無名先生
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無名先生
Cryptocurrency、金融分析師、信息搬運工 、合作DM 、主攻領域、#Airdrops
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June 12: SPCX listed at $135.
July 24: Fell below $135.
July 26: Reached a new low of $113.
August 4: First large-scale unlock (~20% of circulating supply).
Everyone is shorting.
But $113 is already 16% lower than the IPO price and 50% lower than the peak.
When everyone is on the same side, the real winners are often the ones on the other side.
July 24: Fell below $135.
July 26: Reached a new low of $113.
August 4: First large-scale unlock (~20% of circulating supply).
Everyone is shorting.
But $113 is already 16% lower than the IPO price and 50% lower than the peak.
When everyone is on the same side, the real winners are often the ones on the other side.
🚨 Trump is considering launching a large-scale attack on Iran.
“I’m close to making a decision.”
After 13 straight nights of strikes—
last night it suddenly stopped.
Not a de-escalation. Preparation.
A retaliation cycle:
Iran kills 1 American → Trump orders Iran to “pay back double”
Markets closed → Monday’s open will price everything in at once.
Oil prices, inflation, interest rates, stocks, crypto—everything will move.
“I’m close to making a decision.”
After 13 straight nights of strikes—
last night it suddenly stopped.
Not a de-escalation. Preparation.
A retaliation cycle:
Iran kills 1 American → Trump orders Iran to “pay back double”
Markets closed → Monday’s open will price everything in at once.
Oil prices, inflation, interest rates, stocks, crypto—everything will move.
Michael Burry’s AI short logic:
Core argument:
AI demand is driven by “revolving financing,” not by real end-market demand
Nvidia invests customers → customers buy Nvidia chips → Nvidia revenue growth—closed loop
GPU depreciation useful life is exaggerated, real profits are overstated
Short positions:
MU @ $933.86
NVDA @ $210.28
CAT @ $893.49
SOXX @ $535.83
Reference: He believes today’s AI chip stocks are like Cisco in 1999—not Enron-style fraud, but oversupply after overbuilding
Core argument:
AI demand is driven by “revolving financing,” not by real end-market demand
Nvidia invests customers → customers buy Nvidia chips → Nvidia revenue growth—closed loop
GPU depreciation useful life is exaggerated, real profits are overstated
Short positions:
MU @ $933.86
NVDA @ $210.28
CAT @ $893.49
SOXX @ $535.83
Reference: He believes today’s AI chip stocks are like Cisco in 1999—not Enron-style fraud, but oversupply after overbuilding
2026 Mainstream Coins YTD Performance:
• BTC: -29.72% (most resilient)
• ETH: -40.48% (following the downturn; still has upside elasticity)
• SOL: -44.49% (high beta, a double-edged sword)
• BNB: -36.52% (weighed down by regulatory pressure)
• XRP: -47.43% (hit the hardest as liquidity recedes)
The current market is in the late stage of tightening expectations and liquidity contraction.
Risk premium is being cleared, and the key variable is: the August nonfarm payroll data.
• BTC: -29.72% (most resilient)
• ETH: -40.48% (following the downturn; still has upside elasticity)
• SOL: -44.49% (high beta, a double-edged sword)
• BNB: -36.52% (weighed down by regulatory pressure)
• XRP: -47.43% (hit the hardest as liquidity recedes)
The current market is in the late stage of tightening expectations and liquidity contraction.
Risk premium is being cleared, and the key variable is: the August nonfarm payroll data.
🚨 The final drop is approaching.
Historical pattern:
$83K → $58K → $68K → $38K → $70K → $109K
Time window:
Bottom: $38K–45K (October)
Breakthrough: $70K (December)
Target: $109K (January 2027)
You’re currently in a long trap phase, and the direction is still downward.
Historical pattern:
$83K → $58K → $68K → $38K → $70K → $109K
Time window:
Bottom: $38K–45K (October)
Breakthrough: $70K (December)
Target: $109K (January 2027)
You’re currently in a long trap phase, and the direction is still downward.
🚨 BTC crash reasons:
Five major platforms hit the market at the same time:
Bybit, Coinbase, Kraken, Wintermute, Binance.
Tens of billions every hour.
But Wintermute’s transfer could be normal market-maker activity and not necessarily a bearish signal.
Five major platforms hit the market at the same time:
Bybit, Coinbase, Kraken, Wintermute, Binance.
Tens of billions every hour.
But Wintermute’s transfer could be normal market-maker activity and not necessarily a bearish signal.
🚨 Chart Warning:
The pattern that has appeared in every cycle since 2012 is now repeating.
BTC path:
$83K→$58K→$68K→$38K→$60K→$109K
Bottom: $38K–$45K (September)
Breakout: $60K (November)
Target: $109K (January 2027)
I’ll share it when I buy.
