Adam_Greeks_live格致研究员

#期权

We are happy to announce that Greeks.live has reached an agreement with the main investors of the first round (Pre-Series A)!

Our team is committed to providing our users with the best cryptocurrency options trading experience possible, and this funding will help us achieve that goal.

We are excited to continue exploring new opportunities and partnerships in the coming years and look forward to sharing our progress with you. Thank you for your continued support and we can’t wait to reveal the future of Greeks.live to you! 😀

Essential for Bitcoin investment, major events to watch this week (3/3-3/9)

The most noteworthy event this week is the cryptocurrency summit to be held in the United States on March 7, where Trump's every move significantly influences the cryptocurrency market.
This week is a macro week, with market-influencing news almost every day. This Friday, in addition to the crypto summit, there are two significant data points: unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls, which are very much worth paying attention to. Moreover, the U.S. is about to switch to daylight saving time, making it more convenient to monitor the market. On Tuesday, Trump's tariff policy on Canada and Mexico comes into effect, and there are important economic events on several other days, providing rare trading opportunities driven by events.

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Major events this week:

3/3 Monday

💼 U.S. February ISM Manufacturing PMI (23:00)

3/4 Tuesday

💼 Reserve Bank of Australia releases minutes of February monetary policy meeting (8:30)

💼 U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico

💼 U.S. President Trump is invited to deliver his first speech in Congress

3/5 Wednesday

💼 U.S. February ADP Employment Change (21:15)

3/6 Thursday

💼 Federal Reserve releases Economic Conditions Beige Book (3:00)

💼 European Central Bank announces interest rate decision (21:15)

💼 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (21:30)

💼 ECB President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference (21:45)

3/7 Friday

💼 U.S. February Unemployment Rate (21:30)

💼 U.S. February seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls (21:30)

💼 U.S. President Trump hosts the cryptocurrency summit at the White House

📌 Cryptocurrency market outlook:
The cryptocurrency market rebounded sharply over the weekend, as one tweet from Trump reversed the low market sentiment that had persisted for days, with Bitcoin returning to the $94,000 fluctuation zone. The sudden market changes caught participants off guard, shifting sentiment from extremely pessimistic to extremely optimistic.
In terms of options, the volatile market has pushed the implied volatility (IV) across all tenors up, with the current month's at-the-money IV rebounding to 55% and short-term IV soaring to 70%. The extreme market movements and multiple economic events this week are likely to keep IV at a relatively high level, but buying options is still very cost-effective.

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Regarding the cryptocurrency interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, and suitable interest rate orders can be actively executed, especially when there is market activity worth paying special attention to.

【February 28th Options Expiration Data】
59,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.7, maximum pain point at $96,000, notional value of $4.66 billion.
529,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.52, maximum pain point at $3,000, notional value of $1.12 billion.
This week the market is on the brink of collapse, influenced by the sharp decline in U.S. stocks and several security incidents, the market has significantly fallen under the leadership of mainstream coins, implied volatility (IV) soared, especially the short-term volatility of BTC once climbed to 90%, while the short-term volatility of ETH directly broke through 100%.
Market panic is spreading, as mentioned earlier this month, institutions generally believe that February will be a time with no market activity, and indeed the market seems to really lack hotspots and funds. Large options traders have been continuously selling medium to short-term call options for nearly a month, and smart money has won again.

Greeks.Live Chinese Community Daily Briefing
=====
Release Date: 2025-02-26

Overall Market Sentiment
=====
The market generally shows a bearish sentiment, believing that the rebound is weak, and BTC may further decline to below 80,000, with some opinions suggesting it will follow last year's volatile trend. Multiple traders have pointed out that it has currently broken below the M top, and there are risks in the mid-term direction. At the same time, the record net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs has intensified bearish sentiment.

Hot Topics
=====
• Options traders are discussing the current market volatility performance, which has been abnormal. Despite the sharp drop, the volatility of medium to long-term options has not effectively increased. This may indicate that the market expects this to be a one-time drop rather than a trend reversal.
• Traders have observed that the gamma distribution of ETH is very strong around 2500, with negative gamma dispersion, expecting low volatility in the near term.
• There is a heated discussion about DVOL (Volatility Index), with professionals pointing out that insufficient liquidity is the main issue. There are suggestions to introduce perpetual DVOL to increase liquidity, but it also faces technical challenges in index design and risk management.

