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From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is showing some signs of overheating, but onchain data suggests otherwise.

• Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $111,970 on May 22, but retraced to $110,700, with analysts noting mixed signals on market overheating.
• Funding rates and other metrics suggest a “healthy upward phase.”
Bitcoin’s [BTC $108,964] price recorded a new all-time high of $111,970  on May 22. However, BTC price retraced shortly after to trade at $110,700 at the time of writing.
Despite the correction, there are mixed signals about whether the price rally is overheated or whether this is a healthy pullback.

Bitcoin “still not overheated” — analyst

Bitcoin is not showing any signs of being overheated despite reaching new all-time highs this week, with several analysts pointing to fundamentals suggesting Bitcoin could rise further.
“Overheating indicators such as the funding rate and short-term capital inflow remain low compared to previous peaks, and profit-taking by short-term investors is limited,” said CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan in a May 22 Quicktake note. #BTCPrediction #TrumpTariffs

• On Friday we have seen Ethereum rally a bit, but we don’t seem to be able to really take off to the upside and therefore think you have got a situation where we will continue to try to work off some of the excess froth from the big move to the upside.
• The 200 Day EMA sits just below, so that could offer quite a bit of support, especially with the $2400 level sitting just below there.
• Ultimately, this is a market that I think will remain noisy, but I do think that we are trying to do everything we can to break out to the upside. The $2800 level is a bit of a ceiling, and an area where we have seen a lot of noise previously. If we can break above that, then Ethereum will really start to take off to the upside.
• At that point, we could go all the way back to the all-time highs over the next several months, but keep in mind that Ethereum needs a little bit of help from external pressures, mainly in the form of Bitcoin

•Buying Dip
Going forward, buying dips will. probably remain the key way to get involved in Ethereum, and it’s likely that short-term buyers are looking to get involved.

• Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance have declined as prices picked up, indicating reduced selling activity.
• Bitcoin's realized cap has grown by 3%, increasing by $30 billion in April, yet it remains below the highs reached in November and December.
• BTC long-term holder supply has seen a slight drop for the second time in May, indicating increased spending from this cohort.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $103,600, down 0.5% on Wednesday amid a decline in the general crypto market. Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance have dropped, signaling a shift toward holding despite increased spending among long-term holders (LTH).
Bitcoin whales resume holding amid decline in LTH supply
Bitcoin inflows from whale addresses on crypto exchange Binance have experienced a consistent decline in the past month.
Whale inflows on the exchange were $5 billion in April, coinciding with the start of Bitcoin's price recovery. However, it plunged to $3 billion in May, reflecting a notable decrease in large-holder activity. The decline in whale inflows suggests a shift toward holding among this group. 

However, retail inflows increased from $12 billion to $15 billion over the same period, still below levels seen during previous market peaks.
The downtick in whale selling pressure aligns with the growth of Bitcoin's realized cap, which maintained a 3% monthly increase, adding $30 billion in April, according to data from Glassnode.

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 Michael Ebiekutan
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Bitcoin whales resume holding despite increased long-term holders' spending
Cryptos | 05/15/2025 00:10:48 GMT
• Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance have declined as prices picked up, indicating reduced selling activity.
• Bitcoin's realized cap has grown by 3%, increasing by $30 billion in April, yet it remains below the highs reached in November and December.
• BTC long-term holder supply has seen a slight drop for the second time in May, indicating increased spending from this cohort.
#BTC

Bitcoin faces a volatile trip among shifting liquidity conditions, with bulls getting squeezed first, new BTC price analysis predicts.
Bitcoin threatens a trip to long-term range lows before “full bull” takes over BTC price action.
In his latest analysis on X, released on Oct. 10, analyst Cole Garner said that he sees “capitulation incoming” for Bitcoin BTC$60,965.95 markets.
BTC price “range lows” still on the table
Bitcoin still stands to gain from global liquidity trends, but what comes first might shock the average trader.
Investigating current onchain phenomena, Garner flagged liquidity declining in the short term, which could be reflected in BTC price performance.
“Liquidity onchain is tightening: I smell capitulation incoming,” he summarized.
“A common pre-requisite to full bull.”