The pattern that has appeared in every cycle since 2012 is now repeating.
BTC path:
$83K→$58K→$68K→$38K→$60K→$109K
Bottom: $38K–$45K (September)
Breakout: $60K (November)
Target: $109K (January 2027)
I’ll share it when I buy.
July 2025: Trump signs an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
May 2026: The House passes the “Crypto Clarity Act.”
July 2026: A Senate vote is imminent. The Republicans have 50/53 support, but 60 votes are needed.
Sticking point: the ethics provisions—Trump doesn’t want to be constrained, while the Democrats require the state attorneys general to have enforcement authority.
If a compromise cannot be reached by August 7, the bill may be delayed to 2027.
May 2026: The House passes the “Crypto Clarity Act.”
July 2026: A Senate vote is imminent. The Republicans have 50/53 support, but 60 votes are needed.
Sticking point: the ethics provisions—Trump doesn’t want to be constrained, while the Democrats require the state attorneys general to have enforcement authority.
If a compromise cannot be reached by August 7, the bill may be delayed to 2027.
$ETH My local take on Bitcoin:
Sweep the liquidity at 1804
Go long in the range: 1720/1800
Conservative target: 2000
If BTC hits 70K/72K, BTC hits 70K/72K, then ETH targets 2100/2200. If anything changes, I’ll let you know!
DYOR—just a reminder: I warned about the 82K bull-trap and the summer dip.
My next assessment will be the biggest one in this cycle. Turn on notifications. Most people will only start paying attention after me.
Sweep the liquidity at 1804
Go long in the range: 1720/1800
Conservative target: 2000
If BTC hits 70K/72K, BTC hits 70K/72K, then ETH targets 2100/2200. If anything changes, I’ll let you know!
DYOR—just a reminder: I warned about the 82K bull-trap and the summer dip.
My next assessment will be the biggest one in this cycle. Turn on notifications. Most people will only start paying attention after me.
🚨 The gold market may never return to how it used to be.
Paper gold: 1 ounce in physical form → 100 ounces on paper
China: it took many years to accumulate physical assets—tens of thousands of tons
If trust in paper gold starts to break:
→ Everyone wants physical
→ Leverage will get into trouble
→ The price discovery mechanism will change
This isn’t about gold—it's about who controls the market once trust disappears.
Smart money is watching what China does next.
Paper gold: 1 ounce in physical form → 100 ounces on paper
China: it took many years to accumulate physical assets—tens of thousands of tons
If trust in paper gold starts to break:
→ Everyone wants physical
→ Leverage will get into trouble
→ The price discovery mechanism will change
This isn’t about gold—it's about who controls the market once trust disappears.
Smart money is watching what China does next.
2014: Mt. Gox collapses, BTC at $200, bottoming out after 3 weeks.
2018: BitGrail collapses, BTC at $3,200, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2022: FTX collapses, BTC at $16,000, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2026: BitMEX collapses, BTC at $63,000, bottoming out after 2–3 weeks?
Each time, the market says, “This time is different.”
Each time, the market is wrong.
The difference is: in the first three times, the market cap for BTC was $2B, $20B, and $300B, respectively. Now it’s $1.3T.
The same pattern, just on a larger scale.
2018: BitGrail collapses, BTC at $3,200, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2022: FTX collapses, BTC at $16,000, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2026: BitMEX collapses, BTC at $63,000, bottoming out after 2–3 weeks?
Each time, the market says, “This time is different.”
Each time, the market is wrong.
The difference is: in the first three times, the market cap for BTC was $2B, $20B, and $300B, respectively. Now it’s $1.3T.
The same pattern, just on a larger scale.
$SPCX fell from $225 to $115, and many people say, “It’s cheap enough—time to bottom fish.”
But take another look at Tesla’s post-IPO trajectory in 2010: $30 → $40 → $20 → $15, and only then did it really start to rise.
If SpaceX’s storyline is the same as Tesla’s, $85 isn’t out of reach.
This isn’t saying you should wait until $85 to buy; rather, before $85, every rebound could be only temporary.
But take another look at Tesla’s post-IPO trajectory in 2010: $30 → $40 → $20 → $15, and only then did it really start to rise.
If SpaceX’s storyline is the same as Tesla’s, $85 isn’t out of reach.
This isn’t saying you should wait until $85 to buy; rather, before $85, every rebound could be only temporary.
Breaking:
Michael Burry publicly shorted Tesla—entered at $416.22.
Now it's $313.03, down 25%.
He also shorted Nvidia, Applied Materials, Caterpillar, and the Semiconductor ETF.
The market is validating his thesis.
Michael Burry publicly shorted Tesla—entered at $416.22.
Now it's $313.03, down 25%.