Greeks.Live English Community Daily Briefing
=====
Release Date: 2025-02-26

Overall Market Sentiment
=====
Group members generally hold a bearish attitude, as Bitcoin plummeted from over $100,000 to a low of $80,000. Traders describe this as a "crisis spreading." Key observation price levels include $86,000 as a critical support level. If this level is broken, many believe a "vacuum zone" will appear below until the range of $72,000-$77,000, with some members even expecting a further drop to $65,000.

Market Rebound Analysis
=====
• The market experienced a single-day drop of $6,000, accompanied by a large number of forced liquidations, resulting in significant losses for most traders in the group, with some reporting losses of 5-6 figures.
• Several traders believe this round of selling is controlled and may be coming from a "stealth" large seller, who needs to complete the sell-off before any meaningful rebound occurs.
• Despite the bleak market, some members cautiously look for a potential range that may form between $85,000-$90,000, with $89,000-$91,000 seen as levels that could provide some breathing space if reclaimed.
• A minority view sees this as a buying opportunity, closely monitoring large buy orders at the levels of $77,000 and $72,000, regarded as potential bottoming areas.

Essential for Bitcoin investment, major events this week to watch (2/24-3/2)

This week's macro events are still relatively few, the G20 central bank finance ministers meeting is worth paying attention to, but overall the impact is limited. In the crypto sector, the follow-up handling of Bybit's theft will still be the main theme this week, and the attention on ETH has significantly increased. There are more opportunities for trading ETH or BTC-ETH pairs this week, all worth watching. The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) has come into full effect, and compliant exchanges like Kraken are gradually delisting USDT and other stablecoins in Europe.

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Major events this week:
2/24 Monday
💼
CME plans to launch cash-settled options for Bitcoin Friday futures

2/26 Wednesday
💼
G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting
💼
Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks (0:45)
💼
2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on inflation (2:00)

2/27 Thursday
💼
2027 FOMC voting member, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook and housing market (1:00)
💼
European Central Bank releases January monetary policy meeting minutes (20:30)
💼
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (21:30)

2/28 Friday
💼
2026 FOMC voting member, Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks on economic outlook (4:15)
💼
U.S. January core PCE price index year-on-year (21:30)

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Crypto market outlook: The crypto market continues to be sluggish, with Bitcoin fluctuating below $100,000. Bybit's $1.4 billion ETH theft needs to be bought back from the market, and the probability of a mild rise in ETH is considerable. You can sell some puts or directly buy calls to capture some market dividends. In terms of options, implied volatility (IV) continues to decline across all durations, with the at-the-money IV for the current month dropping to 40%. ETH's IV has not increased, making it relatively cost-effective to go long with options.

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In the crypto interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, and suitable interest rate orders can be actively traded, especially worth noting when there is market movement.

Essential for Bitcoin investment, key events this week preview (2/17-2/23)

This week's macroeconomic focus is on news from the US and Europe regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Russia-Ukraine war has been a significant reason for the increase in commodity prices, and any changes in the situation could alter the current overall inflation logic.
In the crypto space, this week marks the opening of Consensus in Hong Kong, with many related conferences, and FTX will begin repayments to creditors, both of which are noteworthy.
The European Union's crypto asset market regulation (MiCA) will come into full effect, with compliant exchanges like Kraken gradually delisting stablecoins such as USDT in Europe.

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Key events this week:

2/17 Monday

💼
US Presidents' Day - US stock market closed

2/18 Tuesday

💼
Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision (11:30)

💼
UK unemployment rate for January, speech by Bank of England Governor Bailey on maintaining and enhancing open financial markets (15:00)

💼
Consensus opening in Hong Kong

💼
FTX will begin repayments to creditors

2/19 Wednesday

💼
Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces interest rate decision and monetary policy statement (9:00)

2/20 Thursday

💼
Federal Reserve releases January monetary policy meeting minutes (3:00)

💼
US initial jobless claims for the week (21:30)

💼
2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks (22:30)

2/21 Friday

💼
2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks at the New York Economic Club (1:00)

💼
Final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February (23:00)

📌
Crypto market outlook:
The crypto market continues to be sluggish, with Bitcoin fluctuating below $100,000. The drama surrounding the issuance by Milei has intensified the downturn in altcoins, and the wealth creation effect in the market is relatively weak, leading to a very pessimistic market sentiment.
In terms of options, the implied volatility (IV) across all maturities continues to decline, with the at-the-money IV for the current month having dropped to 45%, primarily driven by large traders adjusting their positions.

