Kenjisrealm
Sharing DeFi, NFT, RWA. blave Backer. Dived into Bridging Road, Bring Positive Impact to Community. Follow My Twitter: kenjisrealm
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03/24 ~ 03/30 Weekly Key Information Update
‘The Federal Reserve stabilizes market confidence, most investors are waiting for the uncertainty to resolve in April’
Figure 1, US TGA vs ONRRP
Last week, the FOMC once again released positive signals. The FED will gradually reduce the pace of balance sheet contraction starting April 1, especially lowering the monthly limit for reinvesting U.S. Treasuries maturing at $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining MBS. Overall, the pace of balance sheet reduction has decreased by $20 billion (equivalent to releasing $20 billion in liquidity), which also suggests that the balance sheet reduction is about to end. As shown in Figure 1, TGA accounts continue to release liquidity, while ONRRP has slightly rebounded, with overall net liquidity performance increasing, which is acceptable.
Figure 1, US TGA vs ONRRP
Last week, the FOMC once again released positive signals. The FED will gradually reduce the pace of balance sheet contraction starting April 1, especially lowering the monthly limit for reinvesting U.S. Treasuries maturing at $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining MBS. Overall, the pace of balance sheet reduction has decreased by $20 billion (equivalent to releasing $20 billion in liquidity), which also suggests that the balance sheet reduction is about to end. As shown in Figure 1, TGA accounts continue to release liquidity, while ONRRP has slightly rebounded, with overall net liquidity performance increasing, which is acceptable.
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The market direction has weakened, $BTC funds have shifted to a bearish concentration since Trump's speech, currently the concentration of bearish funds has slightly decreased, whales are leaning towards neutral positions, and bearish momentum continues to shrink. The liquidation volume for BTC long positions is relatively large, with liquidation zones concentrated around 80 ~ 83k.
Today's sector $TON performed better, while the Base sector performed worse. #VIRTUAL is a relatively strong token today, similar data performance tokens can be monitored.
Data source: blave.org
#PoWMiningNotSecurities
Today's sector $TON performed better, while the Base sector performed worse. #VIRTUAL is a relatively strong token today, similar data performance tokens can be monitored.
Data source: blave.org
#PoWMiningNotSecurities
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The market direction index has received bullish signals for two consecutive days for the first time in three months. The coins that have seen upward pullbacks include SHIB, X, $AAVE , while the coin that has rebounded after a deep drop is $TRX .
The concentration of bullish chips for $BTC has increased to a one-month high, but it has started to slow down. Whales are leaning towards bullish positions while retail investors are starting to chase long positions, and bearish momentum has begun to decline. The data status for ETH is similar. Today, it is advisable to wait for a pullback to correct the chips before considering going long!
The BTC liquidation map shows that around 87600 is the largest area for short liquidations, while the largest area for long liquidations is around 80400.
Data source: blave.org
#BTC走势分析 #BNBChainMeme
The concentration of bullish chips for $BTC has increased to a one-month high, but it has started to slow down. Whales are leaning towards bullish positions while retail investors are starting to chase long positions, and bearish momentum has begun to decline. The data status for ETH is similar. Today, it is advisable to wait for a pullback to correct the chips before considering going long!
The BTC liquidation map shows that around 87600 is the largest area for short liquidations, while the largest area for long liquidations is around 80400.
Data source: blave.org
#BTC走势分析 #BNBChainMeme
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FOMC's previous estimate suggests the market will continue to fluctuate... During this period, I will utilize data to find clearly trending and momentum-driven cryptocurrencies for trading.
$BTC has shifted from a bullish concentration to bearish, with whales leaning towards short positions, and bearish momentum continuing to decline. The maximum long liquidation for BTC is located around 79k~80k, while the maximum short liquidation is around 85k.
Today's sectors performing well include the BNB ecosystem and DeSci, while others with significant increases include $API3 $CAKE , and those with significant decreases include AI16Z AIXBT...