He also shorted Nvidia, Applied Materials, Caterpillar, and the Semiconductor ETF.
The market is validating his thesis.
There’s a reason why Bitcoin is hovering in the $67K–$62K range.
History is repeating itself, and everything is unfolding according to my prediction.
The $67K resistance level was rejected as expected.
Now BTC is taking the same path:
$64K → $62K → $58K → $52K → $48K
Next stop:
→ Within a few days at $62K
→ The October cycle bottom
History is repeating itself, and everything is unfolding according to my prediction.
The $67K resistance level was rejected as expected.
Now BTC is taking the same path:
$64K → $62K → $58K → $52K → $48K
Next stop:
→ Within a few days at $62K
→ The October cycle bottom
🚨 BTC breaks below the lower edge of the 14-year uptrend channel.
Every major top and every major bottom happens along this line.
This time, it broke.
Target: $65K → $57K → $49K.
In 2022, people called for a $17K bottom; in 2025, people called for a $126K top.
The next call will be sent in advance.
Stay tuned.
Every major top and every major bottom happens along this line.
This time, it broke.
Target: $65K → $57K → $49K.
In 2022, people called for a $17K bottom; in 2025, people called for a $126K top.
The next call will be sent in advance.
Stay tuned.
🚨 Breaking:
The Federal Reserve has almost confirmed that it will raise rates twice in 2026.
The probability of a 50-basis-point rate hike has surged to 33% for the first time.
This is very bad for the market……
The Federal Reserve has almost confirmed that it will raise rates twice in 2026.
The probability of a 50-basis-point rate hike has surged to 33% for the first time.
This is very bad for the market……
February 2026: Microsoft’s share price plunged after its earnings report, as the market worried about Azure’s growth and $19.0 billion in capital expenditures
February–March 2026: Ackman bought MSFT at a 21x P/E ratio
2026 Q1: Sold off more than 90% of its Alphabet position and rotated into Microsoft
July 2026: Disclosed a new holding, with four major tech stocks plus Uber becoming the core positions
It’s not “betting on the AI space”—it’s “waiting for a price that’s cheap enough.”
February–March 2026: Ackman bought MSFT at a 21x P/E ratio
2026 Q1: Sold off more than 90% of its Alphabet position and rotated into Microsoft
July 2026: Disclosed a new holding, with four major tech stocks plus Uber becoming the core positions
It’s not “betting on the AI space”—it’s “waiting for a price that’s cheap enough.”
If BTC starts to fall:
1️⃣ Watch the $64K support level—if it breaks, selling pressure may accelerate
2️⃣ Targets: the $60K and $54K zones
3️⃣ If the price drops into the $54K zone, you may need to reassess the trend
It’s recommended to set stop-loss orders and monitor the gains and losses of key support levels.
1️⃣ Watch the $64K support level—if it breaks, selling pressure may accelerate
2️⃣ Targets: the $60K and $54K zones
3️⃣ If the price drops into the $54K zone, you may need to reassess the trend
It’s recommended to set stop-loss orders and monitor the gains and losses of key support levels.
Today’s stock scanner detected multiple unusual volume signals:
✅ NTPC Green Energy (+28x trading volume, strong earnings)
✅ HEG (+11x trading volume, earnings in line with expectations)
⚠️ OCI Automotive (+21x trading volume, but down 13%—possible selling pressure)
Things to watch:
1️⃣ High volume + positive earnings → could keep the uptrend
2️⃣ High volume + sharp decline → could keep falling or see a reversal
3️⃣ Pay attention to support and resistance levels
Which one are you watching?👇
✅ NTPC Green Energy (+28x trading volume, strong earnings)
✅ HEG (+11x trading volume, earnings in line with expectations)
⚠️ OCI Automotive (+21x trading volume, but down 13%—possible selling pressure)
Things to watch:
1️⃣ High volume + positive earnings → could keep the uptrend
2️⃣ High volume + sharp decline → could keep falling or see a reversal
3️⃣ Pay attention to support and resistance levels
Which one are you watching?👇
Signals of ETH Strength:
1️⃣ When ETH starts outperforming BTC, pay attention to altcoins
2️⃣ When ETH/BTC breaks through key resistance, consider increasing altcoin allocation
3️⃣ When the ETH price breaks above a key resistance level, watch for correlated reactions in altcoins
Be sure to set a stop-loss and monitor ETH’s relative strength signals.
1️⃣ When ETH starts outperforming BTC, pay attention to altcoins
2️⃣ When ETH/BTC breaks through key resistance, consider increasing altcoin allocation
3️⃣ When the ETH price breaks above a key resistance level, watch for correlated reactions in altcoins
Be sure to set a stop-loss and monitor ETH’s relative strength signals.
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