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#美国8月adp就业创1月来最小增幅 ADP has gotten weak, adding only 38,000 in August.
Tonight I’ll watch the initial jobless claims; tomorrow I’ll look at the nonfarm payrolls.
Currently, the market expects initial claims to be around 205,000.
If tonight’s figure comes out above 210,000, it would be clearly weak and would further strengthen the narrative of “job growth cooling.”
If tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls come in below 400,000, or the unemployment rate rises, then that would basically confirm that this round of employment slowdown isn’t a false move.
The logic is actually simple:
Continuous softness in employment → reduced pressure for the Fed to hike → the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields can easily ease → risk appetite rises → assets like BTC benefit.
Personally, I think the data is unlikely to be very strong.
But don’t rush to place a heavy bet yet—wait for tonight’s initial claims and decide on positioning more safely.
Tonight I’ll watch the initial jobless claims; tomorrow I’ll look at the nonfarm payrolls.
Currently, the market expects initial claims to be around 205,000.
If tonight’s figure comes out above 210,000, it would be clearly weak and would further strengthen the narrative of “job growth cooling.”
If tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls come in below 400,000, or the unemployment rate rises, then that would basically confirm that this round of employment slowdown isn’t a false move.
The logic is actually simple:
Continuous softness in employment → reduced pressure for the Fed to hike → the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields can easily ease → risk appetite rises → assets like BTC benefit.
Personally, I think the data is unlikely to be very strong.
But don’t rush to place a heavy bet yet—wait for tonight’s initial claims and decide on positioning more safely.
Google is scheduled to launch the Gemini 3.8 Flash reasoning model in early September 2026, making it available to Gemini Pro and Ultra subscribers.
This Flash product line has long focused on lightweight design, low cost, and high speed. This time, it directly brands itself as a “reasoning model,” effectively bringing deeper reasoning capabilities down into high-frequency, everyday tasks—such as action recommendations, text analysis, and complex coding.
For people who are used to writing code with AI and doing text analysis, this kind of model feels more like foundational infrastructure than a flagship version that’s only for occasional showy demos. The official messaging also emphasizes that its goal is to make answers for high-frequency use cases more reliable, more comprehensive, and smoother in terms of execution efficiency.
As of now, publicly available information does not include technical parameters, pricing, or details on benchmark performance. So in the short term, it looks more like a strategic move by Google within its subscription ecosystem. Only later—through technical specs, call costs, and real-world feedback—will we be able to judge how much weight it truly carries in production-grade agents and practical AI tools.
This Flash product line has long focused on lightweight design, low cost, and high speed. This time, it directly brands itself as a “reasoning model,” effectively bringing deeper reasoning capabilities down into high-frequency, everyday tasks—such as action recommendations, text analysis, and complex coding.
For people who are used to writing code with AI and doing text analysis, this kind of model feels more like foundational infrastructure than a flagship version that’s only for occasional showy demos. The official messaging also emphasizes that its goal is to make answers for high-frequency use cases more reliable, more comprehensive, and smoother in terms of execution efficiency.
As of now, publicly available information does not include technical parameters, pricing, or details on benchmark performance. So in the short term, it looks more like a strategic move by Google within its subscription ecosystem. Only later—through technical specs, call costs, and real-world feedback—will we be able to judge how much weight it truly carries in production-grade agents and practical AI tools.
In late August 2026, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly urged Japan to raise interest rates, aiming to curb the yen’s continued weakness. This moment directly exposes the “easily influenced by external factors” nature of fiat monetary policy.
From a market perspective, once Japan chooses to raise rates and the yen strengthens, long-term reliance on low-interest-yen funding and carry trades may force positions to be liquidated. Historically, the rate hike in August 2024 was accompanied by a noticeable pullback across stocks, bonds, and crypto assets.
In other words, in the short term, Bitcoin is unlikely to stand apart. When funds de-leverage, it may be sold off alongside other risk assets. But over longer cycles, its issuance schedule is written into the code: the block subsidy is cut roughly every four years in half. This fixed supply path sharply contrasts with fiat currency, which can be “spoken to” at any time.
