GoodTraderP2P

🧧Guidelines for automatic transaction refunds - lifetime for traders or trading on #Binance:

💵Don't underestimate small money, high-frequency trading can even result in refunds that exceed the initial capital many times over.

1/ Register through the link: Binance.com

2/ The words 'Link' will appear with your referral, just click ok to complete.

3/ When the link is successfully established, the words 'retrieve' will appear as shown in the successful image.

👉When trading, you will get cash back to your spot wallet and future wallet.

If successful, you can send the last 3 digits of your ID for me to check again.

USDT has just activated a signal only seen at the bottom of 2022. That was when $BTC
C dropped sharply but the liquidity of stablecoins ran out. The bears have used up their last efforts.

🟠 What direction is ahead for $BTC ?
📌 The non-commercial group on CME - that is, hedge funds and large financial institutions - has significantly reduced its net short position. Last week's COT report showed the net position decreased from about +1,000 contracts to -1,600 contracts within a month.
📌 What does that mean?
🔸 The major speculators have gradually shifted from short to long.
🔸 Bulls are now beginning to overpower bears on CME.
🔸 The process of unwinding shorts is occurring quite urgently -> institutional money is adding longs with urgency.
📌 This is a condition that has previously appeared before mid-term bottoms:
- April 2025: CME speculators reversed -> BTC bounced +70%.
- In 2023: Same futures setup -> BTC increased by more than +190%.
📌 BTC is attempting to defend at the 200-week EMA (~$65,000). Over the past 10 years, every time BTC touched the 200W EMA marked a panic sell candle (2015, 2018, 2020), which were all areas marking the end of the downtrend cycle.
📌 The weekly RSI is in the oversold region -> selling pressure shows signs of waning. If the 200W EMA is held firmly and a decisive bounce occurs, the nearest target will be the 100-week EMA around $85,000 by around April.
📌 However, do not rush to use leverage. $BTC needs to accumulate and sweep more liquidity before establishing a sustainable bottom. A bad scenario is not non-existent:
- In 2022, BTC broke below the 200W EMA and then fell more than -40%.
- If repeated, the price could return to the $40K range.
- Some analyses based on the "4-year cycle" framework also indicate a potential bottom range of $40K–$50K.
A sustainable uptrend will only form when volatility cools down, funding balances out, and spot/ETF returns to lead the flow of money. $BTC

$BTC currently has a very large positive order book depth in the spot market, meaning there are many buy orders waiting below. Very positive in the short term.$BTC

📍 Since the historic peak in October, Bitcoin spot ETFs have witnessed the largest capital outflow ever.

The total BTC balance in spot ETFs has decreased by approximately ~100.3K BTC compared to the ATH region.

This is the largest drawdown ever recorded since Bitcoin ETFs appeared. $BTC
Is this a good time to buy in?

📍 $17B trading volume on the first day - $IQMM has surpassed all ETF launch records
ProShares GENIUS Money Market ETF - code $IQMM - has just recorded $17B trading volume on the first day. This figure exceeds all records for an ETF:
📌 $IBIT (BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF): ~$1B on the first day
📌 BlackRock's ESG ETF (backed by pension money): ~$2B
📌 IQMM is currently being mentioned at ~8x compared to major precedents
$IQMM is not a crypto ETF. This is ProShares GENIUS Money Market ETF - a money market ETF designed to hold extremely short-term assets, primarily:
- US Treasury Bills
- High-quality commercial paper
- Liquid money market instruments
-> Essentially, it resembles a yield-bearing cash fund - similar to $BIL or $SHV - but with a listed ETF structure.
$17B is explained as coming from individual cash flows. But there is certainly involvement from large institutions or cash management structures pouring in.
It seems that those sitting on piles of cash but not trusting the US enough to buy UST want to find a place to invest. #IQMM may have exposure to UST but does not have to worry about rolling maturities. $BTC

The United States Supreme Court has officially ruled that President Trump's tariffs are illegal, with a vote of 6-3.
The U.S. is currently facing a potential tax refund of over $150B. The market immediately reacted strongly to the news.