Data source: blave.org
#BNBChainMeme #USTariffs
$BTC has shifted from a bullish concentration to bearish, with whales leaning towards short positions, and bearish momentum continuing to decline. The maximum long liquidation for BTC is located around 79k~80k, while the maximum short liquidation is around 85k.
Today's sectors performing well include the BNB ecosystem and DeSci, while others with significant increases include $API3 $CAKE , and those with significant decreases include AI16Z AIXBT...
Data source: blave.org
#BNBChainMeme #USTariffs
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03/17 ~ 03/23 This Week's Key Information Update
"The market has excessively exhausted bearish expectations, looking forward to the upcoming market trends. I hope you have already seized the opportunity to get back in."
Figure 1, U.S. Fiscal Expenditure and Revenue Forecast
Last week, the U.S. government avoided a shutdown and will have an additional six months to continue operations, even with increasing opposition voices regarding Trump's DOGE. Trump bets that DOGE and tariff measures can solve fundamental debt issues, but it may just be a dream. So far, DOGE has not provided significant help to the government. A recent report from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office indicated that February expenditures grew by 7% compared to the same period last year, while the deficit increased by 5%. Without internal reforms, it is possible that only Bitcoin can truly save the dollar. Musk should return to focusing on running his businesses as soon as possible. 😆
Figure 1, U.S. Fiscal Expenditure and Revenue Forecast
Last week, the U.S. government avoided a shutdown and will have an additional six months to continue operations, even with increasing opposition voices regarding Trump's DOGE. Trump bets that DOGE and tariff measures can solve fundamental debt issues, but it may just be a dream. So far, DOGE has not provided significant help to the government. A recent report from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office indicated that February expenditures grew by 7% compared to the same period last year, while the deficit increased by 5%. Without internal reforms, it is possible that only Bitcoin can truly save the dollar. Musk should return to focusing on running his businesses as soon as possible. 😆
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$BTC The concentration of short positions has increased compared to yesterday, with whales leaning towards long positions and retail investors also leaning towards long positions, while short momentum is decreasing. ETH has also shown similar data performance. When the concentration of short positions increases along with weakening short momentum, the market may be at the end of a bearish trend, and waiting for a pullback to go long would be a better choice.
The BTC liquidation map shows that the largest liquidation area for long positions is around 80632, while the largest liquidation area for short positions is around 88387. Today's sector performance shows that gaming and #NFT are relatively strong (not a good phenomenon), and the performance of altcoins can refer to market directional information.
Data source: blave.org
The BTC liquidation map shows that the largest liquidation area for long positions is around 80632, while the largest liquidation area for short positions is around 88387. Today's sector performance shows that gaming and #NFT are relatively strong (not a good phenomenon), and the performance of altcoins can refer to market directional information.
Data source: blave.org
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The market direction remains bearish. The concentration of BTC short positions increased compared to the previous day and is currently declining slightly. Whales are more likely to hold short positions and retail investors are starting to short. The short momentum has declined slightly, and there is a possibility of repeatedly testing 80k and the low point.
$ETH The chips diverged yesterday, the concentration of short chips decreased, and the whales tended to go long, but the short momentum continued, and it will take time for the market to turn strong.
Today’s market direction shows that several meme coins such as $BONK , $SHIB , etc. have seen huge increases, while ARC and AUCTION have seen huge decreases. The BTC liquidation map shows that the maximum liquidation area for long orders is in the range of 79k ~ 77k, and the maximum liquidation area for short orders is around 85k.
Data source: blave.org
#USTariffs #FollowTheLeadTrader
$ETH The chips diverged yesterday, the concentration of short chips decreased, and the whales tended to go long, but the short momentum continued, and it will take time for the market to turn strong.
Today’s market direction shows that several meme coins such as $BONK , $SHIB , etc. have seen huge increases, while ARC and AUCTION have seen huge decreases. The BTC liquidation map shows that the maximum liquidation area for long orders is in the range of 79k ~ 77k, and the maximum liquidation area for short orders is around 85k.