What to watch next is not only whether Japan will genuinely raise rates, but also the size of the yen carry trade positions and how quickly they respond. These macro variables determine whether this will be another round of short-term volatility or a deeper reassessment of risk.
From a market perspective, once Japan chooses to raise rates and the yen strengthens, long-term reliance on low-interest-yen funding and carry trades may force positions to be liquidated. Historically, the rate hike in August 2024 was accompanied by a noticeable pullback across stocks, bonds, and crypto assets.
In other words, in the short term, Bitcoin is unlikely to stand apart. When funds de-leverage, it may be sold off alongside other risk assets. But over longer cycles, its issuance schedule is written into the code: the block subsidy is cut roughly every four years in half. This fixed supply path sharply contrasts with fiat currency, which can be “spoken to” at any time.
What to watch next is not only whether Japan will genuinely raise rates, but also the size of the yen carry trade positions and how quickly they respond. These macro variables determine whether this will be another round of short-term volatility or a deeper reassessment of risk.
The UK National Crime Agency (NCA) froze approximately $13.6 million in January 2025. The money is sponsorship payments that the crypto fantasy game Sorare made to the Premier League, held in the Premier League’s account at Barclays Bank.
The Premier League is not accused of wrongdoing. The NCA mainly acted under the Proceeds of Crime Act, aiming to prevent any potential third-party criminal activity related to these funds (including suspicions related to gambling and money laundering) from moving the money during the investigation. In other words, a traditional sports league may simply be the recipient of the funds, yet it has to bear the compliance risk of having its account passively “locked.”
Looking further back, Sorare and the Premier League signed a four-year sponsorship agreement in January 2023 worth about $163 million in total. The amount frozen this time is the first installment. This turns a flagship collaboration that was once seen as a sign of “crypto going mainstream” into a case study of regulatory intervention.
For the crypto industry, this serves as a reminder to all projects aiming to reach the public by sponsoring sports events: it’s not only the sponsorship amount that matters, but more importantly the source of funds, the product model, and whether there are any issues that could relate to gambling or money-laundering suspicions—everything will be scrutinized more intensely. What’s even more worth watching next is whether sports leagues will tighten their stance toward crypto sponsorship, or whether project teams will proactively get compliance ahead of the curve.
The Premier League is not accused of wrongdoing. The NCA mainly acted under the Proceeds of Crime Act, aiming to prevent any potential third-party criminal activity related to these funds (including suspicions related to gambling and money laundering) from moving the money during the investigation. In other words, a traditional sports league may simply be the recipient of the funds, yet it has to bear the compliance risk of having its account passively “locked.”
Looking further back, Sorare and the Premier League signed a four-year sponsorship agreement in January 2023 worth about $163 million in total. The amount frozen this time is the first installment. This turns a flagship collaboration that was once seen as a sign of “crypto going mainstream” into a case study of regulatory intervention.
For the crypto industry, this serves as a reminder to all projects aiming to reach the public by sponsoring sports events: it’s not only the sponsorship amount that matters, but more importantly the source of funds, the product model, and whether there are any issues that could relate to gambling or money-laundering suspicions—everything will be scrutinized more intensely. What’s even more worth watching next is whether sports leagues will tighten their stance toward crypto sponsorship, or whether project teams will proactively get compliance ahead of the curve.
#比特币守稳78000美元上方 8月 this wave, BTC is indeed impressive。
At the beginning of the month, it was still trading sideways around $62,000–$65,000, but after August 19 it suddenly accelerated. In just three days, it surged from around $65,000 all the way to nearly $78,000, and the intra-month high reached $81,300。
As August wrapped up, BTC was up about 23% in total, completing a clearly visible price correction/repair cycle。
But entering September, what’s truly worth watching isn’t “how much more it can rise,” but rather:
Can the $78,000 level be held, and can $80,000 be reclaimed?
