Daft Punk–不是反指版

Hilarious—those old brothers who are still stubbornly holding long positions at $SPCX . I genuinely can’t believe it. You rushed in when the IPO was $135, it went up to $225 but you wouldn’t sell, and now it’s down to $110—you’re still there talking about “long-termism” and “Mars faith.” Can faith fill your stomach? Can a tweet from Musk make your account recover?

Look at this chart. It’s only been a little over a month since listing, and it’s been cut in half straight from $225. Short positions have piled up to 32% of the float. And there’s $25.0 billion worth of “ammo” blasting right in your face, yet you’re still there “buying the dip” and “adding to your position.” When the lockup expiration wave hits on August 6, 900 million shares will directly dump onto the market—that’s $116.0 billion of sell pressure. How do you expect to catch all that? The float is less than 5%—if any major shareholder wants to cash out, the stock price basically falls freely.

Even if Musk comes, it won’t help. I’ll tell you: even if Musk really shows up, it still won’t help. This stock is valued at over 100x sales and has been losing money consistently. ROE is -33%. The valuation is propped up entirely by the “space + AI” story. Once the story ends, where’s the money?

Starlink does make money, but can it support this big family—rockets, AI, and Twitter? What came out of that $60 billion Cursor acquisition deal? What’s the integration actually produced?

I’ll be blunt: SPCX will hit double digits. Under $100 is basically a lock. My short position is already maxed out, and I’ve got plenty of leverage. This lockup expiration wave is when I get rich. You longs keep chanting your mantras—I’ll keep counting my money. Later, when SPCX drops to $80 or $90, don’t blame me—I warned you. This isn’t Tesla—there’s no retail crowd saving the day. Only institutions dumping.

Musk? If he comes, he’ll end up crying too.

LOL, even the neighbor’s withdrawal feature costs money to purchase. It’s trash.

Why is Dogecoin’s logo a Shiba Inu?

This story is pretty funny. Dogecoin wasn’t a “real” project at all in the beginning.

Back in 2013, when Bitcoin was just starting to blow up online, two programmers—Jackson Palmer and Billy Markus—noticed that the crypto community was getting more and more serious and self-important. So they decided to pull a prank: how about making a coin that’s about as unlikely to succeed as possible to mock the whole industry?

So what should they use as a mascot? At the time, a meme called “Doge” was really popular—an image of a Shiba Inu, paired with multicolored Comic Sans text, full of various inner monologues like “so wow,” “much amaze,” “very scare,” and the like. That Shiba Inu is named Kabosu. It was a stray dog adopted by a kindergarten teacher in Japan. The photo, combined with awkward English, is oddly amusing—and 2013 was exactly when this meme was at peak popularity.

So the two of them simply took the meme and turned it into the coin’s logo. The name is $DOGE , and the icon is that famous Shiba Inu’s side profile. They even called mining “digging” and wallets “dogehouse.” From the inside out, the whole project gives off this vibe of: “I’m here to be funny.”

But the most ironic part is that what started as a joke coin meant to mock the crypto world actually became popular beyond expectations. Because the Shiba Inu image is so relatable and down-to-earth, and the community atmosphere is especially friendly, it somehow “broke out” into the mainstream. People look at other coins and see cold, icy tech vibes—while Dogecoin feels like that dumb-but-adorable dog from downstairs at your place: low barrier, no pretension. Tips and charity fundraising are even done using it.

So why a Shiba Inu? At first it was purely a meme—yet this Shiba Inu somehow managed to carry a joke into a “serious” cryptocurrency with a market value in the billions. Sometimes the world is just that absurd: the things you take seriously get ignored, but the jokes you make turn into something big.

The market doesn’t seem satisfied with this report for $SPCX . Let’s see what happens with the upcoming unlocks—are the shareholders happy or not?

Seeing guys shout "takeoff" after a 5% pump before the $SPCX earnings report really makes you laugh and cry at the same time. Do you only understand candlestick colors, but not the lockup calendar?

