I checked out a few bloggers who are again drawing some patterns and graphs.
Allegedly, the dominance of Ethereum over Bitcoin is starting to grow. It's something like the breaking of a long-standing trend. I haven't seen anything like that. We're just standing still, within the margin of error. It's an uninteresting phase.
Recently, I read that there will be an active push to promote the CLARITY ACT to the White House for Trump's signature.
It's interesting how the market will turn out. Let there be zero.
Will someone say tasty prices? Maybe. But it’s not worth buying. At the moment, no market is behaving rationally at all. And no one is held accountable for it. This leads me to think that the scenarios considered earlier, based on historical patterns, are broken.
Such behavior in the markets, where no one bears any responsibility, may indicate either great goals concerning the market itself or, on the contrary, military objectives. When the elites have no regard for stock and crypto prices. Their objectives are military in nature and the vector may have shifted towards a military campaign to secure a place in the sun.
A kind of great reboot of the entire system through global shock. I cannot describe this madhouse in any other way. There’s no need to buy anything back. For this may not be the stage where blood is simply spilled in the streets. It is most likely just a rearrangement onto new tracks. And which projects will survive on these new tracks is unknown. We need to be realists. There is no point in fixing such huge losses when buying or selling.
Flow was hacked for 3.4 million and sold on the market. At one point, the price fell by 50%.
1inch was sold for 5 million. Or rather, it wasn't sold, but simply exchanged on several platforms.
Karl, that's a couple of million dollars, not billions. And the price has rolled back so much.
Now the question is: If such a small capital hits the asset so hard, what will happen if and when hundreds of billions are poured into the market?
Of course, risks should be taken into account. But just to think and break it down, a lot of money is not needed to shake up the market. The crypto market is completely squeezed from a liquidity standpoint. Therefore, it is logical to think that it would not be difficult to shake it back with small capitals, theoretically of course.
Moreover, if the U.S. plan is the expansion of the dollar through stablecoins. Then theoretically, if hundreds of billions, or even a couple of trillions, are poured into the market. One can only imagine what kind of growth there will be.
Naturally, I am writing this based on observations and theories.
«AI will leave you without a job. Cryptocurrency will make it so that you won't need a job. Buy and hold now, retire in a few years – if you haven't already retired thanks to crypto. (This is not financial advice)».
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We are not retiring, we are going straight to the afterlife.
I will start my narrative by saying that the emergence of the crypto market began after the massive real estate market crisis in 2008. That's by the way. Immediately in 2009, Bitcoin appeared as an alternative to the traditional financial system.
Now, during periods of such apathy in the crypto market. While on the stock market there is a celebration: Gold, silver, copper. Shares of top companies and others are growing like yeast. I can't help but wonder: What will happen when this entire party on the stock market comes to an end?
Right now, it's hard to say encouraging words. To tell that everything will be great and the alt season is just around the corner. I do not deny my words and articles, I am not leaving the market - you know my position.
But against this backdrop, it is very difficult for me to observe this catastrophic situation and losses. I am a living person, just like you, and I lead this community out of personal enthusiasm. In a way, it's a channel for personal notes of the path I've traveled. As they say, everything in real time. My disappointment and joy, I convey here. And as I wrote above, if things are terrible, I talk about it.
All my mistakes, of which there are a huge number on the path of being in the market, I likewise convey here.
You are not alone in this situation. Right now in the market are all those who formed a portfolio since 2023. Absolutely everyone is in deep drawdown. Some have exited with losses, some are buying more. And some are doing absolutely nothing.
Opinion and attitude towards investing, right now.
Just a little more and the market will recover, and a bunch of experts will flood the info field. Classic.
You know my position. I believe in growth, but I can't say for sure what timings to focus on. In the fall, when the market was recovering, I expected the turning point to come. But we were shown the red behind of a baboon on October 10. Therefore, I am adjusting my position.