For the short term, focus on two key zones:
📍 $80,000–$81,000: resistance overhead
📍 $72,000–$75,000: support below
Another major variable in September is macro data。
September 4 Non-Farm Payrolls, September 11 CPI, and September 17 FOMC—expectations around employment, inflation, and rate cuts may affect BTC’s direction in turn。
If the data continues to cool, market expectations for easing could heat up; if the data strengthens again, BTC volatility may also increase。
So, August was about correction/repair, while September is about whether levels can be defended。
Next, keep an eye on two things:
whether $78,000 can be held, and whether BTC can reclaim $80,000。
The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky; invest cautiously.
At the beginning of the month, it was still trading sideways around $62,000–$65,000, but after August 19 it suddenly accelerated. In just three days, it surged from around $65,000 all the way to nearly $78,000, and the intra-month high reached $81,300。
As August wrapped up, BTC was up about 23% in total, completing a clearly visible price correction/repair cycle。
But entering September, what’s truly worth watching isn’t “how much more it can rise,” but rather:
Can the $78,000 level be held, and can $80,000 be reclaimed?
For the short term, focus on two key zones:
📍 $80,000–$81,000: resistance overhead
📍 $72,000–$75,000: support below
Another major variable in September is macro data。
September 4 Non-Farm Payrolls, September 11 CPI, and September 17 FOMC—expectations around employment, inflation, and rate cuts may affect BTC’s direction in turn。
If the data continues to cool, market expectations for easing could heat up; if the data strengthens again, BTC volatility may also increase。
So, August was about correction/repair, while September is about whether levels can be defended。
Next, keep an eye on two things:
whether $78,000 can be held, and whether BTC can reclaim $80,000。
The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky; invest cautiously.
Verified
Fireblocks custody transferred approximately 30 million USD1 to Binance within 15 hours—this scale of stablecoin routing often suggests there’s an entire underlying funding plan.
USD1 is a stablecoin tied to projects associated with Trump; it already carries a political label. Now it is being centrally packaged and deposited into a leading exchange by an institutional custodian, effectively tying political narratives to liquidity at the exchange level.
The specific intended use has not been officially explained so far. On-chain, we only see funds flowing from the custodian to the exchange, but we don’t see where they go next. In general, such crediting could correspond to market making, OTC settlement, or compliant reserves—but in this case, no one can say for sure which one it is.
In an environment where stablecoins are gradually being integrated into real payment scenarios, exchanges are exploring stock tokenization, and multi-asset services are expanding, the entry of a large amount of politically related stablecoins could affect future compliance and market structure. Whether we will continue to see sustained inflows and more institutional participation afterward is a variable worth watching.
USD1 is a stablecoin tied to projects associated with Trump; it already carries a political label. Now it is being centrally packaged and deposited into a leading exchange by an institutional custodian, effectively tying political narratives to liquidity at the exchange level.
The specific intended use has not been officially explained so far. On-chain, we only see funds flowing from the custodian to the exchange, but we don’t see where they go next. In general, such crediting could correspond to market making, OTC settlement, or compliant reserves—but in this case, no one can say for sure which one it is.
In an environment where stablecoins are gradually being integrated into real payment scenarios, exchanges are exploring stock tokenization, and multi-asset services are expanding, the entry of a large amount of politically related stablecoins could affect future compliance and market structure. Whether we will continue to see sustained inflows and more institutional participation afterward is a variable worth watching.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wosh, in his August 28 Jackson Hole speech, laid the groundwork for the key variable that would shape the September FOMC meeting three weeks later by putting signals of “default rate hikes” on the table early.
Former Vice Chair Donald Cohn’s interpretation is straightforward: the old thinking was “lean toward holding steady unless the data proves it’s necessary,” whereas now it has shifted to “default to further rate hikes unless the data argues against it.” In other words, a pause is no longer the baseline—it’s the exception that now requires additional justification.