Currently, 95% of SPCX's shares are still held by insiders and employees, and the float is only a pitiful 4-5%. The recent rally is purely driven by the low float plus sentiment speculation, and has nothing to do with fundamentals. The Q2 earnings window is just days away, and the first batch of 20% locked-up shares (about 920 million shares) is about to be unlocked. If the stock stays above 175.50, there is also an extra 10% reward unlock. The current price is 121, not even back to the IPO price of 135. Although the unlock condition won't trigger that extra 10%, the 20% selling pressure is very real.

Even funnier, this is only the appetizer. From August to October, another 7% of shares will be released every two weeks. After Q3 earnings, there will still be about 1.3 billion shares (28%) unlocking in one massive wave, and the 180-day lockup will fully expire on December 8. By next June, Musk's 640 million shares, nearly half of the company, will also enter the market. The pressure on the supply side is sustained and huge, and what is left on the demand side besides "faith"?

The 30-day drop is -24.69%, and the 90-day drop is nearly -25%; the trend is already crystal clear. This little pre-earnings pump is just giving shorts a better entry point. I'm keeping my short position, targeting a move into the double digits. When this batch of unlocks hits the market, the guys chasing the rally now will know what "takeoff" really means—except it's the kind of takeoff that is straight free fall downward.

ISM hits a new four-and-a-half-year high, yet U.S. Treasury yields still “chickened out”? Crypto folks can’t stop laughing

The latest U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI seems like it’s been injected with steroids—jumping straight to 55.6, the highest level in more than four years. Factory bosses are so busy their feet barely touch the ground: new orders and production indexes are all flashing red. Even employment is starting to warm up. Logically, with this “the U.S. economy is insanely strong” storyline, U.S. Treasury yields should be strutting upward—because when the economy overheats, wouldn’t the Fed have to stay hawkish?

So what happened instead? U.S. Treasury yields flipped and just went, “I’m falling.” Even Wall Street’s veteran grizzled weeds were left stunned by this performance.

The truth is, this batch of traders was trained long ago to be “split-brain” specialists. The better the ISM data looks, the more they think: oh no, the economy is too strong—so inflation is likely to swing back, and if the Fed keeps jawing tough, it will have to break the economy. As a result, rate-cut expectations actually heat up. Money then barrels into Treasuries, mechanically pushing yields down. On top of that, the Middle East—U.S.-Iran peace talks can collapse at the drop of a hat. Oil prices then shoot up three feet, and risk-averse capital also rushes to Treasuries, the “global safe-haven” for a quick seat on the bus. Sure, the economy is strong, but what the market is betting on is: “Your Fed will eventually loosen.”

And speaking of it, crypto homies are way too familiar with this—doesn’t this pretty much sound like our daily routine? Good news runs out and turns into bad news. Bad news runs out and turns into good news. It’s all about “managing your expectations about expectations.” The slide in Treasury yields made Bitcoin perk up on the spot. For crypto markets, Treasury yields are basically the “global liquidity faucet” valve: when the valve is turned down, risk assets feel bold enough to climb. $BTC and $ETH —these “silly nonsense risk-asset kings”—are more afraid of the dollar being too expensive and interest rates being too high than they are of a weak economy. Now that Treasury yields are acting timid, the crypto crowd immediately starts fantasizing about a “rate-cut bull market.”

But then again, with ISM this strong, can the Fed really claim it doesn’t care—while secretly not panicking? Crypto folks, don’t rush into FOMO. This market is like your ex’s朋友圈—looks like it’s about to reconcile, but who knows, the next second they might block you.

Trump family’s crypto-mining company keeps buying more BTC despite losses still rising by $BTC : Is this “faith top-ups” or “political economy”?

Recently, the crypto world came out with a piece of news that’s both ridiculous and funny: a mining company owned by the Trump family is clearly losing money, yet it’s still aggressively accumulating Bitcoin. It’s like that milk tea shop downstairs that’s always packed— the owner cries about how “we’re losing so badly it hurts,” yet secretly buys another ten tons of pearls. So, is he just really that naive, or is there more going on?

