Yesterday, the Bitcoin market continued to rise, once again breaking through the 100,000 mark, successfully recovering the losses from the previous day's sharp decline, while also driving some strong altcoins to achieve new highs.
Current key focus on the market: Short-term resistance is in the range of 102000 - 102788; Short-term support is in the range of 96000 - 96788.
Short-term trend: Bitcoin is likely to continue its upward trajectory, possibly retreating after a second peak around 102000.
Given the current volume situation, the likelihood of breaking through 105000 in the short term is low.
1. The CPI data released today supports a rate cut next week. After the data release, the Federal Reserve enters a "quiet period" and expresses confidence in the anti-inflation process, making it likely to further ease monetary policy in the new year.
2. The Nasdaq index continues to rise, breaking the 20,000 point mark for the first time and setting a historic high, with a cumulative increase of over 33% this year. Tech stocks in the U.S. are broadly rising, with companies like Tesla and Google reaching record highs during trading.
3. According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Tether has minted 1 billion USDT on the Ethereum network, with a total minting of 4 billion USDT this month.
4. Arkham's monitoring shows that in the past 48 hours, BlackRock and Fidelity have purchased over 500 million USD worth of ETH.
XRP: The price previously broke through the trend line, causing support to turn into resistance. The current price has returned to the trend line, indicating that the current trend is still strong, and a reversal signal has not yet appeared.
The support level below is at 2.24, with significant space above, and the resistance level is approximately around 2.7.
Based on the trend line's movement, the support area on the left still provides upward potential.
The reasons behind the sharp decline often stem from investors' habitual thinking and emotional responses, especially during a bull market. After each market adjustment, investors tend to believe that this is just a temporary pullback, and that the market will quickly recover and continue to rise. Therefore, whenever there is a market pullback, many speculators re-enter the market, trying to catch the next wave of increase.
This repetitive trading behavior causes investors to behave like Pavlov's dogs, forming a conditioned reflex. Every time the market pulls back, they instinctively become bullish and even increase their positions. As time goes on, their positions become heavier, and their confidence continues to grow.
Even when the market shows a clear downward trend, with declines possibly reaching 30% or 50%, some investors who are accustomed to trading in waves still hold onto the fantasy of a bull market, firmly believing that after the pullback, the market will reach new highs again.
However, when the market truly transitions into a bear market, these investors often realize the problem only after being continuously trapped. By that time, it is already too late to adjust their strategies or exit.
Beware of the risk of MEME coins facing a zero value:
SOL/BTC is forming a massive triangular oscillation pattern, currently at risk of breaking downwards. Once confirmed, a drop below this level could be a fatal blow to MEME coins, potentially leading to a significant devaluation of many MEME coins.
Since its historical high, SOL has failed to maintain strength, instead showing weakness, with the SOL to BTC exchange rate continuously declining and funds flowing out.
In this scenario, ETH and SUI may benefit, leading to a transfer of market funds, resulting in a situation of mutual rise and fall.
Sol market has clearly explained to everyone in the live broadcast, analyzing the support level near 205 through line drawing. As expected, the market indeed retraced to this position yesterday, with a rebound exceeding 5%. The overall box pattern and its changes currently are not much different from the analysis in yesterday's live broadcast.
Current focus: 231 to 236 as short-term resistance; 203 to 207 as short-term support.
Short-term trend: It is very likely to retrace near 207 again before starting a rally rebound.
I just took a look at the news, why am I seeing reports again that Bitcoin (BTC) has been broken by quantum computing?
The last time this kind of statement appeared was after the big drop in the last bull market on March 12.
Is it really necessary for everyone to panic like this? Why is no one speaking up now? Isn't it common to see a sharp drop during a bull market?
Think back, before the last bull market, altcoins were almost in a similar situation.
History always repeats itself, everyone should trust their own feeling about the market.
Pnut and ACT have dropped, yet I haven't seen anyone shouting to buy the dip? Don't you buy some at times like this? Am I the only one who thinks this is an opportunity? Does everyone lack confidence? Is this really necessary?
Market fluctuations are normal; no market will continue to rise.
If you cannot bear the risk of a pullback, you should not go all in or blindly hold long positions.
You can choose to make short-term trades, keeping some funds available to cope with market volatility.
The market always magnifies your greed and emotions; once you reach a peak, a single pullback could cost you dearly.
In the cryptocurrency world, the most important thing is to find a trading style and strategy that suits you, maintaining a clear mind and a stable mindset.
BTC and BNB are both good choices, but ultimately, what determines success or failure is your mindset and strategy.
This round of decline can help assess the strength of your altcoin holdings:
Very Strong: Approximately 20% retracement, such as SUI, ADA Strong: Approximately 30% retracement, such as RAY Neutral: Approximately 50% retracement, such as ALGO Weak: Approximately 90% retracement, such as TRX, CORE, RSR
The extent of the retracement directly reflects the market's confidence in these tokens and their ability to withstand declines, which is worth noting for investors.
The market is always filled with various predictions, and everyone is looking for the most accurate predictor. However, in reality, the person who predicts best is not necessarily the one who makes the most money.
The ones who truly make the most are those who know what to buy and can hold on firmly, rather than those who chase trends and frequently trade.