Another line from Wosh’s speech—“it’s hard to describe the current broad financial conditions as ‘tight’”—is effectively hinting that, in his view, the current environment has not yet amounted to genuine tightening. This kind of statement will make markets in the coming weeks more willing to treat “keeping rates restrictive for longer” as the baseline scenario.
But whether the Fed will or won’t raise rates in September is not an easy choice for the central bank either: raising rates could put it in clear opposition to the White House in the weeks leading up to the midterm elections; not raising rates could allow previously quelled doubts to resurface. For market participants, the more practical question is how to reassess the pricing of interest rates and risk assets in an environment where this “default logic” has been rewritten.
Former Vice Chair Donald Cohn’s interpretation is straightforward: the old thinking was “lean toward holding steady unless the data proves it’s necessary,” whereas now it has shifted to “default to further rate hikes unless the data argues against it.” In other words, a pause is no longer the baseline—it’s the exception that now requires additional justification.
Another line from Wosh’s speech—“it’s hard to describe the current broad financial conditions as ‘tight’”—is effectively hinting that, in his view, the current environment has not yet amounted to genuine tightening. This kind of statement will make markets in the coming weeks more willing to treat “keeping rates restrictive for longer” as the baseline scenario.
But whether the Fed will or won’t raise rates in September is not an easy choice for the central bank either: raising rates could put it in clear opposition to the White House in the weeks leading up to the midterm elections; not raising rates could allow previously quelled doubts to resurface. For market participants, the more practical question is how to reassess the pricing of interest rates and risk assets in an environment where this “default logic” has been rewritten.
Over the past two weeks, the total liquidation in the crypto market has exceeded $9.71 billion. Of that, short positions account for about $6.55 billion, while long positions are about $3.16 billion—effectively, both longs and shorts have repeatedly been pinned to the ground and dragged through the mud by the market.
In other words, the trend isn’t a one-way takeover that wipes out one side; it’s a repeated harvest amid big swings: when prices rise, shorts get concentrated and wiped out in mass liquidations, and when prices pull back, longs are also cleared by a large margin. The direction isn’t especially clear, but what remains consistent is that there’s still a huge amount of leverage piled up in the system.
More subtly, the Fear & Greed Index is currently at 69, which places it in the “Greed” range. After a liquidation event of this scale on both sides, sentiment is still relatively optimistic. This suggests that a lot of capital is treating this round as a routine shuffle rather than a risk signal.
Under this kind of high-leverage, overheated sentiment structure, once there’s an adjustment to tokenomics on the project side—or geopolitical uncertainty like the Strait of Hormuz—the probability of amplified volatility increases. Going forward, what matters isn’t just price, but whether leverage has actually come down.
In other words, the trend isn’t a one-way takeover that wipes out one side; it’s a repeated harvest amid big swings: when prices rise, shorts get concentrated and wiped out in mass liquidations, and when prices pull back, longs are also cleared by a large margin. The direction isn’t especially clear, but what remains consistent is that there’s still a huge amount of leverage piled up in the system.
More subtly, the Fear & Greed Index is currently at 69, which places it in the “Greed” range. After a liquidation event of this scale on both sides, sentiment is still relatively optimistic. This suggests that a lot of capital is treating this round as a routine shuffle rather than a risk signal.
Under this kind of high-leverage, overheated sentiment structure, once there’s an adjustment to tokenomics on the project side—or geopolitical uncertainty like the Strait of Hormuz—the probability of amplified volatility increases. Going forward, what matters isn’t just price, but whether leverage has actually come down.
NVIDIA was reportedly preparing a US political action committee called NVPAC around August 27, 2026, with voluntary donations from eligible employees, specifically intended to support candidates at the federal level in the United States.
In other words, the money appears to be coming from individual employees, but the vehicle is a PAC named after the company. Its full name is the “NVIDIA Corporation Employees Federal Political Action Committee.” The backdrop also overlaps with sensitive issues such as AI regulation and chip export controls.
