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The article comes from Teacher P's detailed explanation of the minutes of the September Federal Reserve meeting - there is almost no moisture and it is very difficult to read. Those who are conclusive can directly read the summary version. Yesterday, I was talking about the minutes of the September Federal Reserve meeting that we should pay close attention to. They are indeed very hawkish. However, some friends will definitely ask why the market, at least the U.S. stock market, has no obvious reaction. The U.S. dollar is also falling, and U.S. bond yields are also falling. In fact, we also talked about this issue yesterday, because in September, the market's view was still on inflation. Although the yield on U.S. bonds was high at that time, it was around 4.5% for both ten-year and twenty-year bonds. In the next month, the ten-year yield will almost exceed 5%, and the 20-year yield will reach a maximum of 5.25%. We have also talked about the harm of high interest rates, which will exacerbate the instability of the financial market, so we will start by breaking the "five" , the Fed's hawkish thinking has become much more restrained. Currently, except for Fed Governor Bowman, all those speaking publicly have shown obvious signs of turning dovish. Therefore, even though the minutes of the September meeting are not very friendly, more investors still think that this is "outdated" information. Now the Federal Reserve "dare not" continue to raise interest rates. Of course, this is also because it has reached the limit. The market did not react much to this. Even Bowman, who believed that interest rates needed to be raised, was not very tough in tone, and also admitted that the current high yield on U.S. debt requires the Federal Reserve to pay attention and remain cautious about interest rates. s reason. At present, the market expects that the probability of raising interest rates in November is only 8.5%. When we looked at it on Tuesday, it was still 14%, while last week it was 23%. This shows that the probability of raising interest rates in November is almost unnecessary to calculate. Of course, this is also in our As expected, in September we predicted that even if interest rates were to be raised, it would most likely happen in December. Although the probability of a rate hike in November continues to decrease, the probability of a rate hike in December has increased to 26.1%. Tuesday's data was 23.9%, but it is still lower than last week's 35%. It's a little early to discuss raising interest rates in December. After all, there are still two months of data to look at. The only thing that needs to be remembered is that the Fed's inflation expectation for 2023 is for the core PCE to fall to 3.3% or less. If it can The high probability of achieving this goal is that the interest rate hike cycle will end and enter the stage of suspending interest rate hikes. If this is not achieved, I would not be surprised if the interest rate is raised to 6%.In addition, we still need to see if there are any pitfalls in the minutes of this meeting. After all, even if interest rates are not raised, maintaining an interest rate of 5.5% will still make the market very fragile. In the minutes of this meeting, the Fed has actually considered the interest rate issue on long-term Treasury bonds. Of course, as we said before, although it has been considered, on the one hand, the interest rate is not that ridiculously high, and on the other hand, the market does not care after all. Gambling the Federal Reserve is a tradition, whether you can win or not is another matter. Secondly, the Federal Reserve believes that the current GDP of the United States is still growing steadily and the labor market continues to be tight. Although the employment situation has slowed down somewhat, the unemployment rate is still very low. Consumer price inflation (PCE) has increased by 3.3% in the past 12 months. However, core price inflation excluding food and energy (core PCE) rose by 4.2%. Automobile products increased exports. However, as the growth in imports of goods and services exceeded export growth, the U.S. nominal international trade deficit expanded. Credit quality deteriorated further in many sectors but remained generally stable. In commercial real estate, delinquency rates for nonfarm, nonresidential commercial real estate bank loans increased in the second quarter, while delinquency rates for construction, land development and multifamily loans remained roughly unchanged. Loan delinquencies in CMBS pools have risen, driven by the office and retail sectors. Office delinquency rates have increased 2% since January but remain below pre-pandemic averages. Delinquency rates for small business loans increased in June and July. Delinquency rates for credit cards and auto loans rose further in the second quarter and were slightly above average levels in the years before the pandemic. Despite rising interest rates, demand for housing remains strong and new home construction is solid, partly reflecting the limited inventory of homes available for sale. The share of potential borrowers with good credit scores expanded in the second quarter, further above pre-pandemic levels. Trailing default rates for investment and speculative corporate bonds rose in July but remain at historically low levels. Net trailing default rates on leveraged loans changed little, but downgrades on leveraged loans in July and August outweighed upgrades. Home mortgages have improved payment performance compared to many other types of loans.Delinquency rates for Federal Housing Administration and Department of Veterans Affairs loans were lower in July than earlier in the year, and delinquency rates for conventional loans remain at historically low levels. Credit quality for municipal borrowers is also high. Amid high inflation and falling savings, some households are facing financial pressure and are increasingly relying on credit to cover expenses. In discussing the policy outlook, participants continued to believe that the stance of monetary policy must remain sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the Committee's 2% objective over time. Most participants believed that another increase in the federal funds target rate at a future meeting may be appropriate, while some participants believed that further increases were not necessary. Some participants noted that the balance sheet drain could continue for some time even after the Committee begins lowering the target range for the federal funds rate. Participants noted that the ongoing process of reducing the size of the Fed's balance sheet is an important component of the overall approach to achieving its macroeconomic goals. So let’s start with the conclusion that more Fed officials feel that they should continue to raise interest rates, and more people feel that even if interest rates are cut, they need to continue shrinking their balance sheet and maintain the inflation target of less than 2%. Secondly, for the U.S. economy, it is believed that economic activity has been expanding steadily, so the corresponding language in the post-meeting statement should be changed from "moderate" to "stable." Views the U.S. banking system as sound and resilient. It was agreed that tighter credit conditions for households and businesses could weigh on economic activity, employment and inflation, but the extent of these effects was uncertain. Members also agreed that they remain highly concerned about inflation risks. For risk markets, the Fed's minutes are still not good news even if they remove the part about raising interest rates. It is obvious that the pressure on household finances will be increasing. Even if excess savings can last for a while, data has shown that more households are gradually increasing their reliance on credit. And although the overall bad debt rate is still within a controllable range, maintaining high interest rates is not going to end now, but has just begun. It can be expected that credit defaults will become more and more serious by mid-2024, and in this case How much money can be invested in the risk market? If the US stock market continues to perform well, there will be the possibility of gambling, but if it cannot maintain a sustained rise, funds will inevitably choose to focus on risk aversion. For#BTCand #ETH, Liquidity may be further squeezed unless something epic happens.This post is sponsored by @OfficialApeXdex｜Dex With ApeX

