阿简在路上
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阿简在路上
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野生加密研究员｜用数据拆解市场叙事｜长期主义｜NFA｜📩 DM Open
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Even a salted fish should have dreams! Welcome, friends—come give Ajian a kick! 🥳
Even a salted fish should have dreams! Welcome, friends—come give Ajian a kick! 🥳
币安广场
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Nominations are now open for the 2026 Global Blockchain Top 100 Creator Awards!
Who is your Creator of the Year?
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Who is your Creator of the Year?
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These shoes are so stylish and cool, but every time I wear knee-high socks, it makes me feel like I’m kinda gay-gay 🤧
These shoes are so stylish and cool, but every time I wear knee-high socks, it makes me feel like I’m kinda gay-gay 🤧
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Verified
Ripple has officially partnered with Meritz Securities to explore institutional custody and asset tokenization services in South Korea. If I remember correctly, this should be Ripple’s first securities partner in South Korea, and the partnership is closer to jointly building financial infrastructure than to a simple ecosystem collaboration. Who handles custody, who serves institutions, and how tokenized assets are issued and settled could all affect real revenue and the price of $XRP . For now, we’ll have to wait and see when it starts generating revenue and completes the business cycle.
{future}(XRPUSDT)
Ripple has officially partnered with Meritz Securities to explore institutional custody and asset tokenization services in South Korea. If I remember correctly, this should be Ripple’s first securities partner in South Korea, and the partnership is closer to jointly building financial infrastructure than to a simple ecosystem collaboration. Who handles custody, who serves institutions, and how tokenized assets are issued and settled could all affect real revenue and the price of $XRP . For now, we’ll have to wait and see when it starts generating revenue and completes the business cycle.
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Without a doubt, today’s market focus is the upcoming U.S. September CPI release. The rebound in energy prices, volatility in AI-related stocks, and rises in oil prices and long-term Treasury yields could all push headline inflation higher. For $BTC , we need to focus more specifically on three things:
First, how far do the actual figures differ from market expectations?
Second, has core inflation moved in the same direction? If headline inflation is driven mainly by energy, the market may interpret it differently than a broad rise in service prices and core inflation.
Third, how will the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets react after the data is released? If the figures come in high but the market has already priced that in, prices may not continue to fall. If the figures meet expectations but yields rise, the market may reassess the rate path.
So A Jian will treat CPI as a checkpoint for testing market expectations, not as a reason to decide the direction in advance. Volatility may intensify around the release, so don’t neglect position sizing and stop-losses because of a single news flash.#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Without a doubt, today’s market focus is the upcoming U.S. September CPI release. The rebound in energy prices, volatility in AI-related stocks, and rises in oil prices and long-term Treasury yields could all push headline inflation higher. For $BTC , we need to focus more specifically on three things:
First, how far do the actual figures differ from market expectations?
Second, has core inflation moved in the same direction? If headline inflation is driven mainly by energy, the market may interpret it differently than a broad rise in service prices and core inflation.
Third, how will the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets react after the data is released? If the figures come in high but the market has already priced that in, prices may not continue to fall. If the figures meet expectations but yields rise, the market may reassess the rate path.
So A Jian will treat CPI as a checkpoint for testing market expectations, not as a reason to decide the direction in advance. Volatility may intensify around the release, so don’t neglect position sizing and stop-losses because of a single news flash.#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
First, how far do the actual figures differ from market expectations?
Second, has core inflation moved in the same direction? If headline inflation is driven mainly by energy, the market may interpret it differently than a broad rise in service prices and core inflation.
Third, how will the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets react after the data is released? If the figures come in high but the market has already priced that in, prices may not continue to fall. If the figures meet expectations but yields rise, the market may reassess the rate path.
So A Jian will treat CPI as a checkpoint for testing market expectations, not as a reason to decide the direction in advance. Volatility may intensify around the release, so don’t neglect position sizing and stop-losses because of a single news flash.#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
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Bullish
After $PYTH bounced from around $0.072 and reclaimed $0.09, open interest and long bias also increased. As long positions became crowded, the risk of a pullback inevitably rose, and the price has now fallen back to around 0.081. AJian suggests that if you missed the first move, you don't need to chase it with higher leverage. You can watch whether today's price action is mainly driven by spot or futures to decide what to do next.
