ManuelRD

#StrategySharesFall9%OnFriday

MSTR shares fall 9% amid risk of exclusion from the MSCI index.

MSTR shares fell as low as $137.50 after MSCI proposed rules that could exclude companies with structures similar to those of investment funds, raising concerns among investors about the risk-return relationship. The final list of affected companies will be published on November 11.

Analysts warn that exclusion from MSCI indexes could trigger forced selling by passive funds, creating billions of dollars in selling pressure. This underscores the need for stronger risk management strategies, especially for Bitcoin-linked equity financing models.

MSCI plans to implement new criteria that use operating asset ratios and multiple financial metrics to exclude companies whose asset structures and business characteristics more closely resemble investment funds than traditional operating companies. Due to its extremely high proportion of assets in bitcoin, Strategy has been placed on the watchlist for possible exclusion. The final list of affected companies is expected to be announced on November 11.

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#Nasdaq100Falls5.5%InWorstWeekIn18Months

Trump praises the U.S. stock market as the “strongest in history.”

U.S. President Trump posted charts and text on social media claiming that during his administration, the S&P 500 surged from 5,881 points in December 2024 to 7,651 points in September 2026, an overall increase of approximately 30%.

Meanwhile, recent risks associated with AI investments have gradually weighed on U.S. stocks. On Friday, all major U.S. indexes fell as concerns about returns on AI investments, combined with a sharp rise in international oil prices, triggered further selling of technology stocks.

The Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.15%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.5%, and the S&P 500 dropped 1.1%. For the week, the Nasdaq fell 4.48% overall, while the Dow Jones rose 0.68%, marking the biggest weekly divergence between the two since July 2002. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for an eighth consecutive day, its longest losing streak since 2008.

“The Biden administration has done many terrible things regarding Ukraine.” When asked about inflation, Trump again asserted: “Oil prices will come down soon. Israel’s help to Saudi Arabia has been tremendous, and the Abraham Accords are once again an important topic for Saudi Arabia.”
#NasdaqDowWeeklyGapWidestSinceJuly2002
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#CelestiaLaunchesEdenToTestAIAgentTrading

Celestia’s launch of Eden drives TIA’s price higher, but resistance looms at $0.80.

TIA’s price rose 23% to $0.754 after Celestia introduced Eden, an EVM chain for experiments in agent-based commerce. The recent rally has pushed the TIA token toward the $0.80–$0.85 resistance zone after months of consolidation.

Celestia (TIA) surged 23% to $0.754 after the introduction of Eden, a high-performance EVM chain designed to test AI agent transactions on the blockchain.

The launch highlights a new use case as blockchain projects explore autonomous payments and agent-driven commerce. TIA’s strong recovery has brought the token closer to $0.80, a level that could determine whether the rally continues or loses momentum.
#CelestiaRises16%To2026High
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#AIAndSemiconductorStocksLoseOver$1TThisWeek

The AI bubble: not one bubble, but three on the verge of bursting.

The AI market is facing three overlapping bubbles: inflated earnings expectations, interconnected financial risks, and excessive concentration of capital.

Goldman Sachs forecasts trillions of dollars in AI infrastructure spending, while Gartner estimates that cumulative revenues could fall far short of what is needed to justify a 12% return.

The semiconductor sector’s profits remain heavily dependent on capital investment by Big Tech. Even a slowdown in spending growth could trigger sharp downward earnings revisions and valuation compression.
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#NEARRisesNearly10%

The native token of NEAR Protocol has risen 9.9% in the last 24 hours, reaching a price of $5.33 USD following a strong rebound in the crypto market led by Bitcoin.

The ecosystem has seen a significant surge in volume, driven by institutional interest and its cross-chain trading infrastructure. The upward move triggered the liquidation of more than $1 million in short positions on major platforms such as Binance, Bybit, and OKX, accelerating the rise.