📌
In the crypto interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, and appropriate interest rate orders can be actively executed, especially when there is market movement worth special attention.

【February 14 Options Expiration Data】
21,000 $BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.67, maximum pain point at $98,000, notional value of $2.08 billion.
176,000 $ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.64, maximum pain point at $2,725, notional value of $470 million.
This week's market continues to show weak consolidation; despite several positive news from the U.S. government, the market is not responding, and implied volatility (IV) has dropped to its lowest level in nearly a year.
Since BTC effectively broke below the $100,000 mark, large options traders have been continuously selling short- to medium-term call options, with significant increases in large call option trading volume, while large put option transactions have decreased, indicating that while the market is not optimistic about upward movement, the panic regarding downward movement has also diminished.
Institutions generally believe that February will be a dead period without any market activity; indeed, the market seems to lack hotspots and capital.

Yesterday's CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, temporarily pushing BTC down to $94,000. However, with Powell's favorable comments on crypto and other stimulating factors, mainstream coins are expected to appreciate to this week's high.
Currently, the implied volatility (IV) for major expiration options is at a relatively low level compared to the past year, with Dvol being below the current level only 14% of the time over the past year. Short-term IV is particularly low, with the IV for this month's expiration at only 46%, indicating a low expectation of volatility in the options market for the near future.
The main reason for this phenomenon is the continued weakening of bullish forces recently, with large whales consistently selling calls. Since the end of last month's settlement, the Skew for various expirations has been on a continuous downward trend and is currently oscillating near the zero axis.
Now is the time for the market to digest the Trump Trade, and following the large whales selling options seems to be a better choice.

Essential for Bitcoin Investment, Key Events This Week (2/10-2/16)

There are many important macro events this week, with the Federal Reserve and U.S. economic data being quite prominent. The semi-annual monetary policy and CPI data are worth paying attention to.
The new EU regulations require cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with travel rule guidelines to strengthen anti-money laundering measures. Exchanges like Deribit need to improve KYC to operate normally.
The EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) has come into full effect, and compliant exchanges like Kraken are gradually delisting stablecoins like USDT in Europe.

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Key Events This Week:

2/11 Tuesday

💼
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony in the Senate (23:00)

2/12 Wednesday

💼
U.S. January CPI (21:30)

💼
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony in the House of Representatives (23:00)

2/13 Thursday

💼
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week (21:30)

2/14 Friday

💼
U.S. January Retail Sales MoM (21:30)

📌
Crypto Market Outlook:
The crypto market remains sluggish, with Bitcoin continuing to fluctuate below $100,000. Altcoins have generally experienced significant declines over the past month, and the wealth creation effect in the market has weakened again, with the enthusiasm gradually turning pessimistic.
In terms of options, the implied volatility (IV) for the entire term continues to decline, with the current month’s at-the-money IV dropping below 50% and the quarterly at-the-money IV below 55%, indicating that market speculation is not very intense. Recently, there has been a significant amount of trading in large call options, mainly driven by large investors adjusting their positions.

📌
Regarding the crypto interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, and suitable interest rate orders can be actively traded, especially during significant market movements when it is worth paying special attention.

【February 7 Options Expiration Data】
26,000 contracts of options expiring for $BTC , Put Call Ratio is 0.58, maximum pain point is $99,500, notional value is $2.54 billion.
203,000 contracts of options expiring for $ETH , Put Call Ratio is 0.46, maximum pain point is $2,950, notional value is $560 million.
This week, the market is relatively weak, with ETH's maximum pain point once again falling below $3,000, and during the trading session, the coin price briefly dropped to $2,100, setting a new low since 2024. BTC effectively broke below the $100,000 mark, and since the market broke through $95,000 in late November, it has been fluctuating widely around this price.
The market is still digesting the impact of the Trump Trade over the past three months. This week's expiration volume accounts for 10% of the total open interest, with a significant decrease in call option trading volume, while the proportion of large put transactions is increasing.
Tonight, there are U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data for January; the impact of macro events on U.S. stocks is worth noting, and the overall risk in major speculative markets is currently strongly correlated.

