只会呐喊的尖刀手

• Everything you hesitated to buy and didn’t buy has nothing to do with you later when it goes up; everything you were lucky enough not to sell and didn’t sell later, even if it drops, is also just fate.

• What we call maturity is learning to turn “I want to make quick money” into “I want to live long.”

• In the crypto world, there is no savior—only you, who studies the chart in the dead of night, and calmly adds more during a crash.

• Accepting losses is part of trading, just like accepting rainy days is part of life. The person with an umbrella doesn’t fear getting soaked.

• “To Da Moon” isn’t the destination, financial freedom isn’t the destination either—the real destination is the ability to always keep control of your own life.

The 8·9 roller coaster of $TUT : up 6x in a day—then slashed in half; the leveraged board gets washed from both ends

On August 9, 2026, a Tutorial (TUT) on BSC printed an extreme daily candlestick: according to Ember monitoring, the price was pushed from $0.045 to $0.305. The maximum gain was about 6x. In 24 hours, spot volume reached $570 million, while derivatives volume hit $2.5 billion. After spiking, it pulled back 44% within one hour; in a single hour, total liquidations across the web totaled $34.02 million (short liquidations: $32.78 million).

The spark was the launch of TUT perps (with leverage) on Aster DEX on August 6. After micro-cap coins were allowed to short, buy orders rushed in, triggering short covering. Short stop-losses bought more as prices rose, creating a self-reinforcing short squeeze feedback loop. Combined with BTC reclaiming above 65,000, funds spilled into BSC micro-caps, and TUT became an outlet for market sentiment.

The downside is also determined by structure: wallets holding coins are nearly 99% concentrated among the TOP100, and control over the supply is about 86.6% in TOP5. On a day of explosive pumps, 160 million coins (20% of the total supply) transferred from Binance to Bitget, which the market interpreted as the controlling party repositioning liquidity to ramp up and distribute.

After RSI touched 86 (overbought), profit-taking loosened—yet there was no follow-through, so it was dumped down 44% within an hour.

This has nothing to do with fundamentals. It’s the standard template of: a new contract launches + short-killing + high-control repositioning. The lesson is blunt: for micro-cap high-control coins, most “explosive rallies” are liquidity traps; new perps are not the start of a trend but an amplifier of volatility. Surviving through a 6x jump in one day, a 44% drop in one hour, and $34 million wiped out in a single hour belongs to the ones with light positions and fast exits. As of the night of the 9th, TUT was oscillating around $0.16, down nearly half from its high.

@Time_Immeasurable

@静心1688

@OrangeJoyce

@OrangeJoyce

🧧🧧🧧

On August 7, SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $133.11, with its market cap rebounding to around the $1.75 trillion mark. It has filled most of the gap from the 13.6% plunge on August 5—when Q2 earnings sparked a spike in AI-related capital expenditure (a single quarter of $15.8 billion, doubling quarter-over-quarter). That drop had briefly allowed it to be overtaken by Meta (about $1.50 trillion) in market capitalization, pulling SpaceX back into the global top 12 by market cap.

The essence of this tug-of-war isn’t “a rocket company beating an advertising company.” Instead, the market is reshuffling how it weights valuation for the “future infrastructure.” Meta’s $1.5 trillion valuation anchors to monetizing traffic from Facebook/Instagram and AI-ad ROI—cash flows are thick, but the narrative’s ceiling is visible. SpaceX’s valuation anchor is Starlink’s 12 million users generating “blood” plus the orbital data center “Starmind/AI1,” and the “2029 ARR of $100 billion, 2030 revenue of $1 trillion” ambitions. The former is something DCF can calculate today; the latter is an option-premium style bet on a lunar-to-earth computing network for 30 years from now.

From the IPO day close at $161 and a market cap spike to $2.1 trillion in June, to slipping below the $135 issue price late July, to plunging as low as $108 on August 5 ($1.43 trillion), and then this week’s post-release period showing no selling pressure—followed by a two-day rally of 23% back to $1.6 trillion+—this rollercoaster cycle of bull and bear moves within just two months after the IPO actually shows bulls and bears fiercely market-making prices for a “non–predefined underlying.” The bulls are massaging the Morgan Stanley model, running orbital AI ahead of terrestrial compute by 2032 and assigning 50%+ valuation weight to the AI business. The bears counter with Deutsche Bank’s view that “space non-compute costs are 6x that of ground” and Morningstar’s fair value of $62.

