Naval Wang

On September 10, U.S. August PPI came in at 5.4% year over year. Market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Sept. 15–16 FOMC meeting rose from about 65% to about 70%, and this morning it was further reported at 71% (BlockBeats citing Jintian and CME fed funds futures). The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 5.63 basis points to 4.893%, and during the session it climbed further to 4.943%. The 30-year rose to 5.3381%, the highest since 2007. Bitcoin fell below $77,000; a Binance snapshot at 07:41 on Sept. 11 showed 76,753 (-1.88%).
1. The source of this round of decline is interest rates, not the crypto market itself.
First look at the bond market. After the PPI takes effect, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5.96 basis points to 4.487%, the 10-year rose by 5.63 basis points to 4.893%, and the 30-year reached 5.3381% (BlockBeats 9/10 news flash, measured by Jintian). The last time the 30-year figure appeared above 5.33% was still 2007; the long end rising on its own suggests that the market wants duration compensation, not just a one-off PPI pricing adjustment.

SpaceX (SPCX) delivered its results for the third round of lock-up expirations on Sept. 9: opened at 152.04, intraday low 145.55, closed at 147.55, down 3.86%, with about 120 million shares traded (per StockAnalysis: 120,593,463 shares; another timestamp’s count: 119,914,011 shares). The market cap still stands at $2.00 trillion, with a 52-week range of 104.83–225.64. With 120 million shares turning over and the decline of less than 4%, the unlock did not trigger panic selling. Binance bStocks’ SPCXB had, by the evening of Sept. 10, erased the discount down to 0.37%.
1. What exactly happened on the first day of the lock-up expiration
First look at the numbers. In the prior close, 153.47 (Sept. 8). On Sept. 9, the stock opened at 152.04, hit an intraday low of 145.55, closed at 147.55, down 3.86%. Compared with the intraday high on June 15 of 225.64, the current price has pulled back by about 34.6%. Compared with the June 12 IPO offering price of $135, it remains about 9.3% higher. Trading volume was about 120 million shares, which is roughly around the 20% range of the IPO offering size (on the order of 555.6 million shares), completed as turnover on the same trading day.

Brent crude returned above $100 on September 9, the first time since late July (Reuters). Spot gold in New York ended the trading day up 1.02%, at $4,400.29 (Caixin/eds 9/10 05:36). Bitcoin, however, failed to break through 80,000 for the second time and fell back to around 78,000 (Binance market data). In the same inflation event, three assets traced three different curves.
1. Why oil prices broke above 100 first
The driver behind this move past 100 is on the supply side. As the U.S. and Iran escalated their military actions, reports said that the U.S. military destroyed an Iranian oil tanker (franceinfo, Infobae 9/9), leading to the re-pricing of transport premiums related to the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported on September 9 that the intraday price of the Brent November contract rose above $100; LSEG data showed that Dated Brent—one of the key benchmarks for global crude oil pricing, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the total—has been trading above $100 continuously since September 3. WTI closed up about 3% at $95.78 that day, the highest since early June (Infobae).

Beijing time tonight (September 9) at 21:30, after the U.S. stock market opens, about 319 million shares of SpaceX (SPCX) Class A stock will be released from lock-up and become eligible for trading (source: Sina Finance, Nikkei, TipRanks; all figures use the September 9 cut-off). On the eve of the unblocking, the market value of SPCX had already climbed back above $2 trillion, and the Binance bStocks token SPCXB first showed a 6.5% swing during the Asian trading session. The market is using a full trading day in advance to answer the question: does this round of unblocking count as a negative or a positive?
I. Size of the release: tonight, 319 million shares; tomorrow, there will be another batch

September 15: The U.S. Senate will conduct a procedural vote on the CLARITY for Digital Assets Markets Act, requiring 60 votes to advance to a formal debate. On the same day, the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting opens; in the early hours of the next day, it will release the interest-rate decision and the dot plot. Regulatory legislation and monetary policy converge on the same day, and the crypto market begins pricing ahead of time. September 9 at 09:10 (Binance binance.bh): BTC is $78,804 (-0.68%), ETH is $2,496.61 (+0.03%), and XRP is $1.4207 (+1.36%, 24-hour high $1.4507). Among major coins, it strengthens against the trend.