NEAR Intents (its tool for transferring assets between different blockchains without traditional bridges) recorded a record volume of swap transactions, generating constant buybacks of the native token through network fees.

Medium-term optimism is supported by the recent launch of the Bitwise NEAR ETF in the U.S. and an active governance proposal to reduce the annual token issuance from 2.5% to 1.6%, which would ease the asset’s inflationary pressure
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#WarshPushesToScaleBackForwardGuidanceAndDotPlot

Warsh’s quest for a quiet Federal Reserve faces strong resistance.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s call for a “more discreet” central bank is facing pushback from colleagues who see public communication as a fundamental part of their job and have turned to television, podcasts, interviews, social media and speaking engagements to make their policy views known.

Their voices have made a difference. More than 40 appearances by nearly all of Warsh’s colleagues at the central bank persuaded traders to scale back bets on a rate hike, which had risen after September’s rate increase and Warsh’s own silence about how much more the Federal Reserve might need to do.

Data released Wednesday showed consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, once again disrupting financial markets’ expectations for the Federal Reserve. A rate hike in October is now seen as a toss-up, an extraordinary lack of clarity that highlights the consequences of Warsh’s preference for silence.
#CPIWatch
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#EthereumDropsBelow$2500

Ethereum is trading below $2,500 USD (around $2,480 USDT) amid widespread selling pressure and macroeconomic and market factors.

• Pullback by large institutional buyers: BitMine Immersion Technologies (chaired by Tom Lee) announced a 5% ownership cap on the Ethereum supply and is about 100,000 ETH away from completing its purchases, reducing expectations of continued demand.

• Outflows from Spot ETFs: Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded multiple consecutive sessions of net outflows (recently falling from $17.7 billion to $15.7 billion).

• Shift in supply scarcity: Ethereum's fee burn no longer exceeds new coin issuance, so the total supply has started expanding again.

• Macroeconomic pressure and liquidations: The previous rise in U.S. Treasury yields and volatility in global markets have triggered cascades of liquidations in leveraged positions (mainly ETH futures longs).
#USEthereumETFsSee10StraightDaysOfOutflows
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#CPIWatch

The S&P 500’s narrow rally faces fresh tests from CPI and bank earnings.

The S&P 500 is near record highs, although its rally remains concentrated; options markets show limited demand for short-term protection, and regional banks continue to lag. September inflation data and a new round of bank earnings could test this delicate balance this week.

The S&P 500 has risen approximately 80% since the beginning of 2024, but gains have not been evenly distributed across the market. The market-cap-weighted index has outperformed its equal-weighted counterpart by about 16 percentage points, underscoring how much the rally has depended on a smaller group of large-cap stocks.

The rally has also narrowed since the spring 2026 low. Concentration is not a sell signal, but it does change the risk profile. An index supported by just a few companies is more exposed to disappointing earnings or a sudden rise in yields.

Strong inflation data this week could complicate the outlook for interest-rate cuts and weigh on risk appetite, while a more moderate reading could help sustain stocks beyond the market’s biggest companies.
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#BitcoinDipsBelow$81K

The cryptocurrency market plunges as Bitcoin falls below $81,000 and Ether drops below $2,500 amid heavy selling.

The cryptocurrency market plunges as Bitcoin falls below $81,000 and Ether drops below $2,500 amid heavy selling. Bitcoin fell 1.55% to below $81,000, and Ether dropped 3.88% to below $2,500 during a broad downturn in the cryptocurrency market that pushed most sectors lower.

The AI sector led the declines, falling 5.09%, while DeFi, CeFi, meme, and Tier 1 assets also weakened significantly. Despite the broad decline, some tokens, such as SoSoValue and Starknet, posted gains.

This widespread sell-off highlights continued volatility in the cryptocurrency market, suggesting cautious investor sentiment.

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#ReusedBitcoinAddressesHold4.33MBTC

Bitcoin address reuse leaves 4.33 million BTC with exposed public keys.