Many have heard that it is necessary to buy new projects. The argument is that new projects are even better adapted to new laws and have greater value for manipulators. This is all true, but there is a nuance.
So, a new project is coming to the market. Without history, without a name. Trust in it is minimal, a name is earned over time. The project must be well-known, it should be talked about, and it should generate interest. A history of failures and successes, a path, a roadmap, and everything else. It can only be earned over time.
The first buyers of the new cycle feel like idiots.
There is no euphoria. No support. No approval. There is a feeling that you are again going "the wrong way". This is a normal sign that the market is not yet for everyone.
It begins when the crowd has not yet psychologically returned. Growth seems strange, unconvincing, "fake" That is why it is ignored. The manipulator does not need witnesses at the start.
Many may have heard that the company Strategy wants to be excluded from the MSCI index on January 15. This will lead to forced sales of both stocks and bitcoin. A kind of panic. Of course, this cannot be excluded, but again it is necessary to use one's head and think logically. By the way, there were also statements that bitcoin poses a threat to the old financial system, funny.
The final stage is the absence of the desire to be right.
Previously, there was a desire to prove that the idea would work. Then — at least to recoup the investments. And in the end, one wants only this: not to return to the topic. When a person no longer cares whether they were right or not — the market has lost them.
As promised in the chat, I will again outline my view regarding the market. And why public statements have been resonating so actively lately about partial growth or no growth of altcoins at all.
So, let's go in order. There are often theses about the fragmented growth of the market. That is, not the whole market but only partially, a couple of projects and that's it. The argument for this is that there are too many coins in the market and capital is concentrated in a narrow circle of projects. Of course, that's true, but the fact is that top projects have a lot of people in them and they won't leave until they make a profit. However, projects that are not flashy have a chance to make more x's than top projects. It was so in the last two cycles, and it can't be said for sure that it will be the same this time. But I have conveyed my thought.
When everyone agrees that the "market is dead" — it ceases to be dangerous.
A market is dangerous when there is disagreement. A market is dangerous when there are expectations. However, when a consensus appears that "there's nothing to be done here" — the risk for big players is minimal. There is no one to object.
Fear invigorates. Greed drives. Apathy disconnects. When a participant is not angry, does not hope, and does not wait — he is no longer a participant. The manipulator needs not a frightened market, but an empty one.
I will write a few more words, I personally cannot stand such nonsense from public details, and I spill it into the text.
I will never believe that in such statements, and indeed in various kinds of statements, there is no hidden agenda. There is always one. Especially in such an apathetic market, when every public horse feeds into an already extremely negative background.
But the nuance is that as soon as the market turns around, it will soar to new historical highs. The same selective bastards will come out and will tell how the market will soar to new ATH. And we are waiting for a new 'Golden Age'
Now they are starting to draw patterns of Bitcoin behavior on Twitter again. Based on 4-year cycles. Supposedly, based on the outcome of 4 years, Bitcoin can correct its price to 35k.
From a logical perspective, this is true. But we have exited the 4-year scenario. This cycle is different in that it does not follow this pattern. Everything is upside down. I clearly remember the summer of 24, the boom in the meme segment of the market. Which marked the end of the cycle in 21. But in 24 it was the middle of the cycle, not the end.
The time markers are different, the capital behavior pattern is different, and the capital itself is different. The retail presence has increased, the game is larger. But one thing will never change: the desire for profit and making money.
This pattern of behavior of us bipedal reptilians will NEVER change. The cycle can start with the rise of altcoins, then Bitcoin, or with the rise of memes without the rise of Bitcoin. Or Bitcoin then altcoins and memes. This changes nothing, because the main task and goal of any market is PROFIT for large capital.
It's important for the manipulator that you don't notice that the pressure is gone. When the main drain is completed, the pressure disappears.
No aggression. No sudden movements. It's at this moment that most people think: "Well, that's it, the market is just nothing." The best time to accumulate always looks like a lack of events.