The impact of the world war situation on investment and Bitcoin is multi-faceted, covering the global economy, investment, and cryptocurrency markets. Here are some of the key impacts: 1. Global Investment: • Global foreign direct investment (FDI) fell 12% in 2022 due to overlapping global crises – notably the war in Ukraine, rising food and energy prices, and rising public debt , down to $1.3 trillion. The decline was mainly felt in advanced economies, where FDI fell by 37% to $378 billion. • The World Bank forecasts global growth of 3.6% in 2022 and 2023, 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower than its January forecast, due to the direct impact of the war and global spillovers. Russia and Ukraine are both expected to experience significant GDP contractions in 2022. • The impact of the war in Ukraine and the pandemic on global supply chains and access to global goods appears to have reintroduced geostrategic regionalization, including in China. 2. Bitcoin: • Demand for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has increased in Russia, especially as the ruble has been hit by Western sanctions, and transaction volumes have increased significantly. Bitcoin is seen as a means to protect assets from government intervention and protect savings from inflation. • While some investors view Bitcoin as “digital gold,” a good place to store cash during a war or disaster, its safe haven status remains unclear. Bitcoin typically behaves more like riskier assets such as stocks. These effects show how a global war situation affects investing and the Bitcoin market, as well as the possible interconnections between them. At present, it should be bullish

The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, global conflicts and various countries' economic cycles on the trend of cryptocurrency is multifaceted. The following are some observations and analyses: 1. Impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike: • Consumption and business spending: The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike may curb personal and corporate spending, thereby having a knock-on effect on risky assets, such as cryptocurrencies. • Cryptocurrency price declines: Historically, cryptocurrency prices have underperformed during periods of high interest rates. For example, Bitcoin fell by more than 84% during the four Fed rate hikes in 2018, but rebounded after the Fed cut interest rates twice in 2019. • Crypto Market Reaction: Cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Cardano and Terra fell sharply overnight after the Federal Reserve signaled it might start raising interest rates to combat stubbornly high inflation. 2. Impact of Global Conflict: • Global conflict may affect the economic cycles of countries and may cause investors to seek safer or more stable assets instead of riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. 3. Cryptocurrency market reaction: • Cryptocurrency-related stocks rebounded from the day’s lows following the announcement of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, showing the crypto market’s rapid response to interest rate changes. To sum up, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, global conflicts and the economic cycles of various countries may affect the trend of cryptocurrencies to varying degrees. My conclusion is that it is before Niu Chu

The U.S. government’s impact on Bitcoin is mainly reflected in the following aspects: 1. Sales and transfer of Bitcoin: • The U.S. government plans to sell the remaining 41,490 Bitcoins seized from the Silk Road website in four installments this year of Bitcoin. This action by the U.S. government has triggered concerns among cryptocurrency traders. • The U.S. government recovered $1 billion worth of Bitcoin from dark web hackers and moved it to new wallet addresses, including Coinbase, also raising concerns among investors. 2. Holding Bitcoin: • The U.S. government reportedly holds over 205,000 Bitcoins, making the U.S. government a larger holder of Bitcoin than both MicroStrategy and Tesla, holding 10% of the current circulating supply. More than 1%. At current market prices, these Bitcoins are worth approximately $5.7 billion. 3. Legal and regulatory: • As some leaked information shows that the United States may further strengthen its supervision of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, this has brought uncertainty to the price of Bitcoin. In addition, the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council also recommended that Congress pass new laws to address issues related to cryptocurrency. These actions and policies may affect Bitcoin’s market price, trading volume, and Bitcoin’s acceptance in the United States and globally.

Recent policy changes in China and Hong Kong have had a certain impact on Bitcoin: 1. Updates to Hong Kong’s regulatory framework: • In June 2023, Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission launched a new regulatory framework for virtual assets, providing new regulatory frameworks for Bitcoin, etc. Cryptocurrencies set new standards for legality and market acceptance. 2. Shanghai Court Ruling: • A recent ruling by the Shanghai Second Intermediate People’s Court confirmed Bitcoin’s legal status in China, describing Bitcoin as a “unique and non-replicable” asset, a legal position that may serve as a basis for Bitcoin and others The legality and acceptance of cryptocurrencies in China opens up new possibilities. 3. China’s long-term perspective on digital currencies: • Although the People’s Bank of China does not explicitly recognize Bitcoin, the Shanghai court’s position shows a more comprehensive understanding of digital assets and may make Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies personal property in China Classification opens doors. 4. China’s interaction with the global economy: • China may be exploring cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin to ease its complex financial relationship with the global economy, especially the United States. The legalization of Bitcoin may be seen as a way to respond to international market demand and economic instability. These changes could affect the acceptance and value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in China and around the world.