First, let’s talk about the mining company’s situation. In mining, electricity costs are a major chunk, and Bitcoin’s price swings are like a roller coaster. The mining rigs roar along, the power meter zips away, and in the end the coins mined aren’t worth as much as the electricity bill. Even an elementary-school math teacher would shake their head at that accounting. But the Trump family doesn’t seem to care. Losses? That doesn’t exist—that’s “strategic investment”!

Now, consider what they’re doing with their BTC purchases. In the crypto market, there’s a kind of faith called “buy more when it’s falling,” and there’s a kind of courage called “others are afraid, I’m greedy.” But what the Trump family is doing clearly goes beyond that— they might be playing “political economy.” Take a closer look: Trump’s attitude toward the crypto market has swung from “Bitcoin is a scam” to “I want to make the United States a crypto superpower.” That 180-degree turnaround—could there be a “warm reminder” from a family business behind it? The mining company mines while stockpiling coins; one day, when a favorable policy breeze blows, the loss report can instantly become a success-story case of “early positioning.”

In plain terms, this might be a high-stakes gamble: “turning losses into chips.” In the crypto world, some people make money through technology, some through information, and the Trump family may be demonstrating how to profit through “expectation management.” After all, in crypto markets, what’s most valuable is never Bitcoin itself, but the story that “Bitcoin will go up.” As long as people still believe that story, losses are only temporary. As long as the policy wind is still blowing in their favor, adding more is “patriotic behavior.”

So, fellow crypto folks—next time you see your holdings go green or turn red, you might want to learn from the Trump family’s mindset: losses? That’s proof of faith! Add more? That’s a display of big-picture thinking! As for whether they’ll be the ones laughing last—anyway, their mining rigs are already running, so what about yours?

The Fed people have really been making quite a commotion lately.

The market had been betting that rate cuts would happen this year. But recently, several Fed officials suddenly turned hawkish. Some even hinted that if inflation rebounds, they wouldn’t rule out raising rates again. Wow—going from cuts to hikes, the storyline has flipped faster than a crypto candlestick chart.

So where exactly is the disagreement?

One side is the “dovish good guys,” thinking the economy has already shown signs of cooling and that it’s time to ease—cut rates sooner to keep the market alive. The other side is the “hardline hawks,” watching closely because core inflation hasn’t returned to the 2% target. They’re afraid that once they loosen their grip, prices will take off again. Each side makes its own case, leaving the market utterly confused.

Crypto gets “collateral damage”

Everyone knows the crypto market is most sensitive to interest rates. When rate-cut expectations are strong, Bitcoin can surge, because cheaper money tends to flow—at least in part—into high-risk assets. But with the Fed stirring things up internally, the market starts repricing: 10-year U.S. Treasury yields jump higher, and the U.S. dollar index strengthens too. Right away, $BTC drops from around the $70,000 area.

Even more importantly, this kind of “policy uncertainty” is exactly what crypto fears the most. Cryptocurrency has no fundamentals backed by steady cash flow—it relies mainly on market sentiment and expectations for liquidity. If the Fed says “east” today and “west” tomorrow, institutions are even less willing to move in aggressively, and retail investors can only stare at the candlesticks.

Let’s be real

Now isn’t the time to guess whether the Fed will cut rates. Instead, we need to accept a reality: a high-interest-rate environment may last longer than we think. For crypto investors, rather than gambling on a policy turnaround, it’s better to focus on underlying narratives that aren’t driven by interest rates—for example, ETF fund flows and post-halving supply-and-demand changes. Those are the things that truly move coin prices.

The Fed can bicker—we keep our eyes on our wallets.