September 8 at 21:36, Binance BH headline: BTC is reported at $77,914, down 1.89% over the past 24 hours. The intraday range is $77,900–$79,485. Trading volume over the past 24 hours is about $1.38 billion; ETH is at $2,449 (-2.03%), BNB at $745 (-0.19%), and ZEC at $1,144 (-3.07%). For BTC, the 4-hour chart from today 08:00 Beijing time has printed four consecutive declining periods: 78,906 → 78,482 → 78,430 → 77,908, with the current price trading right along the intraday low. The market has handed the direction choice to the CPI on September 11 and the FOMC on September 15–16.
1. What is happening on the board

On September 4, Zcash (ZEC) broke through the $1,000 integer level. On September 7, it reached $1,256.98 intraday; according to multiple media reports, this was the highest level since 2016. At one point, its market cap was around $21.1 billion. At 08:30 on September 8, ZEC was trading at $1,134.88, down 6.78% over the past 24 hours. The intraday low was $1,105.02. BTC was at $79,033 (-1.44%), and ETH was at $2,485.53 (-1.24%). This round of privacy-coin momentum can be explained by three overlapping factors: a compliant regulatory channel, a short-squeeze, and sector rotation. If you break it down, you can see where the variables still lie.
1. Grayscale ETF: Privacy coins first enter Wall Street

In the early morning of September 7, the Bitcoin sidechain Liquid Network reported a security incident: about 4,000 BTC (roughly $320 million) were moved from a federation wallet, accounting for about 95% of its reported reserves. The wallet balance dropped from about 4,200 BTC to 197 BTC. Deposits and withdrawals of LBTC (Liquid’s Bitcoin-backed token) have been suspended by multiple exchanges, and there is no timetable for when the sidechain will resume. BTC is latest reported at $80,245 (September 7, 08:40, Binance binance.bh pricing, +0.40% over 24 hours).
1. How the incident happened
On the evening of September 6 Beijing time, two transfers moved funds off the main chain: the first 2.5 BTC was confirmed around 22:01 (block 965780), and 27 minutes later the second 3,995.99999857 BTC arrived. The two transfers totaled about 3,998.5 BTC into the same address. The address now holds about 3,998.5 BTC, worth roughly $320 million at an exchange rate of $80,000.

Quick overview
Around 15:00 Beijing time on 9/6, BTC was quoted at about $79,778 (TokenPost Market snapshot). It briefly rose to 80,200 in early trading before pulling back, with the $80,000 round level repeatedly contested by bulls and bears; ETH was quoted at about $2,506 and was relatively stronger on the day (TokenPost Market 9/6 snapshot).
The next round’s direction will be determined by data: U.S. August CPI will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on 9/11; the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting is set for 9/15-16, with the decision to be announced at 02:00 Beijing time on 9/17, alongside updates to the dot plot and economic projections.
Market pricing for a September rate hike has swung back and forth over the past week: after Jackson Hole it briefly rose to about 70%, then fell to around 50% after Waller’s remarks, and after the stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls on 9/4 it climbed back to around 58% (CME FedWatch, based on various reports). Before the event is resolved, there is no definitive direction; position management matters more than prediction.

ETH is stuck near $2,450, with a pair of liquidation-heavy zones pressing from above and below. CoinGlass data shows: if ETH breaks above $2,567, the cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs will reach $1.624 billion; if it falls below $2,339, the cumulative long liquidation intensity is only $546 million. The positioning on both sides is clearly asymmetric. The article was written on September 5 (Beijing time), and the price is a time-specific snapshot.
1. Liquidation map: shorts have stacked about 3 times more positions above
ChainCatcher 9/5 cites CoinGlass data (snapshot around Beijing time at dawn): when ETH rises above 2,567, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major centralized exchanges is about $1.624 billion; when it falls below 2,339, the cumulative long liquidation intensity is about $546 million. The short-side density above is roughly 3 times the long-side density below. Liquidation intensity refers to "the cumulative position size that may be forcibly liquidated when the price reaches that level," not a guarantee that a cascade will occur, but the distribution of positions determines the direction of the instantaneous order-book imbalance after it is triggered. Liquidation-heavy zones also have a behavioral characteristic: as price approaches, traders will proactively reduce positions or hedge in advance, so these zones can be either fuel after a breakout or a friction zone before it; the two paths cannot be distinguished before the trigger. This chart is not static either: the version circulating on 9/2 showed 2,533 on the upside corresponding to $694 million in short liquidations, and 2,307 on the downside corresponding to $1.098 billion in long liquidations (ChainCatcher's wording reposted from a Binance Square post); the version on 8/26 was 2,576/2,333. Over ten days, the liquidation layers shifted twice, indicating that position turnover in ETH's 2,300-2,600 range has been very frequent, and the fuel released after a directional trigger is greater than it appears.