Data source: blave.org
#USTariffs #FollowTheLeadTrader
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The market direction shows a slight rebound in the bearish index, tokens that have increased and retraced include $MOG, $BONK , while tokens that have deeply declined and rebounded include $B3.
The concentration of short positions for $BTC has decreased since yesterday, with whales leaning towards longs and short momentum remaining flat. For $ETH , the concentration of short positions has increased, with whales leaning towards closing longs and short momentum continuing. According to the liquidation map, the most liquidated long position is at 75823, and the most liquidated short position is at 84402.
Data source: blave.org
#MarketRebound #TheBitcoinAct
The concentration of short positions for $BTC has decreased since yesterday, with whales leaning towards longs and short momentum remaining flat. For $ETH , the concentration of short positions has increased, with whales leaning towards closing longs and short momentum continuing. According to the liquidation map, the most liquidated long position is at 75823, and the most liquidated short position is at 84402.
Data source: blave.org
#MarketRebound #TheBitcoinAct
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Mainstream market weakens, altcoin market strengthens, market sentiment and funding remain highly pessimistic. $BTC Short positions concentration remains stable, whales tend to hold short positions, short momentum increases, ETH short positions concentration slightly decreases.
According to market data, those with significant upward trends include ARB, $AVAX , while those rebounding from deep declines include MOG, $SHIB . Today, consider starting to buy on dips and look for strong coins to trade!
Data source: blave.org
#MarketPullback #MtGoxTransfers
According to market data, those with significant upward trends include ARB, $AVAX , while those rebounding from deep declines include MOG, $SHIB . Today, consider starting to buy on dips and look for strong coins to trade!
Data source: blave.org
#MarketPullback #MtGoxTransfers
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Mainstream market weakens, altcoin market strengthens, market sentiment and capital flow remain highly pessimistic. $BTC Short position concentration remains stable, whales tend to short, and short momentum increases, while ETH short position concentration slightly decreases.
According to market data, there are significant upward trends in ARB, $AVAX , and deep rebounds in MOG, $SHIB . Today, it may be a good time to start considering buying on dips and looking for strong coins to operate with!
Data source: blave.org
#MarketPullback #MtGoxTransfers
According to market data, there are significant upward trends in ARB, $AVAX , and deep rebounds in MOG, $SHIB . Today, it may be a good time to start considering buying on dips and looking for strong coins to operate with!
Data source: blave.org
#MarketPullback #MtGoxTransfers
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03/03 ~ 03/09 Key Information Update
"Short-term policy pains, stay patient, and dig for potential assets during market chaos."
Figure 1, Trump 2.0 Economic Cycle Clock
"There will be some ups and downs, but we can accept it..." Trump responded to his plans since taking office at Congress this Tuesday. This aligns with my views shared in early February regarding the 2025 market outlook (see Figure 1). Trump is actively promoting policies during his new administration's 100-day honeymoon period, which is normal. Therefore, at least during these 100 days (until May), there is significant uncertainty regarding policy factors, leading the market into a risk-off mode. However, as mentioned last week, with the improvement in global liquidity, the market will start to receive more support.
Figure 1, Trump 2.0 Economic Cycle Clock
"There will be some ups and downs, but we can accept it..." Trump responded to his plans since taking office at Congress this Tuesday. This aligns with my views shared in early February regarding the 2025 market outlook (see Figure 1). Trump is actively promoting policies during his new administration's 100-day honeymoon period, which is normal. Therefore, at least during these 100 days (until May), there is significant uncertainty regarding policy factors, leading the market into a risk-off mode. However, as mentioned last week, with the improvement in global liquidity, the market will start to receive more support.
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Trump issued an executive order to recognize Bitcoin as a national reserve asset, and the market subsequently continued to weaken. What will happen to the market next? $BTC $ETH Let's take a look at the data...
According to liquidation data, the cryptocurrencies with the most long positions liquidated in the past 8 hours include $ZEC SCR, QUICK, and others. If a large amount of liquidation occurs, it often indicates that the market's chips have gone through a round of cleansing (rotation), so we can pay attention to the subsequent market trends.