This time, Japan and the U.S. have teamed up to "rescue the yen"—and the move could be anything but small. On August 3, Japan’s Finance Minister Aso Takayuki and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent both confirmed that on July 31 the two countries jointly stepped in to buy the yen and sell the U.S. dollar, pulling the exchange rate back from the abyss of 163 to around 156. This was the first coordinated intervention in 15 years. The last time dates back to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake.

Put simply, the yen has been dropping far too hard. By the end of July, it once neared 164, hitting its lowest level in nearly 40 years. Domestic inflation and import costs in Japan have been surging, and the government simply couldn’t sit still. More importantly, Japan is the largest creditor of the U.S.; it holds more than $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. If Japan were to tough it out on its own—selling U.S. Treasuries to buy dollars in order to intervene—U.S. Treasury yields would likely skyrocket, and the U.S. would also be unable to tolerate it. So this time, the U.S. stepped in to cooperate directly. In essence, it’s “saving the yen is also saving U.S. Treasuries.”

So what does this mean for the crypto market? In the short term, with the U.S. dollar being sold off and the yen flowing back, the global liquidity environment may undergo a subtle shift. The Japan-U.S. joint action signals to the market that authorities will not allow disorderly exchange-rate fluctuations. That could keep previously unwinding “carry trades” that borrowed yen to buy dollar-denominated assets. After some funds pull out of traditional markets, it’s not out of the question that they may flow into crypto assets as a hedge—such as Bitcoin. Also, as long as the dollar weakens, $BTC typically would get some breathing room. However, be careful: government-level joint intervention often points to significant stress in the traditional financial system, and short-term volatility could increase. All in all, this Japan-U.S. move isn’t just an FX story—crypto folks also need to keep an eye on it. As central banks begin to coordinate, the market’s rules of the game may be changing again.

South Korea stocks have crashed again—KOSPI plunged more than 5% in a single day. Samsung and SK hynix both sank over 8%. This scene is so familiar it couldn’t be more familiar. In plain terms, the Korean stock market is basically a “semiconductor sector index” right now: the two giants account for more than half the index weight. When they catch a cold, the whole market catches one.

On the memory chips front, bullish and bearish signals are locked in a fierce standoff. The bulls are holding an ace up their sleeve—AI compute demand. HBM and DRAM are in short supply; Micron’s gross margin has climbed to 84%+; SK hynix’s highest year-to-date surge is nearly threefold; and the outlook certainly looks hardcore. But the bears aren’t helpless either: terminal demand pressure has already hit the ceiling. Apple and Microsoft have been forced to raise prices one after another. If consumers don’t buy in and sales slip, upstream memory manufacturers will inevitably be hit back. Add to that ChangXin Memory’s IPO surge and China’s push for DUV localization, and the “exclusive access” advantage of Korean companies is being eroded—prompting funds to cash out and escape early.

More troubling is the leveraged retail-trading game in South Korea. Earlier in the year, individual-stock 2x leveraged ETFs rolled out and trapped a large number of retail “ants” on top of the hill. The selloff triggered a chain of forced liquidations, plunging the market into a deadly spiral: “decline—deleveraging—another decline.” This kind of volatility simply can’t be explained by fundamentals.

As for the crypto market, this round of massive turmoil in Korean stocks and the crypto space actually follows the same risk logic. When global funds start to doubt overpriced tech assets, money tends to retreat first from the highest-risk areas—whether that’s leveraged ETFs in Korean equities or leveraged positions in crypto contracts. Recently, $BTC occasionally strengthened against the trend during tech stock selloffs, suggesting some capital is searching for “risk exits outside tech stocks.” But don’t get too excited: if global liquidity truly tightens and risk-aversion sentiment surges across the board, crypto will also be hard-pressed to stay immune. Memory bulls and bears haven’t settled the score yet—the winter for risk assets may just be getting started.

Coldcard "the fourth wave" is here again—are your hardware wallets still safe?

Brothers, the "black swan" in the world of hardware wallets is still flying.