{future}(PYTHUSDT)
After $PYTH bounced from around $0.072 and reclaimed $0.09, open interest and long bias also increased. As long positions became crowded, the risk of a pullback inevitably rose, and the price has now fallen back to around 0.081. AJian suggests that if you missed the first move, you don't need to chase it with higher leverage. You can watch whether today's price action is mainly driven by spot or futures to decide what to do next.
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Bullish
Over the past 24 hours, futures liquidations totaled about $46.71 million for $BTC , about $33.34 million for $ETH , and about $7.15 million for $ZEC , with short liquidations accounting for the majority in all three cases. This explains why some coins suddenly accelerated during this upward price move: shorts being forced to cover creates additional buying pressure, but it doesn’t necessarily mean new long-term capital is flowing in. We’ll also need to see whether prices can hold steady after the liquidations. For now, it looks more like the trend is improving.
{future}(ZECUSDT)
{future}(ETHUSDT)
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Over the past 24 hours, futures liquidations totaled about $46.71 million for $BTC , about $33.34 million for $ETH , and about $7.15 million for $ZEC , with short liquidations accounting for the majority in all three cases. This explains why some coins suddenly accelerated during this upward price move: shorts being forced to cover creates additional buying pressure, but it doesn’t necessarily mean new long-term capital is flowing in. We’ll also need to see whether prices can hold steady after the liquidations. For now, it looks more like the trend is improving.
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Bullish
Just now: A wallet suspected to belong to a whale received 1,162 $BTC from Wintermute via 5 new addresses, valued at approximately $96.77 million. For those unfamiliar, Wintermute provides institutional liquidity and OTC trading services. When coins move from it to new wallets, this could very well indicate a large OTC purchase. The significance of this kind of transaction for the market is that not all buying appears on public exchange order books first; some institutional funds may choose to complete settlement quietly.
Of course, we can't yet confirm who the buyer is, or whether these 1,162 BTC were bought outright, moved for custody purposes, added to market-making inventory, or transferred internally by an institution. I'll be watching to see whether these 5 new addresses hold the coins long-term, whether the coins are split up further and sent to exchanges, and whether sustained spot buying appears in the public market.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Just now: A wallet suspected to belong to a whale received 1,162 $BTC from Wintermute via 5 new addresses, valued at approximately $96.77 million. For those unfamiliar, Wintermute provides institutional liquidity and OTC trading services. When coins move from it to new wallets, this could very well indicate a large OTC purchase. The significance of this kind of transaction for the market is that not all buying appears on public exchange order books first; some institutional funds may choose to complete settlement quietly.
Of course, we can't yet confirm who the buyer is, or whether these 1,162 BTC were bought outright, moved for custody purposes, added to market-making inventory, or transferred internally by an institution. I'll be watching to see whether these 5 new addresses hold the coins long-term, whether the coins are split up further and sent to exchanges, and whether sustained spot buying appears in the public market.
Of course, we can't yet confirm who the buyer is, or whether these 1,162 BTC were bought outright, moved for custody purposes, added to market-making inventory, or transferred internally by an institution. I'll be watching to see whether these 5 new addresses hold the coins long-term, whether the coins are split up further and sent to exchanges, and whether sustained spot buying appears in the public market.