Data shows that more than one-fifth of the circulating supply is now held behind visible public keys because users continue to reuse addresses.

An increasing share of Bitcoin is in circulation. According to an on-chain analysis, the balance held in reused Bitcoin addresses has risen to 4.33 million BTC, representing approximately 21.5% of the circulating supply.

That figure has recently increased by 14%. Bitcoin was designed to let people create a new address for each transaction, but many holders continue to use the same one.

One analysis puts address reuse at the heart of a broader exposure problem. Combining reuse with older, structural address types brings the total amount of BTC held behind visible public keys to 6.26 million BTC, or 31.2% of the total supply.
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#EvernorthDelaysNasdaqDebutToOct12

Evernorth Holdings’ Nasdaq debut under the ticker symbol XRPN has been postponed until Monday, October 12, 2026.

New debut date: October 12, 2026 (previously scheduled for October 8). The business combination with Armada Acquisition Corp. II is expected to close on October 9, 2026 (previously scheduled for October 7).

At closing, Evernorth is expected to hold approximately 473 million XRP tokens and nearly $300 million in gross cash proceeds.
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#IMFSaysTokenizedMarketsSmall

The tokenized market remains small and fragmented and needs legal and regulatory clarity.

The daily trading volume in tokenized repos is around 300,000-350,000 million dollars, while other tokenized assets are valued at around 65,000 million dollars. Liquidity and cryptocurrency markets face challenges, such as low liquidity and greater volatility.

The report underscores the need for legal clarity, regulatory consistency, and counter-terrorism financing (CFT) measures to mitigate risks. Policymakers must ensure smooth integration between platforms and traditional systems.

The report notes that investors have shown interest in certain features of tokenization; more than half of transactions take place outside traditional market hours and around 80% of tokenized stock trades involve less than one share.
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#IMFGrantsWaiverForElSalvadorBitcoinBreach

The IMF expects El Salvador not to buy any more BTC.

After completing the second and third reviews of El Salvador’s financing agreement, the IMF made key announcements about the country’s commitment to Bitcoin. Recently, this Central American country has shown the world that a state can include Bitcoin in its financial strategy.

The IMF approved a $139 million disbursement for El Salvador. This disbursement rewards the country for better-than-expected economic performance, evidenced by increased investor confidence and improved security conditions in the nation.

Although El Salvador breached the rules on Bitcoin accumulation under its $1.4 billion credit agreement, the IMF granted it a waiver, recognizing the corrective measures taken and its renewed commitment to reduce the government’s involvement in Bitcoin-related activities.
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#FedMinutesFocusOnOctoberPause

The minutes of the Federal Reserve do not show urgency for a price increase in October.

That is the main conclusion of the latest Federal Reserve minutes, published Wednesday.

In addition, bond yields are rising everywhere except in China.

Most participants considered that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would probably be appropriate by year-end, the minutes indicated. However, participants emphasized that they approached each meeting with an open mind and that decisions at future meetings would depend on the information received.
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#FedOctoberHoldOdds82.3%

Interest rates can also fall!", while the odds of a Fed hike in October drop to 21.6%: here's what traders are betting.

CME FedWatch shows a 21.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting on October 28. However, futures traders currently estimate a 78.4% probability that the central bank will leave its target interest rate unchanged.

The shift in October odds comes after the Federal Reserve's decision on September 16 to raise its benchmark target range by a quarter of a percentage point, to 3.75%-4.00%. This marked the central bank's first interest rate hike since 2023.
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#StriveBuys2000BTCFor$169M

Strive published unaudited preliminary third-quarter figures alongside information about the purchase. The company acquired 8,137 BTC during the three months ended September 30 at an average price of $78,885. At quarter-end, it held 28,000 BTC and approximately $284.7 million in cash and cash equivalents.