This design, on the one hand, helps sidestep public pressure over “direct corporate donations.” On the other hand, it also invites questions: are employees expressing their own political preferences, or are they voting on behalf of their employer’s demands regarding regulatory and export policies?
For the AI and semiconductor industries as a whole, if leading companies increasingly follow a path of “employee fundraising + PAC,” policy bargaining could become more institutionalized. But it would also add another layer to the competition—one that uses political tools alongside technical rivalry. How regulators draw the boundary going forward is something worth monitoring.
In other words, the money appears to be coming from individual employees, but the vehicle is a PAC named after the company. Its full name is the “NVIDIA Corporation Employees Federal Political Action Committee.” The backdrop also overlaps with sensitive issues such as AI regulation and chip export controls.
This design, on the one hand, helps sidestep public pressure over “direct corporate donations.” On the other hand, it also invites questions: are employees expressing their own political preferences, or are they voting on behalf of their employer’s demands regarding regulatory and export policies?
For the AI and semiconductor industries as a whole, if leading companies increasingly follow a path of “employee fundraising + PAC,” policy bargaining could become more institutionalized. But it would also add another layer to the competition—one that uses political tools alongside technical rivalry. How regulators draw the boundary going forward is something worth monitoring.
BTC surged past $80,000 and then fell back—there’s so much good news, so why can’t it break out?
Over the past couple of days, BTC’s been a bit frustrating to watch.
PCE came in on the hot side, Nvidia’s earnings again beat expectations, and there are about $6.4 billion worth of BTC options expiring on Friday.
News comes one after another: BTC pushed up toward $80,000, then turned around and slid back.
The sell pressure above $80,000 doesn’t seem to have fully been digested yet.
With PCE still running a bit hot, the market has become more cautious about expectations for rate cuts, so chasing breakout entries naturally gets tempered.
And even with Nvidia’s performance so strong, risk appetite hasn’t been fully ignited—this also suggests the market’s reaction to good news isn’t as fierce as earlier.
Add the large options expiry on Friday, and seeing these back-and-forth sweeps over the last few days isn’t really surprising.
Right now, when I watch the chart, I focus on three signals:
Can BTC hold above $80,000;
Is there clear volume expansion when it breaks through;
And is spot capital actually moving in.
Once all three show up, it’s much easier to feel comfortable staying bullish for a bit longer.
If it only spikes near $80,000 and then keeps pulling back, I’ll keep waiting.
After all, it’s already risen from $60,000 to here—so this isn’t exactly a low position anymore.
At lower levels, you can speculate a bit; at higher levels, you need to see whether the market gives confirmation.
The real question worth asking now is just one:
Above $80,000, how much capital is still willing to step in to buy?
For market information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile—please make decisions carefully.#英伟达营收超预期股价涨4% #比特币64亿美元期权将到期
Over the past couple of days, BTC’s been a bit frustrating to watch.
PCE came in on the hot side, Nvidia’s earnings again beat expectations, and there are about $6.4 billion worth of BTC options expiring on Friday.
News comes one after another: BTC pushed up toward $80,000, then turned around and slid back.
The sell pressure above $80,000 doesn’t seem to have fully been digested yet.
With PCE still running a bit hot, the market has become more cautious about expectations for rate cuts, so chasing breakout entries naturally gets tempered.
And even with Nvidia’s performance so strong, risk appetite hasn’t been fully ignited—this also suggests the market’s reaction to good news isn’t as fierce as earlier.
Add the large options expiry on Friday, and seeing these back-and-forth sweeps over the last few days isn’t really surprising.
Right now, when I watch the chart, I focus on three signals:
Can BTC hold above $80,000;
Is there clear volume expansion when it breaks through;
And is spot capital actually moving in.
Once all three show up, it’s much easier to feel comfortable staying bullish for a bit longer.
If it only spikes near $80,000 and then keeps pulling back, I’ll keep waiting.
After all, it’s already risen from $60,000 to here—so this isn’t exactly a low position anymore.
At lower levels, you can speculate a bit; at higher levels, you need to see whether the market gives confirmation.