$BTC

📍The Fed is beginning to pay attention to AI risks:
- Valuation & AI: The market is being pushed high, especially focused on a small group of AI stocks. A strong adjustment risk is "entirely possible".
- SPV and shadow capital markets: Off-balance-sheet financial structures make risks "hard to see", easily causing surprises when the market worsens.
- Private credit: Private credit is rising rapidly and has complex ties with banks/insurance. If there is an incident, the contagion effect could be significant.
- Hedge funds and leverage: Many funds use high leverage, especially in bond trading. Strong yield volatility could trigger sell-offs.
- Consumer differentiation: The low and middle-income groups are weakening, with higher debt and lower savings.
- International risks: The Fed is closely monitoring global bonds and FX because external volatility could negatively impact the U.S.

🇺🇸
Meanwhile, the White House is accelerating the progress of regulations for stablecoins. The third meeting on stablecoin yields will be held at the White House tomorrow with representatives from major players in both the banking and crypto industries in the U.S.

The White House is pushing to pass the CLARITY Act as soon as possible, as delays could cause them to lose support from voters and the crypto advocacy community in the midterm elections.

🏛️ The Fed announces the minutes of the January meeting
Internal disagreements continue within the Fed. Most officials support pausing the rate-cutting cycle, keeping interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% after the last cuts in late 2025.
There is a divide on policy priorities:
🔸 The majority want to wait for more inflation data before easing further.
🔸 Emphasizes the risk of a weakening labor market if interest rates remain high for too long.
🔸 The Fed acknowledges that inflation is cooling, but emphasizes that the process towards the 2% target may be slow and uneven.
-> A Fed pause does not mean a pivot, but rather a halt before further rate cuts. The unemployment rate not increasing further prevents the Fed from committing to the next interest rate path.
The market is currently beginning to price in the next rate cut timing as June (instead of January and March as previously).

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🟠The U.S. financial market has presented an incomprehensible picture since 2022.
The market capitalization ratio of MSCI USA to the M2 money supply of the U.S. has, for the first time in history, reached 270%.
This suggests that the scale of the U.S. stock market is now 2.7 times the amount of money in the system.
From 2022 to now, this ratio has increased by +120 percentage points - more than 2 times. Compared to the past:
- It is higher than the Dot-com bubble peak in 2000 by about 40 percentage points (230% compared to the current 270%)
- It is higher than the period before the 2008 financial crisis by about 75 points.
-> This means that the current market is in a valuation zone that is far removed from actual liquidity compared to the two largest asset bubbles in modern finance.
What about the rest of the world?
- The UK and France: the market cap/M2 ratio is only around 60%, still lower than before Covid.
- Japan is only ~60%, the highest since the 1990s but still very far from the U.S.
This is the first time the market has run so far ahead of liquidity; asset prices have significantly outpaced the rate of money supply expansion.
Clearly, the market is being revalued not due to inflation but because of AI replacement trade.

🟠For the first time since 2005, the correlation between the Yen and the Topix index has turned positive.
Simply put, the Yen and Japanese stocks are rising at the same time.
In the history of the Japanese market, this is a rare occurrence. Normally, a stronger Yen puts pressure on stocks due to its impact on exports. But this time, both are going up.
In the past 12 months:
- The Yen has strengthened by about +1% against the USD
- The Topix has increased by +38%
In the past, the "strong currency + rising stocks" model often appears in long-term growth cycles such as:
- Japan 1982–1990
- Germany 1985–1995
- China 2000–2008
When capital flows believe in a real growth story, they buy both financial assets and the local currency. The Japanese market is definitely worth paying attention to; will the government's efforts bring Japan back to its peak?