BTC's market concentration shifted to short yesterday in the US session, and the concentration of short positions has slightly decreased, possibly due to whales closing their short positions. Currently, the good news is that the bearish momentum continues to decline, which is favorable for the bullish development.
Meanwhile, the concentration of short positions for ETH has also seen a slight decrease, possibly caused by retail traders chasing shorts. In terms of momentum, bearish pressure continues, but mainstream coins are performing relatively strong.
In summary, the changes in the data tonight should indicate a clearer direction, and it is advisable to use filters to select strong and weak coins for long and short operations.
Data source: blave.org
According to liquidation data, the cryptocurrencies with the most long positions liquidated in the past 8 hours include $ZEC SCR, QUICK, and others. If a large amount of liquidation occurs, it often indicates that the market's chips have gone through a round of cleansing (rotation), so we can pay attention to the subsequent market trends.
BTC's market concentration shifted to short yesterday in the US session, and the concentration of short positions has slightly decreased, possibly due to whales closing their short positions. Currently, the good news is that the bearish momentum continues to decline, which is favorable for the bullish development.
Meanwhile, the concentration of short positions for ETH has also seen a slight decrease, possibly caused by retail traders chasing shorts. In terms of momentum, bearish pressure continues, but mainstream coins are performing relatively strong.
In summary, the changes in the data tonight should indicate a clearer direction, and it is advisable to use filters to select strong and weak coins for long and short operations.
Data source: blave.org
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Congratulations to those who have seen this article, last week was a great opportunity to go long! What about now?
Let's take another look at the data situation for this week...👇🏻
$BTC The chip situation has turned bullish with concentrated chips, whales slightly reducing their long positions, retail investors leaning towards going long, and short momentum starting to decline. According to the data, we may currently be in a bottom consolidation phase. Meanwhile, $ETH and $SOL have similar data conditions, based on the mainstream/altcoin index, we should currently be in the second phase of the altcoin market.
You can use filters and changes in chip concentration to find trading opportunities! 😁
Data source: blave.org
#MarketRebound #USCryptoReserve #CMEsolanaFutures
Let's take another look at the data situation for this week...👇🏻
$BTC The chip situation has turned bullish with concentrated chips, whales slightly reducing their long positions, retail investors leaning towards going long, and short momentum starting to decline. According to the data, we may currently be in a bottom consolidation phase. Meanwhile, $ETH and $SOL have similar data conditions, based on the mainstream/altcoin index, we should currently be in the second phase of the altcoin market.
You can use filters and changes in chip concentration to find trading opportunities! 😁
Data source: blave.org
#MarketRebound #USCryptoReserve #CMEsolanaFutures
Will BTC continue to fall or will it have a chance to rebound?
According to blave data observations, it is difficult for BTC to rise sharply or reverse the short-term trend. It is more likely to continue to fall after the rebound. The bullish trend will only come after the market chips are repaired!
We can compare the recent decline with the past through multiple data conditions👇🏻
1️⃣ Chip concentration (HC), this week's short chip concentration rose to a recent high of -1.94. BTC reached such a high short concentration level three times in the past year, in May, June and September 2024.
It can be seen from the figure that there were two times when the price bottomed out and then started to rise, and one time it bottomed out and started to rise two weeks later. The two bottoming out and rising situations were both when the concentration of short positions hit a new high...
We can compare the recent decline with the past through multiple data conditions👇🏻
1️⃣ Chip concentration (HC), this week's short chip concentration rose to a recent high of -1.94. BTC reached such a high short concentration level three times in the past year, in May, June and September 2024.
It can be seen from the figure that there were two times when the price bottomed out and then started to rise, and one time it bottomed out and started to rise two weeks later. The two bottoming out and rising situations were both when the concentration of short positions hit a new high...
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Will BTC continue to fall or will it have a chance to rebound?
According to blave data observations, it is difficult for BTC to rise sharply or reverse the short-term trend. It is more likely to continue to fall after the rebound. The bullish trend will only come after the market chips are repaired!