$BTC Today, there were a large number of put option block trades, with a nominal value of $600 million accounting for a quarter of the total trades.
Tonight alone, two put calendars were worth $110 million. The market is weakening, and confidence is also declining. The short-term Skew is close to 0, and the medium- and long-term Skew and IV have also fallen significantly.
The market outlook for February is not optimistic. There are still a large number of altcoins waiting to be unlocked in the first quarter, and the market is currently short of funds.

Since February, the market has clearly entered a correction, with BTC briefly falling to $91,000, and ETH experiencing an even larger decline, dropping to $2,100, marking a new low for 2024. Meanwhile, altcoins suffered even more severe losses, with many dropping 50% in a single day.
During the most intense drop, the short-term options IV for ETH broke above 110%, while the main expiry also rose above 70%, and it currently remains at a high level.
BTC's decline has been more moderate, with short-term options IV rising to 65%, but as it recovers the $100,000 mark, the main expiry IV has retreated to levels before the crash.
The market is now showing a clear divide, with BTC being strongly favored both within and outside the crypto circle, supported by strong capital. In contrast, funds represented by ETH and other altcoins are fleeing rapidly, with the prices of the vast majority of cryptocurrencies significantly shrinking, and the anticipated altcoin season has not yet arrived.
However, from the options data, we can see that both BTC and ETH's Skew have maintained positive values, and whales are accumulating bullish options during the correction, indicating that the market remains optimistic about the future overall. The brief correction has shaken market confidence, but the future of cryptocurrency is bright.

Essential for Bitcoin investment, key events this week preview (1/27-2/2)

The Lunar New Year is approaching, and the influence of Mandarin-speaking users on the market will temporarily decrease this week. There are many important macroeconomic data releases this week. Although Trump issued multiple economic policy directives in his first week in office, the probability of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates this week remains as high as 98%. Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will announce their interest rate decisions and related reports this Thursday, which is worth paying attention to. Japan's interest rate hike is confirmed, and the eurozone will likely continue to lower interest rates. Market expectations are relatively consistent. Market uncertainty has significantly decreased, and implied volatility for major tenors has notably dropped.
The EU's new regulations require cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with travel rule guidelines and strengthen anti-money laundering measures. Exchanges like Deribit need to improve KYC to operate normally.

🌟
Key events this week:

1/29 Wednesday

💼
Bank of Canada interest rate decision and monetary policy report (22:45)

1/30 Thursday

💼
Federal Reserve interest rate decision (05:30)

💼
Eurozone European Central Bank deposit facility rate (21:15)

💼
Weekly initial jobless claims in the United States (21:30)

1/31 Friday

💼
U.S. Core PCE Price Index for December (21:30)

📌
Cryptocurrency market outlook:
Bitcoin continues to fluctuate above $100,000. The market, ignited by the Trump meme last week, has entered a cooling period, and market attention has become relatively dispersed as enthusiasm gradually fades.
In terms of options, short-term implied volatility has significantly decreased, with the at-the-money implied volatility dropping below 55% for the week and overall implied volatility below 60%, indicating that the market has not realized uncertainty. Recently, there has been a considerable amount of volume in bullish options trading, and after the confirmation, institutions have started to significantly increase their short positions.

📌
In the cryptocurrency interest rate market, Bitfinex's rates market has recently been relatively stable, and suitable interest rate orders can be actively executed, especially during market movements, which is worth paying special attention to.