Everyone make sure to check the Tet betting on Binance wallet
This is the BEVM - Satoshi event on Binance Wallet - Airdrop of 250k $RIVER tokens
Each wallet gets 10 tokens, but the price of River is so good that it can reach nearly $200, at its peak it must be close to 1000$

🟠 U.S. CPI in January continues to cool down.
- Headline CPI +2.4% YoY, lower than the forecast of 2.5% and down from 2.7% last month.
- Core CPI +2.5% YoY, as expected and slightly down from 2.6%.
-> The current level is approaching the lowest range in 4 years. The year-on-year decline is still being maintained.
On a monthly basis:
- Headline +0.2% MoM, lower than last month by 0.3%.
- Core +0.3% MoM, up from 0.2% in December.
Nothing noteworthy in the CPI components. The decline comes from lower energy prices; however, gasoline prices have risen nearly 5% since mid-January, so the decline from energy may not last in the coming months. Commodity prices +0.010% MoM, almost unchanged.
-> Commodity inflation is nearly eliminated. Everything still revolves around service prices. Electricity prices in the U.S. are at a record high.
Truflation is reporting ~0.72% YoY, much lower than the headline CPI of 2.4% -> real-time price pressures are decreasing faster than official data.
Another data point supporting the Fed. The high inflation cycle has passed its peak since 2022 and there is almost nothing that can pull inflation back to high levels. Inflation is essentially done; the remaining story is liquidity and the Fed's policy stance in a period of "everything is good".

🟢 Aave Labs proposes to transfer 100% of product revenue to the DAO

Aave Labs has just announced a proposal titled “Aave Will Win”, which commits to transferring all revenue from Aave-branded products to the treasury of Aave DAO.

Revenue applies to products such as aave.com, mobile applications, Aave Card, Aave Pro… after deducting the share for partners and promotional costs. If approved, the DAO will directly control the cash flow instead of Labs as before.

In return, Labs proposes that the DAO allocate a budget of approximately $25M along with 75,000 AAVE to continue operating and developing the products. The plan is also linked to the upgrade roadmap for Aave V4 and the establishment of a brand management entity.

The proposal is currently in the community feedback stage (Temp Check) before entering the official voting round. $AAVE

Cathie Wood stated that the earliest point at which quantum computers could become a threat to Bitcoin is around the year 2040.

She outlined three scenarios:
- Fast scenario: encryption could be broken around the year 2044.
- Medium scenario: around the year 2054.
- Slow scenario: around the year 2063.

Based on current progress, this technology is still developing quite slowly and is closer to the slower scenario. However, the pace could increase very quickly, depending on how much resources companies like Google want to invest in this field.

Currently, quantum computers are not a threat to Bitcoin. But in the period from 2040 to 2060, it could become a potential risk. Therefore, security technologies against quantum computers have begun to be researched and developed from now on.

$BTC

📌 Thailand officially allows derivative contracts based on crypto
The Thai Cabinet has approved amendments to the Derivatives Act, allowing digital assets such as Bitcoin and other approved tokens to become underlying assets for derivative products.
📌Accordingly:
🔸 Crypto can be used as an underlying asset for futures contracts, options, and other derivative products.
🔸 The Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand (SEC Thailand) will develop detailed regulatory frameworks and supervise activities.
🔸 Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX) will coordinate the design of contract parameters such as margin levels, position limits, and risk management mechanisms.
This move brings crypto into a formally regulated derivatives system, instead of just trading on individual digital asset platforms.
📌 Note: Crypto is still not recognized as a legal payment method in Thailand. The new legal framework focuses on risk control and investor protection.

💸BlackRock launches tokenized bond fund on Uniswap - price $UNI breaks through

▶️The world's largest asset management group, BlackRock, officially deploys the tokenized bond fund BUIDL on the DeFi protocol Uniswap, marking a new step in connecting TradFi with blockchain.

▶️BUIDL currently has a size of approximately $2.4B, investing in U.S. Treasury bonds and cash, and is the largest tokenized RWA fund in the market today.

▶️The integration is carried out through UniswapX, in collaboration with Securitize, allowing order matching based on a request for quote (RFQ) model for qualified investors, instead of the traditional AMM mechanism.

▶️Following this news, the governance token UNI surged by about 20-30% in one day, reflecting market expectations regarding Uniswap's infrastructure role in the wave of real asset tokenization.

▶️This is the first time a global-scale financial organization has brought U.S. Treasury yield products to DeFi under a legally compliant structure, setting a precedent for institutional capital to access blockchain in a tightly controlled but on-chain payment model. $UNI