The company also reported that it holds approximately $50.2 million worth of Strategy’s STRC preferred shares. BTC yield through September 30 stood at 63.2%, with a yield of 18.5% in the third quarter alone. Strive defines BTC yield as the percentage change in bitcoin held per estimated diluted share, a metric that does not reflect preferred stock obligations or fluctuations in the price of bitcoin.

Bitcoin value per estimated diluted share was 27,801 satoshis at quarter-end. The company’s amplification ratio, which compares preferred equity and debt obligations with the value of its Bitcoin treasury, stood at 55.3%. Management has stated that it intends to raise and maintain this ratio above 60% while Bitcoin is trading below $100,000.
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#DriftHackVictimsBeginClaims

Drift Protocol opens recovery claims at 1.04% of losses.

Drift Protocol launched an update on October 1, enabling recovery claims for the DFX token. Users affected by the April 2026 DeFi exploit can redeem 0.0104 USDT for each DFX, covering 1.04% of confirmed losses.

Drift Protocol opened the claim period for redeeming its DFX recovery token on October 1, offering victims of the April exploit a way to receive the stablecoin USDT from the recovery fund. This option comes with a permanent trade-off: redeemed tokens are burned and will no longer be eligible for future deposits.

In its launch announcement, Drift described a payout of approximately 0.0104 USDT per DFX from a fund containing around 3.1 million USDT. Since victims receive one DFX for each USDT of verified losses, this initial rate represented approximately 1.04% of the corresponding loss.

DFX is a transferable token on Solana, separate from the DRIFT governance token. Drift set its fixed allocation at 299,500,810.998 DFX, corresponding to nearly 299.5 million USDT in verified losses. The circulating supply decreases as tokens are burned.
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#Nikkei225Jumps2.5%ToThreeMonthHigh

Japanese stocks closed higher; the Nikkei 225 rose 2.45% to reach a new three-month high.

The best-performing stocks of the session on the Nikkei 225 were Renesas Electronics Corp ( TYO:6723 ), which rose 8.03% or 287.00 points to trade at 3,862.00 at the close. Meanwhile, TDK Corp ( TYO:6762 ) added 7.79% or 249.00 points to finish at 3,447.00 and Disco Corp ( TYO:6146 ) rose 5.71% or 3,440.00 points to 63,730.00 at the close of the session.

The worst-performing companies of the session were Shionogi \u0026 Co., Ltd. ( TYO:4507 ), which fell 4.49% or 125.00 points to trade at 2,661.00 at the close. Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ( TYO:5019 ) declined 2.15% or 33.50 points to finish at 1,526.50 and Sumitomo Pharma Co Ltd ( TYO:4506 ) fell 2.14% or 34.50 points to 1,579.00.
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#BitcoinRejectedAt$87K

The massive sell-off of Bitcoin by large investors occurred when the price reached $87,000. Does the $84,000 level represent a new buying opportunity?

Bitcoin’s rebound toward $87,000 was compromised even before it began; it pointed to two simultaneous forces that halted the advance at the same level: profit-taking of more than 30,000 BTC by large investors and the top of a descending channel that has repeatedly rejected Bitcoin’s move upward.

The $87,000 level was not a random resistance; it marks the upper boundary of a channel structure that has diverted Bitcoin in multiple prior attempts. When the upper limit of a descending channel aligns with a significant supply inflow to the market, the rejection is rarely a one-off event; it usually sets the tone for the subsequent corrective phase.

Whale data reinforces this interpretation. Large investors sold more than 30,000 BTC as the price rose toward $87,000. At current market prices, this represents approximately $2.54 billion in executed supply that entered the market during the rally.
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#G7PlansToReleaseUpTo100MBarrelsOilDiesel

The G7 will release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil.

The Group of Seven and its partners plan to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves, ending a week of mounting pressure from the Trump administration to rein in soaring fuel prices.

The coordinated launch by the International Energy Agency will take place over the next four months, initially focusing on diesel, French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Friday. This measure aims to send a clear signal to the markets.
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