We can compare the recent decline with the past through multiple data conditions👇🏻
1️⃣ Chip concentration (HC), this week's short chip concentration rose to a recent high of -1.94. BTC reached such a high short concentration level three times in the past year, in May, June and September 2024.
It can be seen from the figure that there were two times when the price bottomed out and then started to rise, and one time it bottomed out and started to rise two weeks later. The two bottoming out and rising situations were both when the concentration of short positions hit a new high...
We can compare the recent decline with the past through multiple data conditions👇🏻
1️⃣ Chip concentration (HC), this week's short chip concentration rose to a recent high of -1.94. BTC reached such a high short concentration level three times in the past year, in May, June and September 2024.
It can be seen from the figure that there were two times when the price bottomed out and then started to rise, and one time it bottomed out and started to rise two weeks later. The two bottoming out and rising situations were both when the concentration of short positions hit a new high...
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On-chain traders turned bullish today. There are opportunities to go long during the day, but the market may not have really bottomed out yet.
From the data perspective, judging from the scarcity index and the history of BTC whale alerts, the current market status is similar to that in July and August last year. The scarcity index briefly returned to normal levels and then fell again, while the whale alert showed an extreme OI increase level. A similar situation occurred in the middle of last year. After reaching a new high, the market continued to fall before truly bottoming out. It is worth continuing to observe.
The concentration of short positions in mainstream currencies BTC ETH SOL has hit recent highs, with ETH data being stronger and $SOL being the weakest. The 8-hour change in chip concentration shows that the coins that have become stronger in the short term include $ENA , $C98 , ONE, etc., and the coins that have become weaker include #B3 ETC, etc.
Data source: blave.org
#TraderProfile #MarketPullback
From the data perspective, judging from the scarcity index and the history of BTC whale alerts, the current market status is similar to that in July and August last year. The scarcity index briefly returned to normal levels and then fell again, while the whale alert showed an extreme OI increase level. A similar situation occurred in the middle of last year. After reaching a new high, the market continued to fall before truly bottoming out. It is worth continuing to observe.
The concentration of short positions in mainstream currencies BTC ETH SOL has hit recent highs, with ETH data being stronger and $SOL being the weakest. The 8-hour change in chip concentration shows that the coins that have become stronger in the short term include $ENA , $C98 , ONE, etc., and the coins that have become weaker include #B3 ETC, etc.
Data source: blave.org
#TraderProfile #MarketPullback
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02/17 ~ 02/23 This week's key information updates
"Economic data shows weakness, expectations for liquidity release increase, wait patiently for the bulls to attack"
Figure 1: Funding of the U.S. Treasury Department’s Extraordinary Measures
As mentioned last week, the U.S. Treasury has used more than 80% of the funds for the special debt ceiling measures, and currently has $62 billion left to continue to cope with government spending (as shown in Figure 1). It is expected that the United States will need to discuss a new solution to the debt ceiling in March. The Republicans have already proposed a plan to increase the debt ceiling (raising the ceiling by $4 trillion), and there should be clearer results in mid-March.
Figure 1: Funding of the U.S. Treasury Department’s Extraordinary Measures
As mentioned last week, the U.S. Treasury has used more than 80% of the funds for the special debt ceiling measures, and currently has $62 billion left to continue to cope with government spending (as shown in Figure 1). It is expected that the United States will need to discuss a new solution to the debt ceiling in March. The Republicans have already proposed a plan to increase the debt ceiling (raising the ceiling by $4 trillion), and there should be clearer results in mid-March.
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On-chain traders are slightly bearish today and expect the market to continue its volatile upward trend on Friday. $BTC Yesterday, the chips turned to long and concentrated, the whales tended to go long, and the short momentum continued to decline. As long as the short-term chip concentration does not deviate, BTC will continue to operate in a bullish direction. Each copycat has its own performance!
I used the blave filter to select strong and weak currencies. Strong currencies are candidates for long orders, while weak currencies are candidates for short orders.
Strong currencies include: $SEI , PONKE, $MKR , etc...
