Abdul Sami Munir

Weak US jobs data cut the odds of another Fed hike but the 10 year yield is still near 5.28%. Oil is elevated and European sovereign stress is rising. I think we saw a short term relief and majorly environment is stressed. Risk assets rallied following the NFP news only.

#FedOctoberHoldOdds82.3%

U.S. payrolls delivered a clear downside surprise.

September nonfarm payrolls: +29K
Consensus: +90K
Unemployment: 4.2% vs. 4.1% expected
Average hourly earnings: +0.1% m/m

The data weakens the case for further near term Fed tightening.

#NFPWatch

Watch after NFP:

2Y/10Y yields
DXY
SPX/NDX
Gold
BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP
Oil

The report explicitly keeps the post release reaction as pending rather than predicting the outcome.

Disclaimer: Educational information only. Not financial advice.

BTC Holds Firm While Nasdaq Slips | A Notable Divergence

Here's today's market snapshot and there is an interesting crypto/macro split worth highlighting.

Crypto:

· BTC: ~$83,713 | +0.36% (1h)
· ETH: ~$2,690 | +0.48%
· SOL: ~$117.79 | +0.15%
· XRP: ~$1.49 | +0.28%

Equities:

· S&P 500: -0.59% (1h)
· Nasdaq 100: -0.53% (1h)

The broader macro picture remains tough:

· 10Y Treasury: ~5.3%+
· 30Y Treasury: ~5.6%+
· DXY: ~101.78
· WTI: ~$92.68 | +3.90% (1D)
· Gold: ~$4,189

The market is wedged between softer inflation data and persistent pressure from long end rates and energy prices. The key transmission chain looks like this:

Oil ↑ → inflation pressure ↑ → rate uncertainty ↑ → yields ↑ → tighter financial conditions

What stands out right now is that BTC is holding up while tech equities come under pressure. That's worth paying attention to but it's not yet proof of a structural decoupling between crypto and macro.

Today's crypto question:
Can BTC keep its strength if Nasdaq and long duration assets stay under pressure?

That's a relationship worth watching closely.

Key catalysts today:
U.S. jobless claims, manufacturing data, ISM, EIA gas storage and Fed speakers. Then U.S. NFP lands on October 2, tomorrow.

#BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin #Macro #Binance

Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and it isn't a financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile and trading involves significant risk.

What are your thoughts?

#Markets start the week with the same problem: #oil is rising, yields are near a stress zone and risk assets have less room for error. The key question is whether oil cools before #highyields begin pressuring #stocks and #crypto more visibly. What do you expect in coming week?$