The real question worth asking now is just one:
Above $80,000, how much capital is still willing to step in to buy?
For market information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile—please make decisions carefully.#英伟达营收超预期股价涨4% #比特币64亿美元期权将到期
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $314.3 million in net inflows on August 25, according to another data provider, marking the seventh consecutive day of net fund inflows. On the same day, spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded net inflows of about $179.8 million.
Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev believes that this rebound is driven more by spot holdings and ETFs. Open positions denominated in coin (the underlying asset) declined back to a one-month low after an initial rise, suggesting that the presence of high-leverage funds is waning.
In other words, the market is being supported more by funds that are willing to build positions gradually through compliant products, rather than by a group of short-term traders wielding leverage of a dozen times or more. This type of structure carries relatively more controllable risk in terms of potential cascading liquidations.
Of course, a “healthier” funding structure does not mean price will move in only one direction. The upward pace may be slower, and pullbacks will still occur. The key to watch next is whether these ETF net inflows can be sustained and whether they will expand to include more crypto assets.
Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev believes that this rebound is driven more by spot holdings and ETFs. Open positions denominated in coin (the underlying asset) declined back to a one-month low after an initial rise, suggesting that the presence of high-leverage funds is waning.
In other words, the market is being supported more by funds that are willing to build positions gradually through compliant products, rather than by a group of short-term traders wielding leverage of a dozen times or more. This type of structure carries relatively more controllable risk in terms of potential cascading liquidations.
Of course, a “healthier” funding structure does not mean price will move in only one direction. The upward pace may be slower, and pullbacks will still occur. The key to watch next is whether these ETF net inflows can be sustained and whether they will expand to include more crypto assets.
[There is a buy order for $78 million under BTC, and it has been sitting there for 38 hours…]
This money hasn’t been canceled yet.
Now BTC is around $78,000, and it’s getting closer.
I just checked the AiCoin PRO data: on the 45-minute timeframe, BTC is testing the EMA55. If EMA55 can’t hold, first look at EMA89: $78,435. Below that is the area where this large order sits.
On Binance’s BTC perpetuals, there are currently 5 buy orders sitting between $77,088 and $77,788, totaling $78.17 million. All of them have been in place for more than 1 day and 14 hours.
Four of them are placed at:
$77,088 / $77,288 / $77,488 / $77,688
They’re exactly spaced every $200, and the order times are also fairly close.
Looking at the order book, this placement does look like layered orders.
However, just because the orders are sitting there all the time doesn’t necessarily mean they will get filled. What matters more is whether this $78 million is still there if BTC drops further.
If BTC reclaims the moving average, the first targets above are $79,945—$80,000.
For tonight’s price action, I will first keep an eye on the orders below.
The above is only market data observation and personal opinion, and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto asset prices can fluctuate significantly—please be mindful of risks.
#比特币受阻于81000美元50周均线
This money hasn’t been canceled yet.
Now BTC is around $78,000, and it’s getting closer.
I just checked the AiCoin PRO data: on the 45-minute timeframe, BTC is testing the EMA55. If EMA55 can’t hold, first look at EMA89: $78,435. Below that is the area where this large order sits.
On Binance’s BTC perpetuals, there are currently 5 buy orders sitting between $77,088 and $77,788, totaling $78.17 million. All of them have been in place for more than 1 day and 14 hours.
Four of them are placed at:
$77,088 / $77,288 / $77,488 / $77,688
They’re exactly spaced every $200, and the order times are also fairly close.
Looking at the order book, this placement does look like layered orders.
However, just because the orders are sitting there all the time doesn’t necessarily mean they will get filled. What matters more is whether this $78 million is still there if BTC drops further.
If BTC reclaims the moving average, the first targets above are $79,945—$80,000.
For tonight’s price action, I will first keep an eye on the orders below.
The above is only market data observation and personal opinion, and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto asset prices can fluctuate significantly—please be mindful of risks.
#比特币受阻于81000美元50周均线
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