The market from last night to this morning can be described as a typical double kill for both bulls and bears. In the evening, BTC surged and liquidated shorts, and in the early morning to the morning, there was a pullback, leading to a large number of long positions being liquidated.
This significant drop was more severe than expected.
The last major drop of Bitcoin and the spike mainly targeted BTC contracts, while this time the downturn was primarily focused on altcoins.
Last time, altcoins were hardly affected, so most investors concentrated their positions in altcoins, resulting in even more liquidations this time than the frightening 312 incident.
After this wave of selling, the market structure of altcoins instantly became lighter, and many long positions were forced out. At this point, the market may be close to a bottom-fishing opportunity.
The current market trend seems to be clearing out leveraged altcoins and entering the bottom-fishing phase. While we cannot assert that the market has peaked, the 'understanding king' has not yet officially taken office, the rate cut policy continues, and there may be a series of positive news in the future to support the market's continued rise.
104,000 points will be an important top area in this bull market. A bull market is usually accompanied by multiple pinning washouts, primarily to clear out leveraged funds and uncertain holders, laying the foundation for the next round of increases.
In this case, BTC is expected to have the potential to rise to a range of 150,000 to 300,000, while ETH is likely to break through 5,000 dollars, setting a new historical high.
BTC just touched the support level of 94k, and those in the group who followed and opened short positions yesterday also closed their positions at this level.
Surprisingly, BTC suddenly plummeted after the U.S. stock market closed and quickly rebounded for recovery.
Such market movements occur in every bull market, especially between 5-6 PM after U.S. stock trading ends, where large fluctuations often happen.
After a sharp drop, the market usually undergoes a recovery; the downtrend is not scary, rather it is the continuous downward trend that is the hardest to deal with.
Once a sharp drop occurs, the market can usually rebound quickly, hence this is also an effective trading strategy: buy during pullbacks and sell during rebounds, with the extent of the recovery needing to be judged based on the specific market conditions.
The short positions for ETH and PNUT have been closed, and the market now needs to see another rebound.
Hook is about to launch an application that integrates AI - Agent with the education sector. Currently, AI - Agent is one of the hottest areas in the market.
It is evident that Hook is very likely to become a pioneer in the application of AI intelligent agents in educational projects, which will undoubtedly bring about significant positive impacts and good opportunities.
At present, Hook's market trend is not very ideal, and it is only suitable to maintain a watchful attitude at this stage. It is worth mentioning that CZ has always placed great importance on the education sector, and against this backdrop, Edu should not be missed either.
Although the performances of Hook and Edu have not yet reached outstanding levels, both have achieved a growth rate of one hundred percent from their price bottoms.
In the subsequent phase, attention can be focused on Hook, as it has shown relatively stronger market trends and vitality compared to Edu. In the cryptocurrency market, changes in information often trigger price fluctuations, and price fluctuations can stimulate trading conditions. It should be made clear that there is no absolute superiority or inferiority in cryptocurrencies; the key lies in their market pricing and development trends.
For the current pullback phase, consider allocating mainstream coins such as ETH, BNB, SOL, DOGE, UNI, especially during price corrections that provide opportunities.
In the AI field, quality targets like WLD, FET, RENDER, GRT have not yet fully rebounded and are worth watching.
Chain game projects such as YGG, MAGIC, GALA may also perform well in the future, and with changes in market sentiment, these projects are expected to see an increase.
In addition, some speculative assets, especially those related to the concept of FTT bankruptcy, can be moderately allocated at low levels, potentially yielding around 20% returns in the short term.
Currently, the market is in the later stages of the cycle, and investors need to respond cautiously, using pullback opportunities for selective allocations.
BTC once again broke through the $100,000 mark, especially on weekdays, and the price continued to rise. Although the ETF has not yet been launched, the opening of CME has driven the market up.
The ETH ecosystem is booming, many once-forgotten ReStake projects have recovered, and the DeFi field is also recovering across the board, with frequent activities and positive market sentiment.
SOL is progressing steadily, and the current attention is gradually shifting to other areas, but its fundamentals are still developing steadily.
BNB's recent strategic direction is not very clear, and its current performance is more affected by the overall market trend, which still needs to be observed.
Sushi announced its product roadmap for 2025 and hinted that there will be multiple token airdrops, bringing market heat.
Recently, the SOL chain meme currency has been popular while the ETH chain has been coldly received. The main reasons are as follows:
ETH chain:
First, the price of ETH has been sluggish for a long time, with almost no increase.
Second, transaction fees (gas) are high, with a transaction often costing tens of dollars or more.
Third, there are many shortcomings in on-chain projects, such as being tied up at the bottom, being a tax farmer, and there are many unreliable delays.
SOL chain:
First, the price of SOL currency continues to rise, and Binance has listed many SOL chain tokens, which increases the popularity of the currency price and drives the inflow of funds, forming a virtuous cycle.
Second, the transaction experience is smooth and the gas fee is low. Although there are opaque operations and pvp problems, compared with the ETH chain, the playability is significantly higher, there are many hot spots, and it is easier to attract the influx of new funds.
This bull market seems to be dominated by Trump, Musk and meme coins.