BTC/USD 8-hour chart with Tether Ratio Channel
>Bitcoin kicks the can on “Uptober”
As Cointelegraph reported, some market participants still hope that BTC/USD will deliver a turnaround from its sideways moves before the end of October.
Related: Bitcoin traders don’t expect new highs until the 200-MA becomes support
One theory argues that even China’s stimulus rethink could spark a fresh wave of capital inflows toward crypto.
Zooming out, bullish BTC price predictions also remain in place. This week, longtime trader Peter Brandt said that he sees BTC/USD reaching $135,000 within the next year, provided that crucial support holds.
Bitcoin traded near $61,000 at the time of writing, down 4% month-to-date, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
#btcupdates2024 #BTC/USDT. #bitcoin #BTC

Bitcoin dips below $62K on concerns of a US government sale of 69,000 BTC, raising supply risks and market concerns.
US BTC-spot ETFs saw $235.2M inflows on October 7, but net outflows loom as market braces for supply shocks.Fed speakers and FOMC meeting minutes today could influence BTC price trends amid broader market uncertainty.

FBTC-1.93%IBIT-1.89%Ethereum+0.27%Bitcoin-0.11%
Bitcoin Dips Below $62,000 on Oversupply Risk
On Tuesday, October 8, BTC dipped by 0.12%, following a 0.89% loss from the previous session to close at $62,181. BTC mirrored the broader crypto market, which slipped by 0.06% to a total crypto market cap of $2.117 trillion.
US Government Receives Green Light to Sell 69,000 BTC
On Tuesday, reports circulated that the US government received approval to offload 69,000 BTC.
Experts Trade Bitcoin with IC Markets
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Derivatives may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, and seek independent advice if necessary. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) can be obtained either from this website or on request from our offices and should be considered before entering into a transaction with us. Raw Spread accounts offer spread
According to court documents, the judge ordered the forfeiture of the crypto holdings in August 2022. The Supreme Court’s ruling means the US government can sell the seized BTC.
According to Arkam Intelligence, the US government currently holds 203,239 BTC in its crypto stockpile, equivalent to $12.69 billion. Although there is concern about the supply-demand balance, ETF inflows have recently mitigated this risk.

Bitcoin price extended its increase above the $63,500 zone. BTC even cleared the $64,200 resistance zone. However, the bears were active below $64,500. It traded as high as $64,419 and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the $64,000 and $63,500 levels. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $61,723 swing low to the $64,41 high. Besides, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $63,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin price is now trading above $62,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.

The US released multiple employment-related reports throughout the week. The ADP report indicated that the private sector added 143K new jobs in September 2024. On the other hand, the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report showed an increase of 254K new jobs. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The US dollar surged in response, closing at higher weekly levels.
Meanwhile, Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) consolidated throughout the week. AUD/USD declined sharply due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The US will release the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and the September CPI data on Thursday. Additionally, the September PPI data will be released on Friday. These inflation figures are expected to drive market movements for gold, silver, and AUD/USD. Despite the strong US dollar, gold and silver show consolidation patterns that indicate a potentially bullish setup. This bullish setup will likely strengthen ahead of the upcoming inflation data releases.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Derivatives may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, and seek independent advice if necessary. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) can be obtained either from this website or on request from our offices and should be considered before entering into a transaction with us. Raw Spread accounts offer spread.

Gold consolidation throughout the week has formed a bullish pennant. The price remains above the 20 and 50 SMAs, indicating a bullish trend. A break above $2,686 will likely initiate upward momentum in the gold market. The daily support levels are at $2,606 and $2,525. Gold is consolidating within this pennant ahead of CPI week.
The bullish pennant is also observed on the 4-hour chart. This pennant has formed within the rising channel pattern. Last week’s NFP release triggered strong volatility, but the price remains above the channel’s midline. The support levels are $2,630 at the black trend line and $2,590 at the rising channel pattern. #XAUUSD