Alex Thorn from Galaxy Research just issued a warning: Coldcard’s fourth-wave attack may already be underway. 462 addresses, and more than 380 $BTC numbers, were swept away across dozens of blocks—at a speed 45 times the normal level. Combined with the first three waves, the total loss has already jumped to 1,367 BTC, roughly $88.6 million—these numbers are “big news” even in any DeFi protocol hack.

What’s even more painful is that this time it’s not phishing, and it’s not a private key leak—it's Coldcard’s own firmware burying the “landmines.” Simply put: certain older firmware versions “crippled” the hardware random number generator (RNG) when generating seeds, replacing it with a predictable software-based alternative. In theory, your private keys never left the device—but attackers can calculate them using public information. What’s the difference from writing your password on the front of your head?

This doesn’t only affect ancient devices. Mk3, Mk4, Mk5, and even the Q series—if the firmware version isn’t new enough, they could be hit. Coldcard has urgently halted production and destroyed the problematic inventory, but updating the firmware can’t fix weak seeds that were already generated. You must regenerate new seeds and move your funds, otherwise you’re just waiting to be “harvested.”

For the crypto market, the impact goes far beyond a handful of victims. Even CZ stepped in to warn people about hardware wallet risks. Bitcoin’s price itself hasn’t crashed, but the banner of “self-custody” has been torn with a hole through it. Many people hoarded coins for years, only to fall at the most trusted “cold storage”—the psychological blow is arguably worse than the financial loss.

In the long run, this may drive multi-sig plus multiple vendors to become standard for big players. But for ordinary users, the lesson is simple: don’t trust any single device, and don’t get lazy about updating. Your coins are on-chain, but security is in your hands— or rather, in the entropy your “dice” roll produces.

Right now, there are a bunch of people in the market shouting, “Tomorrow’s earnings report will be an extremely bullish catalyst,” but almost nobody talks about the nuclear-level unlock coming on August 6.

Let’s start with the earnings. This is SpaceX’s first quarterly report since it went public. The market expectations are indeed very high—Starlink user growth, revenue figures, progress on Starship—any one of these beating expectations could lift sentiment. But the issue is that the bullish expectations have already been “priced in,” and the stock price has already been cut in half from its high of $225 to around $110. That suggests the smart money has already been moving out.

The real “big weapon” is the staged unlocks. SpaceX’s float is only about 4%—the shares available are extremely scarce. That’s also why it was able to get pumped to over $200 earlier. But on the second trading day after the earnings report on August 6, the first batch—up to 911.5 million shares—will be unlocked. That’s equivalent to 1.43 times the current float.

Even more frightening: the early shareholders and employees have very low cost basis—many at around $20. At the current price of $110, they’re still sitting on gains of 5x or more. Put yourself in their shoes. If you’re a longtime SpaceX employee holding shares for years, and the company just went public, the stock has been cut in half, but your paper gains are still this rich—would you sell?

Also, SpaceX’s unlock design is “staged.” On August 6, 20% will be released first. After that, every 15 days there will be another small unlock of 7%. Then in October to November, the big move comes—another 28%—and it keeps going all the way to December. This means that over the next six months, the float will expand continuously from 4%, and the scarcity premium will be gradually squeezed out.

So my view is: even if tomorrow’s earnings look great, it’s very likely to be “bullish news that turns into bearish results.” The massive unlock on the 6th is the real stress test. Don’t rush to surge in the short term—let the “bullets fly” for a bit, and wait until the unlock selling pressure has been digested before reassessing.$SPCX

Is there a chance that the market value of $DOGE could exceed $SOL ?

To be honest, in the short term it will be extremely difficult for DOGE’s market cap to surpass SOL, but it’s not completely hopeless.

First, let’s look at the data: SOL’s market cap is currently around $42 billion, while DOGE is only about $11.8 billion—roughly a 3.5x gap. This divide is not just a little difference.