Weak currencies include: ILV, MOVE, TIA
Data source: blave.org
#BinanceAirdropAlert #TradeFiRevolution
I used the blave filter to select strong and weak currencies. Strong currencies are candidates for long orders, while weak currencies are candidates for short orders.
Strong currencies include: $SEI , PONKE, $MKR , etc...
Weak currencies include: ILV, MOVE, TIA
Data source: blave.org
#BinanceAirdropAlert #TradeFiRevolution
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In the past three months, there were only two days when the market direction index showed bullishness. Recently, the market direction index has slightly rebounded, mainly due to the appearance of more aggressive buy orders 👀, but the overall market performance remains weak...🔥
From a funding perspective, the current state of traders is similar to that in April and August of last year, where the funding scarcity index gradually rebounds as the market weakens, with price performance showing a trend of falling first and then rising (breaking previous lows in April before rallying, testing previous lows in August before rallying). These historical situations are worth using as a reference for future market performance.
Additionally, in April and August of last year, altcoins typically performed better (specific sectors/coins need to be selected), just like today’s $MKR , etc. If we delve into the performance of mainstream $BTC and altcoin sectors, during the low-price fluctuations of BTC last year, certain sectors hit lows earlier, such as the #DeFi lending and privacy sectors (RWA also included), which will provide traders with a good observation direction. If these leading sectors stabilize and rise ahead of time, it will be a positive signal for the market!
In addition to observing changes in funding utilization, we can also analyze the current market state by observing the relationships and changes between sectors.
Data source: blave.org
#MileiMemeCoinControversy #GeopoliticalImpactOnBTC #AIandStablecoins
From a funding perspective, the current state of traders is similar to that in April and August of last year, where the funding scarcity index gradually rebounds as the market weakens, with price performance showing a trend of falling first and then rising (breaking previous lows in April before rallying, testing previous lows in August before rallying). These historical situations are worth using as a reference for future market performance.
Additionally, in April and August of last year, altcoins typically performed better (specific sectors/coins need to be selected), just like today’s $MKR , etc. If we delve into the performance of mainstream $BTC and altcoin sectors, during the low-price fluctuations of BTC last year, certain sectors hit lows earlier, such as the #DeFi lending and privacy sectors (RWA also included), which will provide traders with a good observation direction. If these leading sectors stabilize and rise ahead of time, it will be a positive signal for the market!
In addition to observing changes in funding utilization, we can also analyze the current market state by observing the relationships and changes between sectors.
Data source: blave.org
#MileiMemeCoinControversy #GeopoliticalImpactOnBTC #AIandStablecoins
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Any chance $BTC will get back to 100k this week? 🤨 It is a challenge. If the concentration of chips starts to turn around today, I believe there is a great chance that it will start to climb up 🧗...
According to the current BTC data, the concentration of short positions is still increasing, which means that more large investors tend to short and retail investors tend to long. Only the continued decrease in short momentum is a relatively positive signal. The only difference is whether the concentration of chips can start to decline or diverge!
Judging from the performance of other currencies, the stronger ones today include $ARK $STMX #AMB , which turned strong in the short term, while ID, GLM, DRIFT, etc. began to weaken in the short term... If BTC continues to fluctuate, there will be more opportunities for the altcoins. You can observe the changes in chips and capture short-term trading opportunities!
Data source: blave.org
#MileiMemeCoinControversy #GeopoliticalImpactOnBTC
According to the current BTC data, the concentration of short positions is still increasing, which means that more large investors tend to short and retail investors tend to long. Only the continued decrease in short momentum is a relatively positive signal. The only difference is whether the concentration of chips can start to decline or diverge!
Judging from the performance of other currencies, the stronger ones today include $ARK $STMX #AMB , which turned strong in the short term, while ID, GLM, DRIFT, etc. began to weaken in the short term... If BTC continues to fluctuate, there will be more opportunities for the altcoins. You can observe the changes in chips and capture short-term trading opportunities!
Data source: blave.org
#MileiMemeCoinControversy #GeopoliticalImpactOnBTC
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