Musk says he will issue an AI1 prototype at the start of 2027, push orbital compute to 1GW by the end of the year, and that the orbital data centers “aren’t a distant thing.” Is that crazy? Of course. But the logic behind Goldman Sachs calling for $220 and Citi targeting $900 has never been about “how much profit this year.” It’s about how much the capital market is willing to pay up, on a cross-period discounted basis, for an audacious idea that is falsifiable. SpaceX has taken the ball to the frontier of whether “space compute can turn a price-to-crazy ratio into EBITDA.” The next kick won’t be CPI—it’ll be whether those satellites slated for 2027 actually can power on.
#spacex #meta

On August 7, SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $133.11, and its market value bounced back to around the $1.75 trillion line. This largely fills the gap from the sharp 13.6% drop on August 5, when AI-capex surged after the Q2 earnings report (a single quarter of $15.8 billion, doubling quarter over quarter). It also enabled SpaceX to retake the lead briefly stolen by Meta (about $1.50 trillion), pushing SpaceX back into the global top 12 by market cap.

At its core, this tug-of-war isn’t really about “a rocket company beating an advertising company.” It’s the market rewriting the valuation weights for the “future infrastructure.” Meta’s $1.5 trillion anchor is tied to monetizing traffic from Facebook/Instagram with AI-advertising ROI—cash flows are thick, but the narrative ceiling is visible. SpaceX’s valuation anchor, by contrast, rests on a different premise: Starlink’s bloodline from 12 million users, an “orbit data center” storyline built around “Starmind/AI1,” plus the “$100 billion ARR in 2029, and $1 trillion revenue in 2030” dream. The former is now that DCF can calculate; the latter is an option premium for a Moon–Mars computation network 30 years out.

From closing at $161 on the first day of its June IPO and surging toward a $2.1 trillion valuation, to falling below its $135 offer price by late July, then dropping to as low as $108 on August 5 ($1.43 trillion), and finally—this week—seeing no selling pressure after the lock-up expiration, with a two-day rebound of 23% back to $1.6 trillion+: this roller-coaster that completes a bull-bear cycle within two months after the IPO precisely shows bulls and bears making an aggressive market for a “no prior clear benchmark” asset. The bulls—who massage the Morgan Stanley model—calculate that orbit AI will surpass ground compute by 2032 and assign 50%+ valuation weight to AI. The bears counter with concerns from Deutsche Bank—“the non-compute cost in space is 6x that on the ground”—and with a $62 fair-value push from Morningstar.

Musk says an AI1 prototype will be issued in early 2027, space compute will surge to 1GW by the end of the year, and that orbit data centers are “not something far away.” Is that crazy? Of course. But the logic behind Goldman calling for $220 and Citigroup looking for $900 since the IPO was never “how much it will earn this year.” Instead, it’s about how much the capital market is willing to pay for audacious, falsifiable ideas—using cross-period discounting. SpaceX has taken the ball to the frontier of whether “space compute” can convert the market’s dream multiple into EBITDA. The next shot isn’t CPI—it’s whether the batches of satellites in 2027 truly can power on.
#spaceX #meta

US July jobs report shatters the “employment resilience” narrative: new jobs -23,000 (vs. +80,000 expected). The combined April and May figure was revised down by 103,000, and the three-month average has been dragged to only about 20,000. The labor force participation rate also fell to a five-year low—this is not just single-month noise, but a continuous confirmation that hiring demand is generally weakening.

The market’s first reaction was straightforward: the bullet for further rate hikes has been defused. The probability of a September rate hike dropped sharply from the 55%–60% range to around 44%, and expectations for the number of hikes over the year in federal funds futures were cut from 1.35 to just over 1.1. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note jumped down from 4.68% to around 4.65%, the US dollar index broke below 99.5, and gold surged more than 2% in a single day, crossing above 4,350–4,400. The Nasdaq rose 1.3%. The AI supply chain and optical communications continued to draw funds, and even BTC benefited as risk appetite warmed up and caught its breath.

But we’re nowhere near time to pop champagne. This pass has already been sent into the opponent’s half—now the decisive kick is the next CPI (July CPI will be released on August 12, followed by PPI and PCE).