Why is it so hard? Because SOL now has a real, solid ecosystem. Its on-chain DEX trading volume has at times surpassed Ethereum, and its accumulated application revenues have exceeded $4 billion. Big companies like Visa and Meta have also been integrated. In other words, it’s a “serious work” public chain. What about DOGE? Fundamentally, it’s still a meme coin propped up mainly by community sentiment and Musk’s calls, with no smart contracts. On the technical level, it’s not even in the same dimension as SOL.

So why say it’s not entirely impossible? Because the crypto market is a place that talks a lot about emotions. DOGE has an extremely large community and strong liquidity. If it really catches up in a new round of mania—plus Musk pulls some big moves (for example, integrating payments with X)—DOGE could multiply several times, and this has happened before. In 2021, its market cap even surged to nearly $90 billion. Conversely, if SOL experiences major technical issues or regulatory crackdowns, with the balance shifting the other way, a reversal is theoretically possible.

But from a rational perspective, the odds of DOGE consistently and stably staying above SOL’s market cap long-term are low. SOL has ongoing revenue and a developer ecosystem to support it, while DOGE mainly relies on “belief.” Unless the entire market enters an extreme speculative frenzy, DOGE’s more likely to play the role of holding up better in bear markets and rising with the bull market. To truly “come back” and become the top player, what it lacks isn’t just sentiment—it’s real, practical use cases.$DOGE

Does the Shanzhai season start with Dogecoin? Don’t be ridiculous—though it’s not totally hopeless either.

Fellow old crypto-seasoned weeds, have you recently been woken up again by Dogecoin’s “woof-woof”?

In May 2026, the Dogecoin ETF finally ended its awkward streak of “zero inflows,” bringing in $400,000 in capital flows. Don’t think that number is that impressive—it’s still probably not higher than the daily revenue of the bubble-tea shop downstairs—but it’s the first time money has come in since April 27! And Dogecoin’s price “woofed” right along with it: up nearly 10% in the month, with a spring cumulative gain of 25%, charging toward the 200-day moving average around $0.124.

So the question is: can Dogecoin blow the horn for the Shanzhai season?

My answer is: it can, but only “woof” a little.

Look, the current Shanzhai coin season index is only 51; it’s still far from the true Shanzhai threshold of 75—just like you’re still one Bitcoin away from financial freedom. Bitcoin dominance is still as high as 58.8%, and big funds are still not willing to leave the “big pie.”

But history tells us that Meme coins often act as the market’s “barometer.” When retail investors are bold enough to go for even Dogecoin, it means the hearts battered and riddled by the bear market are finally starting to get restless.

So the Shanzhai season in 2026 is unlikely to be a blanket “everything rises together” binge. More likely, it will be a structural, sector-based “mini Shanzhai season.” Dogecoin might just be an appetizer; the real feast will depend on higher-quality projects with real revenue, diversified holdings, and lower unlock pressure.

One-sentence summary: Dogecoin’s rise could be a “starter course” for the Shanzhai season, but don’t expect one Shiba Inu to carry a full Man-Han Imperial feast on its own. The true Shanzhai season will have to wait until Bitcoin “takes a breather,” and then funds will rush into various Shanzhai coins like refugees.

So don’t rush to go All In. Hold your chips and wait for the wind—after all, in crypto, patience is more valuable than going all-in.🐕$DOGE

US-Iran talks resume; oil prices “back off,” and the crypto market trembles

Recently, international affairs have yet another new plot twist— the United States and Iran have actually sat back down at the negotiating table. You know these two “old enemies” were previously all sharp swords and cold threats, locked in a standoff. Now that talks are on the table, the crude oil market immediately “changes its face.” Oil prices drop like a stone, giving back all the gains they had made earlier due to geopolitical tensions.

Why is oil so “thin-skinned”?

Put simply, the market fears uncertainty the most. Earlier, the situation in the Middle East was tense. Everyone worried that the Strait of Hormuz—the “world oil valve”—might be disrupted, and that boosted oil prices as risk-hedging sentiment pushed them higher. Now that the US and Iran are willing to talk, even if the talks ultimately don’t go through, the risk of a war in the near term is reduced. Naturally, oil prices “lose steam.” It’s like in class: if the two students who fight the most suddenly say, “Let’s talk it out,” the whole class can finally breathe easier.

