suspension of some executions. Regional allies are also actively mediating to avoid a full-blown conflict.
· Impact Pathways on the Crypto Market:
1. Initial Shock (Risk Model): If a sudden military action occurs, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are likely to be sold off in the first 24-72 hours, similar to high-risk assets, in exchange for liquidity. Altcoins may face even greater declines.
LTC is the best target for bottom fishing in a bear market, but not now. If it drops to 50, I will go all in without hesitation.
TURN $10 to $100 above with $LTC BTW JAN TO MARCH.
Use this below trading plan to earn massively for this Q1 via Litecoin.
Use this below for your entries capital management, don't just enter with all your capital at once and don't stay waiting for the lowest price.
Entry 1: $72 – $75 (current region) → 30%
Entry 2: $66 – $69 → 40%
Entry 3: $58 – $62 (only if panic drop) → 30%
If on Future, use 3X Leverage only, by February/March you must have been in above 100% profit. Take profit early and don't be greedy. Close the trade and never reopen Long position this year again🤓. See the chat plan attached. Follow for more insight #MarketRebound #litcoin #cryptobull
{future}(LTCUSDT)
Use this below trading plan to earn massively for this Q1 via Litecoin.
Use this below for your entries capital management, don't just enter with all your capital at once and don't stay waiting for the lowest price.
Entry 1: $72 – $75 (current region) → 30%
Entry 2: $66 – $69 → 40%
Entry 3: $58 – $62 (only if panic drop) → 30%
If on Future, use 3X Leverage only, by February/March you must have been in above 100% profit. Take profit early and don't be greedy. Close the trade and never reopen Long position this year again🤓. See the chat plan attached. Follow for more insight #MarketRebound #litcoin #cryptobull
{future}(LTCUSDT)
$LTC Trading options are very important. The best options are Bitcoin, followed by Ethereum and spicy strips. Many people say to invest in new coins rather than old ones, but from a safety and stability perspective, old antique coins are the best choice. Because they have consensus and will not go to zero.
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LTCUSDC
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