【January 24th Options Expiration Data】

31,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio of 0.48, maximum pain point at $100,000, notional value of $3.19 billion.
174,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio of 0.47, maximum pain point at $3,300, notional value of $580 million.
Bitcoin remains above $100,000, and this year the probability of Bitcoin becoming a reserve asset for the US government and major corporations is quite high, as Trump's presidency has cleared policy obstacles. The market's enthusiasm for Bitcoin may continue throughout the year.
Trump has officially taken office as the new President of the United States, and whether he will issue policies directly favorable to cryptocurrency this month is worth watching. Today, the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike, and next week's Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain the current interest rate. Expectations for macro events are relatively stable, and this week we will focus on changes in the new government's policies and the influx of ETFs, and consider purchasing some short-term options for short-term trading.

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Since the market had reached a consensus on this beforehand, there was no significant reaction from major markets.
BTC's implied volatility across all maturities is around 60%, with the short-term volatility risk premium dropping from +20% just before Trump's inauguration to the current -10%. The actual volatility level in the market has slightly increased this week, but the extent is far lower than market expectations. This has led to a significant decrease in short-term implied volatility and a sharp drop in the volatility risk premium.
Overall, the market has lowered its expectations for the remaining events of this month, but some whales are still accumulating short-term bullish positions, and market sentiment is not particularly optimistic.

【January 17th Options Expiration Data】
22,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio at 0.95, maximum pain point at $96,000, notional value of $2.19 billion.
182,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio at 0.36, maximum pain point at $3,250, notional value of $610 million.
Bitcoin has rebounded again, breaking through $100,000, dispelling the weekend's sluggish market sentiment, but most altcoins are still showing weak performance, with market attention primarily focused on Bitcoin.
Short-term options IV has risen, as mentioned a few days ago, the bullish momentum towards the short-term target of $105,000 has significantly increased. Trump will officially take office as the new President of the United States next week, and it is worth noting whether any policies directly beneficial to cryptocurrency will be announced this month.
In recent days, U.S. stocks have shown some recovery, and the interest rate meeting at the end of the month will likely maintain the current interest rate. This week, focus on changes in the new government's policies and the inflow of ETFs, and consider purchasing some short-term options for short-term trading.

Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $100,000 for nearly two months, briefly hitting $110,000 in mid-December, before falling below $90,000 earlier this week.
Major term futures premiums remain above an annualized rate of 12%, and the market's long leverage levels have consistently been high, with bullish sentiment still prevailing in the market.
In terms of options, the implied volatility spread for January and March has decreased, with greater uncertainty expected as Trump approaches inauguration. From the Skew perspective, the market's panic during this decline is lower than the pullback in mid-December, indicating an overall bullish sentiment.
Block trades are also primarily focused on a bullish outlook for the end of the month, with many trades breaking through $100,000.
Overall, the derivatives market remains relatively optimistic about the period following Trump's inauguration.

[January 10 Options Expiration Data]
19,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.65, maximum pain point at $97,000, notional value $1.81 billion.
141,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.48, maximum pain point at $3,450, notional value $460 million.
Affected by weak U.S. stocks and adverse macro factors, the market experienced a significant correction this week, with Bitcoin briefly dropping below $91,000, reaching a new low in nearly a month, while altcoins fell even more sharply. Short-term options IV has risen somewhat, and market panic has noticeably increased.
There is one week left until Trump officially takes office as the new U.S. president, but the direct benefits are limited; more of it is long-term positive. The continuous pullback in U.S. stocks in recent days has also brought considerable uncertainty to the market, and this month's interest rate meeting is highly likely to maintain the current interest rate without a cut.
This week, we will focus on Bitcoin's price trends and the inflow situation of ETFs. If the situation worsens, it may be prudent to purchase some short-term put options for hedging; if the situation improves, monthly bullish options may offer better value.

Affected by the sharp decline of American stocks such as Nvidia and Tesla, cryptocurrencies have also undergone significant adjustments, with Bitcoin falling below $100,000 again, and altcoins experiencing even sharper declines, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment.
In terms of options data, short-term implied volatility has slightly rebounded but remains at a low level, with the market's pricing for future volatility unchanged. The options skew and futures premium have also not shown significant changes. The mainstream view on this pullback is that it is influenced by the strength of the US dollar and the decline of American stocks, and the trend of Bitcoin has not changed; the bull market is still ongoing.
If one chooses to buy the dip now, the short-term call option at $100,000 is very cost-effective, especially the weekly call options for Bitcoin.