So why is the crypto market making noise too?

Don’t think the coin world has nothing to do with oil prices. In reality, the relationship is subtle. On one hand, falling oil prices typically mean lower inflation pressure. That can cool down concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep hiking rates—good news for risk assets (including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others). With improved liquidity expectations, money is more willing to chase higher-risk opportunities.

But on the other hand, if oil prices fall too sharply, the market may start worrying whether the global economy is about to “fall off a cliff”—after all, it’s weak demand that drives oil prices down. Once this “economic recession” panic spreads, crypto markets often can’t escape the fate of being sold off. After all, the crypto space still has fairly high correlation with U.S. stocks. When the overall market shudders, crypto catches a chill too.

In short: the US-Iran negotiation saga, in the near term, acts like an oil price “pressure relief valve.” For crypto, though, it’s a double-edged sword—improving liquidity expectations are honey, while recession worries are poison. Next, keep an eye on the progress of the talks and the direction of oil prices—don’t just stare at the candlestick chart.

South Korean stocks have crashed again. Storage bulls and bears are fighting hot, and the crypto crowd has to shake too.

Today, the KOSPI in South Korea fell more than 5% again. The two storage champions—Samsung Electronics and SK hynix—led the plunge, and the market instantly went into chaos. To put it plainly, this is a head-on showdown between “AI faith” and “leverage liquidation.”

First, on the bearish side: South Korean stocks have already dropped nearly 40% from the June peak. On July 28 alone, they suffered a single-day rout of over 10%, triggering a circuit breaker—the eighth such event this year. The pace is even wilder than the 2008 financial crisis. Why? South Korean retail investors are getting too crazy: they bet heavily on SK hynix using leveraged ETFs. When the share price falls, it triggers a “drop → forced ETF selling → another drop” death spiral. On top of that, global institutions are starting to doubt whether the money behind AI can actually be made back. Even OpenAI’s IPO has been pushed to 2027. Are cloud providers’ AI infrastructure investments essentially “circular financing,” fooling themselves? Once that narrative breaks, the valuation logic for storage chips wobbles.

Now, on the bullish side: SK hynix’s second-quarter profit surged 557% year over year. HBM (high-bandwidth memory) remains in short supply, long-term contract orders are signed through 2030, and storage prices are still rising. Nomura has set a target price for SK hynix at 4.7 million won, which is 255% higher than the current price. The fundamentals are rock solid, but the stock price just won’t move—an archetypal “great results, falling stock” twisted market.

So what does this have to do with crypto? A lot. Tech stocks and crypto assets are, in essence, the same kind of “high-risk narrative asset”—when they’re rising, it’s all about the story; when they’re falling, it’s all about liquidity. When South Korean stocks crash and the Fed’s hawkish signal hits, global risk assets all start shivering together. Things like Bitcoin and Ethereum have an increasingly high correlation with the Nasdaq. When tech stocks collapse, the crypto space can’t expect to stay unaffected. Also, South Korea is one of the most active global markets for crypto trading. When retail investors there get liquidated on stock leverage, funds in the crypto market are very likely to be pulled back as well to top up margin.

In one sentence: the standoff between bulls and bears in storage chips looks, on the surface, like a battle between earnings and valuation—but at a deeper level, under tightening global liquidity, all high-risk assets are being repriced. This drama in South Korea is a warning to the crypto world: when the leverage party ends, even the stories can’t be enjoyed without considering the Fed’s mood. Be cautious in the short term, and don’t treat leverage like faith—just like South Korean retail investors did.

For high-quality industries, I still recommend setting up a hedging single to display earnings first, then take 20% profit sharing with the trader—extremely high profits. $BTC

The Life of a Happy Man $BTC

Crouching at the fence and crouching out hallucinations—this is 😂$BTC