September 8 at 21:36, Binance BH headline: BTC is reported at $77,914, down 1.89% over the past 24 hours. The intraday range is $77,900–$79,485. Trading volume over the past 24 hours is about $1.38 billion; ETH is at $2,449 (-2.03%), BNB at $745 (-0.19%), and ZEC at $1,144 (-3.07%). For BTC, the 4-hour chart from today 08:00 Beijing time has printed four consecutive declining periods: 78,906 → 78,482 → 78,430 → 77,908, with the current price trading right along the intraday low. The market has handed the direction choice to the CPI on September 11 and the FOMC on September 15–16.

1. What is happening on the board

BTC hit 80,560 again on September 6. The weekend battle for the 80k level only lasted a day. After a failed rebound at 79,485 on the morning of September 8, price slid steadily lower; at 21:36, 77,914 has moved to just one step from today’s low of 77,800. On the daily chart, this pullback is testing the lower edge of the consolidation box that has been in place since late August: the lows of September 1–2 at 76,420–76,264 were the launch platform for this rally. The August 30 full-number close at 77,000 was an important support. On September 3, BTC turned around from 76,968 with a surge back to 81,270, completing the most recent reversal.

In terms of time structure, the decline comes in two waves: first, after an attempted rebound to 79,485 during the Asian session fails, price drops to around 78,200. Then during the Europe/US session it continues lower; the 4-hour candle low at 20:00 is 77,881. The current price at 21:36 is 77,914, only one step away from the daily low. If the US session cannot reclaim above 78,000, the daily chart will most likely close in the lowest closing area since September 1. This technical fact matters more than any opinion.

Leverage is overwhelmingly positioned one way. Based on CoinGlass data (TokenPost cutoff at 15:00 on September 8), over the past 24 hours, the top 20 coins by liquidation volume totaled $127 million in liquidations, including $104.19 million in long liquidations (81.89%) and only $23.04 million in short liquidations. For BTC specifically, liquidations were $54.37 million, with longs accounting for 92%; ETH liquidations were $26.54 million, with longs accounting for 74%; ZEC liquidations were $11.94 million, with longs accounting for 83%. This pullback mainly cleans out leveraged long positions that had been betting on continued upside. Spot trading activity also increased in tandem, which indicates real sell pressure.

II. The macro driving force behind the drop

The spark was the August jobs report released on September 4: new employment added 162,000, far above expectations. The implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the FOMC on September 16 rose to 58%–60% (CME FedWatch measure). CoinShares’ weekly report (as of September 4) shows that digital asset investment products saw a net outflow of $726 million in one week: BTC outflow of $643 million and ETH outflow of $98 million. Strangely, products shorting BTC actually saw an inflow of $3.9 million. The outflow scale was close to the record set in March this year (Followin, reported on September 8).

External pressure also hit in sync: global oil prices all rose by more than 1%; Iran announced a new type of missile; risk-aversion sentiment warmed up. Over three trading days, the Japanese yen strengthened from 160.39 to 154.50 (up about 3.7%), and concerns about unwinding carry trades suppressed global risk assets. The US market was closed for Labor Day on September 7, and low liquidity amplified one-direction volatility in the crypto market.

There’s also a set of opposing forces inside the macro picture: Zhitong Finance reported on September 7 that the Federal Reserve maintained high interest rates and stopped injecting funds into the market, while the US Treasury, through large-scale share buybacks, injected liquidity in the opposite direction. Both opposite policy directions are simultaneously acting on risk assets. In the crypto market, this helps explain why BTC fell more cautiously when rate-hike expectations heated up. Below 80k, buy orders appeared repeatedly; before data was finalized, both longs and shorts didn’t dare to fully load positions.

Next comes a dense data week: September 10’s ECB rate decision; September 11’s US August CPI release (market expectation is about 3.4% year-on-year, and it comes in the evening Beijing time); and on September 15–16, the FOMC meeting with an updated dot plot. Until the rate-hike expectations are actually realized, funds tend to first compress valuations and then wait for data to provide the answer. Intra-day, it’s hard for impulses to escape a one-direction trend.