Bitcoin fell back below $80,000 on Friday, while ETF funds posted a net inflow of $175 million on the same day. SoSoValue data shows that on September 4 (US Eastern Time), U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for the third consecutive trading day, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing $117 million in a single day. In the same week, Hargreaves Lansdown, the UK’s largest retail platform, opened access to 9 Bitcoin and Ethereum ETNs for its 2 million customers. Price and capital flows showed a rare divergence. The article was written on September 5 (Beijing time), and the price is a time-specific snapshot.
1. Price down, ETFs in: the divergence on nonfarm payrolls day

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX)'s third batch of restricted shares will be unlocked on September 9, with about 319 million employee-held shares becoming eligible for trading; in the same week, Oppenheimer raised its target price from $250 to $280. SPCX surged on heavy volume on September 3, once touching about $151 intraday, a three-month high. As supply is released and institutions raise their targets at the same time, the tokenized version SPCXB on Binance is currently around $148.6. The article was written on September 5 (Beijing time), and the prices are time-specific snapshots.
1. The 9/9 unlock ranks third in SpaceX's post-IPO unlock schedule

August’s nonfarm payrolls flipped Federal Reserve pricing for a September rate cut overnight. New jobs came in at 162,000, far above the market expectation of only 56,000. The previous reading was revised up from -23,000 to +21,000, and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Once the data hit, gold plunged more than $70 intraday and broke below 4,400; the 2-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since January 2025; BTC fell from above 81,000 to 78,649, giving back most of the prior day’s rebound. This article was written on the morning of September 5 (Beijing time), and all prices are time-stamped snapshots.
1. Where was the nonfarm payrolls shock point?

A dovish remark by Federal Reserve Governor Waller helped gold recoup its sharp early-September drop within two days: spot gold’s intraday high reached $4,510.97, and the December futures gold contract closed up 2.8% and reclaimed $4,540. At the same time, the U.S. dollar fell to a one-week low, and BTC returned to 81,000. After gold regained the $4,500 level, Societe Generale turned bullish, while Goldman Sachs maintained its $4,900 target. The article was written in the early hours of September 4; the prices are time-stamped snapshots, and differences in source-reported figures are explained at the end of the piece.
1. Market performance: first a sharp 6.7% drop within a week, then recovery of $4,500 over the next two days
First look at the swings in the first week of September. Gold prices rose from late July’s 4,041 to an intraday high of $4,697.07 on August 25 (as reported by China News/China Fortune on the Tonghuashun data feed, the highest since mid-May). Then, before the PCE release and remarks at Jackson Hole, investors took profits. On August 26, the COMEX gold futures settled down 0.99% at $4,647.80 (as reported by The Daily Economic News). On August 28, gold fell sharply again, pulling back to around $4,400 (as reported by Insight Research). Gate News (8/31) described this round of adjustment as “a 6.7% plunge in gold.” Gold tokens moved in tandem: on September 1, Gate’s trading data showed PAXG at 4,387.24 (-1.53%) and XAUT at 4,379 (-1.54%).

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that if inflation data continues to improve, he would support keeping interest rates unchanged in September. This statement sparked an overnight rebound in the crypto market: BTC surged from around 77,000 to 82,000, with the 24-hour gain briefly exceeding 6%, and more than $415 million worth of short positions across the market were liquidated. The article was written in the early morning of September 4. The August Non-Farm Payrolls to be released tonight at 20:30 is the first checkpoint to test this round of rebound.
1. Market: For the first time in five months, it has returned above 81,000
September 4, multiple time-point snapshots in Beijing time: CoinMarketCap reports BTC at 81,238 at 06:40 (24-hour +5.33%); TokenPost Research reports 81,173 at 07:20 (+5.41%), and says this is the first time it has returned to above 81,000 since May; BlockBeats reports that at 07:34 it is reporting 81,100 (+5.19%) for HTX market sentiment. Around 05:34, BTC broke through 82,000 (Sina Finance 7x24 live, up 6.03% today).

September 2: Across the whole market, total 24-hour liquidations were about $370 million. More than 90,000 leveraged traders were liquidated, with XRP, ETH, and SOL leading the declines. However, BTC held steady above 77,000. In the same week, MicroStrategy disclosed the end of an approximately 10-week blackout and resumed buying 4,603 BTC. On the spot side, accumulation is underway; on the leverage side, positions are being cleaned up. Tomorrow at 20:30, the Non-Farm Payrolls is the decisive moment.
1. Market: BTC is holding up, ETH is clearly underperforming
September 3, morning multi-source snapshot (Beijing time): CoinMarketCap reported BTC at 77,003 (24-hour -0.11%) at 07:30; Gate Research reported BTC at 77,336, with a 7-day cumulative return of -2.14%, and an intraday high of 77,791; Korea’s Upbit reported morning volumes of about 106.2 million KRW (24-hour -0.70%). ETH is weaker: Square quotes around 2,389.74 (-1.21%), with a narrow range around 2,385 in the morning; as of the time of posting, it is still trading below 2,400.

