I used to think U.S. Treasury bonds were an investment.

Then I found out.

For many large institutions, Treasuries are not really assets.

They’re “waiting.”

When you don’t know what else to buy.

Buy Treasuries.

When the risk is too high.

Buy Treasuries.

When the market direction is unclear.

Still, buy Treasuries.

So there’s an interesting phenomenon in the Treasury market.

It often doesn’t rise because everyone is bullish on Treasuries.

Instead, it rises because people can’t find anywhere better to go—at least for now.

That’s why I think Treasuries are like an airport departure lounge.

Nobody comes to a lounge because they want the lounge.

They’re just waiting for the next flight.

And what global capital is doing right now.

To some extent, it’s the same.

Some people are waiting for rate cuts.

Some people are waiting for economic data.

Some people are waiting for the next industrial revolution.

Some people are waiting for the next wave of risk appetite to return.

So lately, I’ve been looking at U.S. Treasuries.

Not really at the yields.

But at how much money is still sitting in the lounge.

Because when the waiting finally ends—

the market may not be reacting to changes in bonds.

It may be reacting to changes in the direction of the entire flow of capital.

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