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Tonight, the focus of the entire market is on just one thing:
U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP).
The market originally expected about 90,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. But the recently released data showed only 29,000 new jobs—far below market expectations. (FXStreet)
What does this mean?
It means the U.S. labor market is cooling down.
When job growth slows, the Fed can maintain less hawkish pressure, and the market may start pricing in a more accommodative liquidity environment again. (Reuters)
And what the crypto market likes most has never been high interest rates.
It’s liquidity.
Recently, U.S. Treasury yields have been falling steadily, and market expectations for further rate hikes have clearly dropped. Money has begun looking again for opportunities in risk assets. (Binance)
Many people are watching how much Bitcoin is up today.
But what’s truly worth paying attention to is this:
Whether global capital is starting to shift from a “defensive mode” to an “offensive mode.”
If, over the next few months, inflation keeps cooling, employment continues to slow, and the economy does not fall into a recession.
Then the market could see its most comfortable scenario:
📈 Liquidity returns 📈 Pressure on the U.S. dollar eases 📈 Risk assets benefit 📈 Crypto market re-prices
A bull market is never born in a single day.
It’s built up slowly while most people still haven’t noticed.
Tonight’s NFP may just be one piece of the next major move.
I’ve found that many investors share a common anxiety: they always feel like they’re arriving too late.
When Bitcoin rose from a few thousand dollars to tens of thousands, some people thought, “If I’d known back then, I should have bought.” After an ETF got approved, others felt, “Institutions have already moved in—so is buying now too late?” When a certain meme coin surged dozens of times, they started regretting why they hadn’t discovered it earlier.
But what’s interesting is that this emotion shows up in every market cycle—and it never really disappears.
In 2017, some people felt they’d missed Bitcoin. In 2021, others felt they’d missed DeFi and NFTs. And now, people feel they’ve missed AI, stablecoins, or other popular tracks. Yet if you zoom out and look at the bigger picture, what the market has always lacked isn’t opportunity—it’s the ability to recognize opportunities.
Many people treat investing like a treasure hunt, thinking that finding the next 100x coin can change their lives. But in reality, most people who can profit over the long term aren’t successful because they find the earliest opportunity every time. It’s because they know what’s worth waiting for—and what’s just brief, passing excitement.
That’s the question I’ve been thinking about lately. The market creates new topics every day, but not every topic becomes a trend. Prices move every day, but not every fluctuation is worth chasing. What truly matters may not be running faster than everyone else—but seeing farther than most people.
Because once you expand the time horizon, you’ll realize that many opportunities that used to seem too late are, in fact, just beginning.
Because there’s a harsh reality in the market: when an opportunity becomes visible to everyone, it’s usually no longer cheap.
Many people wake up every day and their first thing is to scroll the news, check the candlestick charts, and look for good news—hoping to discover opportunities earlier than the market. But what often drives assets to increase significantly in value isn’t those headline-grabbing messages; it’s the changes that are already happening, yet haven’t been fully priced in by the market.
Looking back at history—whether it was the Bitcoin ETF, the AI boom, or the explosive growth of stablecoins—when they became a mainstream topic, the earliest players had already entered the market. The market is never short of news; what it lacks is the ability to spot trends before the news shows up.
That’s also the biggest insight I’ve been feeling about the market recently. Many people focus on the data from a particular day, a single meeting, or one policy. But what truly affects the future few quarters, even the next few years, is usually those slow, accumulating changes.
Money flows are shifting, industry structure is changing, and market participants are changing too. Individually, these things might not seem worth discussing. But when they happen at the same time, a new trend often quietly begins.
So the more I’m asking less about “what’s the next piece of good news,” and instead I’m starting to ask: “What’s changing, and the market hasn’t fully noticed yet?”
Because in investing, the biggest returns often don’t come from chasing hot spots—they come from seeing them before they emerge.
The world’s biggest market activity isn’t actually cryptocurrency.
It’s U.S. Treasuries.
What’s interesting is.
Most people only remember it when a crisis happens.
Most of the time, almost nobody cares.
But global capital, interest rates, U.S. dollar liquidity, and even the valuations of risk assets—many times, they can’t get around the U.S. Treasuries market.
So I’ve always thought.
U.S. Treasuries are a bit like the ocean’s water level.
Every day it looks like nothing has changed.
But all the ships are actually rising and falling with it.
When yields fall.
Capital starts looking for higher returns.
When yields rise.
Capital returns to the safe zone.
Many people think the market is trading prices.
But often,
the market is really trading where capital is parked.
And U.S. Treasuries,
happen to be the world’s largest parking lot.
So when more and more people start discussing U.S. Treasuries,
I’m paying attention not to the bonds themselves.
But to the capital parked in that lot.
When it’s preparing to hit the road again.
Because what truly changes the direction of the market.
The busy rush of the day gradually arrives at the stop—some people get off to rest, and some still want to watch the scenery outside the window for a little longer.
If you’re still not off yet…
See you in the live stream tonight. $BTC $ETH $BNB
金先生聊MEME
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[Replay] 🎙️ ETH is still here, and there's still a chance to board on Dogecoin with Musk's little dog