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Bullish
Verified
Just in: Aptos has launched an optional Encrypted Mempool, allowing users to choose, on a transaction-by-transaction basis, whether to encrypt the function calls and parameters of pending transactions, reducing the risk of front-running and sandwich attacks. Sounds cool, but pay attention to the word “optional”: if wallets and apps haven’t integrated it, ordinary users may not benefit automatically. Ajian will keep an eye on how many real transactions enter the encryption process and what the experience is like when transactions fail or are delayed, before discussing how value flows through to $APT
{future}(APTUSDT)
Just in: Aptos has launched an optional Encrypted Mempool, allowing users to choose, on a transaction-by-transaction basis, whether to encrypt the function calls and parameters of pending transactions, reducing the risk of front-running and sandwich attacks. Sounds cool, but pay attention to the word “optional”: if wallets and apps haven’t integrated it, ordinary users may not benefit automatically. Ajian will keep an eye on how many real transactions enter the encryption process and what the experience is like when transactions fail or are delayed, before discussing how value flows through to $APT
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Bullish
I just saw that today’s broad market decline led to the complete liquidation of 500,000 NEAR belonging to a long whale identified as $NEAR and tagged 0xb4a3, worth approximately $2.64 million. As a NEAR holder, A Jian treats events like this as risk case studies, but not as indicators of price direction, because they don’t tell us whether this was an isolated incident or whether crowded positions in the same direction are being liquidated one after another. For highly leveraged positions like these in particular, volatility around the liquidation price amplifies risk, but doesn’t necessarily change the project itself. I’m more concerned with whether my own position can withstand a similar degree of volatility than with analyzing blowups like this.
{future}(NEARUSDT)
I just saw that today’s broad market decline led to the complete liquidation of 500,000 NEAR belonging to a long whale identified as $NEAR and tagged 0xb4a3, worth approximately $2.64 million. As a NEAR holder, A Jian treats events like this as risk case studies, but not as indicators of price direction, because they don’t tell us whether this was an isolated incident or whether crowded positions in the same direction are being liquidated one after another. For highly leveraged positions like these in particular, volatility around the liquidation price amplifies risk, but doesn’t necessarily change the project itself. I’m more concerned with whether my own position can withstand a similar degree of volatility than with analyzing blowups like this.
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Bullish
Verified
The Sui Foundation has just made a $30 million strategic investment in DATA Network, which is planning to migrate its protocol and token to Sui. At first glance, this news might seem like a bullish catalyst for $SUI , but the reality is that the foundation’s willingness to spend money to attract a project is an investment in the ecosystem—not evidence that users have already paid, and it certainly won’t directly translate into a higher token price. To avoid falling into this kind of information-arbitrage trap, you still need to watch three key factors in token value capture: whether the migration is completed, whether the product retains users, and whether it generates attributable economic activity.
{future}(SUIUSDT)
The Sui Foundation has just made a $30 million strategic investment in DATA Network, which is planning to migrate its protocol and token to Sui. At first glance, this news might seem like a bullish catalyst for $SUI , but the reality is that the foundation’s willingness to spend money to attract a project is an investment in the ecosystem—not evidence that users have already paid, and it certainly won’t directly translate into a higher token price. To avoid falling into this kind of information-arbitrage trap, you still need to watch three key factors in token value capture: whether the migration is completed, whether the product retains users, and whether it generates attributable economic activity.
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Bearish
Verified
What a shame. Reports say Blur’s website frontend will stop operating on November 12, and $BLUR has plunged in response. Folks, don’t just mourn or short it—if you have a loan on Blend, quickly check your repayment terms, due dates, and the relevant interface, and save official announcements and transaction records. If you have no exposure, still check and revoke any Blur-related approvals one by one.
{future}(BLURUSDT)
What a shame. Reports say Blur’s website frontend will stop operating on November 12, and $BLUR has plunged in response. Folks, don’t just mourn or short it—if you have a loan on Blend, quickly check your repayment terms, due dates, and the relevant interface, and save official announcements and transaction records. If you have no exposure, still check and revoke any Blur-related approvals one by one.
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Bullish
$ZRO rose about 22% at one point yesterday. Buying was strong, but based on the current price, the 25.71 million tokens scheduled for the upcoming routine unlock on the 20th of this month would be worth around $53.73 million—a substantial amount of selling pressure. The new supply may not necessarily be absorbed, so if you're thinking of chasing the rally, keep a close eye on the unlock vesting schedule, when the tokens become tradable, and where they actually flow.