III. The levels that both longs and shorts are watching

Support below, in order: 77,800 (today’s low) → 77,000 (the August 30 low plus the integer level) → 76,420–76,264 (the September 1–2 lows). On September 6, B.TOP founder Jiang Zhuoer publicly stated that since the big surge on August 20, there hasn’t been a real correction. Around $76,000 there is a concentrated liquidation zone for BTC below; a pullback may first hit this level (ChainCatcher, relayed on September 6). This view turns 76,000–76,500 into the observation band with the highest consensus among market participants.

Resistance above is equally clear: 78,660 (the September 4 low; the first hurdle of today’s rebound) → 79,485 (today’s high) → 80,000–80,560 (the weekend high and the 80k psychological level). As long as BTC trades between 77,800 and 79,485, it counts as normal compression before an event. Only a breakout on either side is what can be considered directional.

ETH’s structure is simpler: the current price at 2,449 is hugging today’s low at 2,448. Support below is 2,432 (the September 4 low). Further down is the 2,400 integer level. Resistance above is 2,500–2,537 (the September 6 high). When there isn’t an independent ETH/BTC行情, ETH’s direction basically follows BTC, so trading ETH is not as good as directly tracking BTC’s breakout direction.

IV. Three condition-based方案 (personal opinion, not a trading instruction)

Plan A: Wait for the data as the default option—compare the odds before CPI and FOMC for heavily positioned or add-on leveraged trades. Spot positions with cost basis below 77,000 can be held to observe. For futures positions, the suggestion is to reduce to within one-third, and consider a rebound only if the 4-hour closing price recaptures above 78,660.

Plan B: Long trigger after the data—if on September 11 the CPI YoY is below 3.4%, or core inflation on a month-over-month basis falls back, and BTC’s 4-hour closing price comes back above 79,000, you can test a small long with a target of 80,000–80,560, and a stop-loss at 78,500. Invalid scenario: after the data is released, if price spikes but fails to get above 79,485 and then falls back, it indicates sell pressure is still present and longs should exit.

Plan C: Short conditions after a breakdown—if the 4-hour closing price drops below 77,800, follow through and look toward 76,500–76,264, with a stop-loss at 78,400. The execution premise is a breakout with volume; don’t set orders in advance. If price shows a volume-backed long lower wick between 77,000 and 76,500 and then reclaims, treat it as a wick/pin insertion signal; exit shorts and don’t chase deep downside below 76,000.

Shared prerequisite: key price levels come from the daily chart structure and personal estimation, and they can become invalid as liquidity changes. At the moment, the share of long positions liquidated is high; a breakdown to the downside can trigger chain liquidations. On the upside, a rebound can likewise come with short-covering. Volatility can amplify at both ends. Any plan is executed only after the corresponding trigger conditions appear; if conditions aren’t met, stay flat.

Position discipline, stated separately: control loss per trade to within 1%–2% of the account. All three plans share the same risk budget for the same trade. Putting stop-losses near psychological levels before data is released is meaningless—pin wicks will sweep them first and then follow direction. Stop-loss levels should be placed outside the key level rather than at the level itself. If you can’t monitor intraday, use an observation spot position instead of a futures position; the trade-off is you only miss part of the rebound’s volatility.

V. Risk warning

During the dense data week, CPI, the dot plot, and any remarks by Fed officials can cause 2%–3% level single-day volatility. Liquidation data is based on CoinGlass’s top 20 coin measure, and fund flows follow CoinShares’ weekly report measure; statistics differ across institutions. The price snapshot is at 21:36 on September 8 and can change anytime after publication. The yen, oil prices, and geopolitical events are variables outside the data—don’t treat the news as the basis for investment.

Summary: BTC is currently in a “rate-hike expectation repricing + data vacuum” compression phase. 77,800 is the last line of defense for longs, while 76,000–76,500 is the target band with consensus for shorts. The first key to direction is September 11’s CPI; the second is the FOMC dot plot. Will you wait for a pullback around 76,000, or wait for CPI to land before acting? Let’s discuss in the comments.

Reference sources: Binance market data (9/8 21:36 snapshot, accessed via this local proxy: binance.bh); CoinGlass data as reported by TokenPost on 9/8; CoinShares weekly report as relayed by Followin on 9/8; CME FedWatch rate-hike probability as reported by TokenPost/Gate Square; CPI expectations and schedule via Gate Square (Yang Guang bit, 9/8); Jiang Zhuoer’s viewpoint as relayed by ChainCatcher on 9/6.

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#比特币 #BTC #CPI #美联储 #cryptocurrency market

The above content does not constitute investment advice