After the U.S. military resumed airstrikes targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), BTC fell over two days from above 79.5k to around 77k. During the session it briefly approached 76.5k, setting a ten-day low. Ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls report on September 4, risk assets were held back by both geopolitics and interest rates at the same time.
I. Market: Reversed about 3% from the August high
September 2 multi-source snapshot (Beijing time): TokenPost at 15:57 reported BTC at 77,444 (-1.48% over 24 hours) and ETH at 2,419 (-2.12%); Caixin at 16:46 reported ETH falling below 2,400 to 2,394.63 (-2.4%); Investing.com’s aggregated quotes around 19:00 showed BTC at 77,004 (-1.46%) and ETH at 2,387 (-2.92%). Different sources have timing differences, but the range assessment is consistent: BTC’s intraday low is around 76,350–76,600 (a ten-day low). Compared with the early-August high of about 79,500, it has retraced by roughly 3%. The gains of about 25% for August still remain largely intact; this current pullback is, for now, a correction within an uptrend.

BTC fell below $77,000 last night and has been consolidating near $77,374 this morning. It is down 1.84% over the past 24 hours. The trigger is not crypto-specific; it is the global bond market: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen to the highest level since 1996. Global long-term bond yields have hit a new peak since 2008, putting collective pressure on risk assets. The next gate is the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on September 4.
1. Market update: gains from August begin to unwind
Around 08:20 a.m. Beijing time on September 2, Binance USDT market data shows BTC at $77,374. Over the past 24 hours, it is down 1.84%. The intraday low is 76,420 and the high is 79,220. Total trading volume over 24 hours is about $1.1 billion. ETH is at $2,419, down 2.26% over the past 24 hours, with an intraday low of $2,383 and a failure to hold the $2,400 whole-number level. Compared with the late-August peak around 79,500, BTC has pulled back by about 2.7% over the past two days; however, for the entire month of August, BTC still recorded roughly a 25% gain, and the current retracement remains limited.

SPCXB regained the $144 level today, up 2.4% over the past 24 hours. Binance bStocks tokenized stocks have grown from 5 in June to more than 46. Assets under management have surpassed $500 million. The South Korean Ministry of Economy and Finance has already stated: tokenized stocks will be taxed as securities, with the earliest implementation targeted for the second half of this year. The tax-free window is closing.
1. Market update: SPCXB leads the broader market
On September 1 at around 14:50 PM (Beijing time), Binance’s USDT market data shows SPCXB at $143.96, up 2.40% over the past 24 hours. The intraday high is $144.06, and the 24-hour trading volume is approximately $10.44 million. Compared with the historical high of $224.70 set on June 16, it is still down about 36%. During the same period, BTC is at $78,840 (+1.01%) and ETH is at $2,475 (+1.40%). SPCXB has outperformed major coins and is today’s leading example in the tokenized stock sector.

BTC returns overnight to 79,000: August closing day—monthly line about +24%, Fear and Greed Index 69—nonfarm week begins. Will 79,500 hold?
In the early hours of August 31, BTC steadily rebounded from a low of $77,855 and reclaimed 79,000. Gate quotes 79,000 at 00:05 (24h +1.4%); Foresight reports Bitget at 79,005 (+0.98%); during the early trading session it once touched 79,387 (Bitget Insights 8/31 timeframe). Today is the last trading day of August, with the month’s close and nonfarm week arriving simultaneously.
I. Overnight Market Overview and August Closing
BTC this week’s path: On 8/25, during intraday trading, it once surged above 81,000; after the hawkish shift following the 8/28 Jackson Hole speech, it pulled back to 76,871. By the weekend, it stabilized between 77,100-77,800, and in the early hours of 8/31 it rose again to stand above 79,000-79,400. According to convextrade statistics, in August BTC’s monthly line is expected to close up about 24.46% (62,816.6→78,184.3; the final closing will be confirmed as of today). The Fear and Greed Index is 69, staying in the “Greed” range (TokenPost 8/30-31 timeframe). Over the past 24 hours, liquidations rebounded from about $30 million at the weekend to $107 million (TokenPost 8/31 04:55 KST timeframe), and volatility before Monday’s open was amplified. In early August, BTC was around $64,000; the monthly high was $81,281-$81,500. August is a candidate for the strongest month of the year (investing.com 8/28 timeframe). A CryptoQuant analyst said that BTC’s weekly realized market cap increased by about $4.6 billion over 24 hours, with new capital inflows supporting the uptrend (Gate 8/30 timeframe). aicoin analysis suggests that the main support band for BTC realized price distribution is $62,000-$67,000 (8/30 personal analysis timeframe).