• If inflation continues trending lower, “weak employment + weak inflation” will completely shut the door on Fed rate hikes. The front-end of Treasuries and the dollar will face continued pressure, and liquidity trades in gold/tech stocks/BTC can carry on;

• If oil prices are pushed back up by developments in the Middle East or supply disruptions, CPI will turn upward and the situation will flip into the most troublesome scenario: “weak employment + strong inflation.” The Fed would then be stuck in the middle—unable to hike (for fear of puncturing jobs) and unable to cut (for fear of inflation losing its anchor)—and will likely stay on hold, while the market will quickly unwind the “easing premium.”

The prevailing institutional view right now is: “weak but not breaking; the Fed will wait and see.” Both Huachuang and Dongwu believe that keeping interest rates unchanged through the rest of the year is the baseline case. BlackRock’s Rick Rieder even said bluntly that “there isn’t much point in hiking rates now,” but the Wach side still keeps the option of a September hike if inflation remains too hot. In other words, the jobs report has only carried the ball to the edge of the box—whether the CPI shot is off to the left or to the right will determine whether global liquidity keeps expanding or tightens again. Crude oil and tariff transmission are the most uncontrollable variables in this play.
#US July jobs report unexpectedly declines

• Anything you hesitated to buy and didn’t purchase later—when it rises, it has nothing to do with you; anything you were lucky enough not to sell—and later it falls, it’s all fate.

• What people call maturity is learning how to turn “I want to make quick money” into “I want to live long.”

On this 24/7 battlefield that never sleeps, the biggest misconception is thinking you have to be present at all times.

In fact, having no position is also a form of holding—an ultimate respect for opportunities.

Before a cheetah goes after its prey, it often lies in wait for hours; before a trader makes an entry, they must endure the boredom of waiting.

Those opportunities that seem like you missed them are actually helping you avoid risk.

In this market, most people lose to the illusion of “thinking they understand.”

The real dividing line isn’t whether you bought a hundredfold coin—it’s whether, when a sudden crash hits, you have enough cash flow to get through the winter, and enough cognitive judgment to tell whether this is a “golden opportunity” or a bottomless pit.

Don’t gamble on that 1% miracle—fix the 99% inevitability.

So-called belief isn’t holding on to death after a drop; it’s falling through and then daring to buy, going crazy on the rise and daring to sell.

If you can endure, you’ll stand out; if you can’t, you’ll be out. In this cycle, may you be the one who laughs last.

Hold on to your principal, hone your mindset, and wait for that certain moment that belongs to you.

After all, in this market, being slow is the only way to be fast.

Bide your time in a bear market
Only in a bull market can you catch up and accelerate
🧧🧧🧧
A headwind doesn’t necessarily require flight
With a tailwind, spreading your wings is more comfortable
🌈🌈🌈

🧧 May the black swan be just passing by, and let the grey rhino take a detour

🧧 312 waterfalls catch flying knives, 519 deep V to scoop the bottom

🧧 Leverage on contracts is never fully allocated; spot positions never go to zero

🧧 Not subjected to chain liquidations, not driven by emotions

🧧 When others get liquidated, I add positions; when others are greedy, I step aside

🧧 May your risk-control system be more sensitive than the Federal Reserve, and your cash flow more abundant than Berkshire Hathaway

🧧🥳🧧🥳🧧🥳🎉🎉
Wishing everyone: the coins you buy turn into BNB,

the coins you sell turn into LUNA 😂

Buy the dip while you’re halfway up the hill,
escape the top while you’re still before takeoff

While others are fearful, I’m greedy (adding more);
when others are greedy, I’m even greedier (all-in).

May there be no “going to zero” in your crypto dictionary—only “To the Moon”! 🍻

🧧 Wish: No plug pins, no waterfalls, no limitless drops.

🧧 There is strong momentum, there is a breakout, there are new lows.

🧧 Spot orders are lying flat; futures are chill.

🧧 Don’t be disturbed by volatility—just wait for a hundredfold or more.

May everyone be able to hold onto their principal and keep their profits

Don’t let FOMO emotions sway you, and don’t let FUD news scare you into losing your nerve

Choose the right track and manage your position size

Slow is fast; less is more

In this crazy market, may you and I be the ones who leave last, smiling 🧧🧧🧧