{future}(ZROUSDT)
$ZRO rose about 22% at one point yesterday. Buying was strong, but based on the current price, the 25.71 million tokens scheduled for the upcoming routine unlock on the 20th of this month would be worth around $53.73 million—a substantial amount of selling pressure. The new supply may not necessarily be absorbed, so if you're thinking of chasing the rally, keep a close eye on the unlock vesting schedule, when the tokens become tradable, and where they actually flow.
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Bullish
Verified
Hong Kong’s second Solana ETF, 2831.HK, issued by Pando Finance, officially listed today. Its stated annual fee is 1.6%, and $SOL is held in custody under arrangements involving HashKey. I won’t claim that the listing will directly drive SOL higher, since a listing alone is not proof of demand. But for people who can’t hold the tokens directly, another access point is a real additional option. I’ll continue to monitor the stock’s trading volume, bid-ask spread, and ongoing fund flows
{future}(SOLUSDT)
Hong Kong’s second Solana ETF, 2831.HK, issued by Pando Finance, officially listed today. Its stated annual fee is 1.6%, and $SOL is held in custody under arrangements involving HashKey. I won’t claim that the listing will directly drive SOL higher, since a listing alone is not proof of demand. But for people who can’t hold the tokens directly, another access point is a real additional option. I’ll continue to monitor the stock’s trading volume, bid-ask spread, and ongoing fund flows
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Bullish
On October 12, U.S. spot $ETH ETF products saw net outflows of about $85.4 million, marking the 10th consecutive trading day of net outflows. Ajian recommends that anyone holding ETH take a fresh look at why they entered their position before making any moves: Is it because ETFs will keep bringing in incremental buying, or because of long-term demand for use? You can’t simply let vision take the place of data. You may leave your position unchanged for now, but your reasons for buying shouldn’t go unexamined forever. #以太坊现货ETF上周净流出5.42亿美元
{future}(ETHUSDT)
On October 12, U.S. spot $ETH ETF products saw net outflows of about $85.4 million, marking the 10th consecutive trading day of net outflows. Ajian recommends that anyone holding ETH take a fresh look at why they entered their position before making any moves: Is it because ETFs will keep bringing in incremental buying, or because of long-term demand for use? You can’t simply let vision take the place of data. You may leave your position unchanged for now, but your reasons for buying shouldn’t go unexamined forever. #以太坊现货ETF上周净流出5.42亿美元
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Verified
According to Citi’s forecast, the U.S. Treasury may reduce auction sizes for 20- and 30-year bonds next quarter, and may even consider canceling 20-year issuance in favor of issuing more short-term Treasury bills. Although the Treasury has yet to confirm these plans, A Jian believes this is highly significant news. It will directly affect term premiums, the duration positioning of banks and funds, and dollar liquidity, while also indirectly affecting the pricing of high-beta assets such as $BTC . Don’t interpret an increase in short-term debt issuance as a massive liquidity injection: if demand for long-term bonds is insufficient, this would be little more than quenching one’s thirst with poison.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
According to Citi’s forecast, the U.S. Treasury may reduce auction sizes for 20- and 30-year bonds next quarter, and may even consider canceling 20-year issuance in favor of issuing more short-term Treasury bills. Although the Treasury has yet to confirm these plans, A Jian believes this is highly significant news. It will directly affect term premiums, the duration positioning of banks and funds, and dollar liquidity, while also indirectly affecting the pricing of high-beta assets such as $BTC . Don’t interpret an increase in short-term debt issuance as a massive liquidity injection: if demand for long-term bonds is insufficient, this would be little more than quenching one’s thirst with poison.
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Bullish
Verified
$AVAX It has risen about 46.9% over the past 30 days, suggesting that investors are starting to revalue some L1 and RWA assets. But judging by the price action over the past few days, A Jian believes this is no risk-free, straight-up rally. The price has moved beyond the narrative-driven launch phase and into a phase where it needs data to sustain the momentum. You could say Helicon’s upgrade has lit the fire; now we need to see whether real users, on-chain fees, the scale of RWA assets, and developer activity can keep it burning brighter. I’ll keep an eye on whether the area around $10 can turn from resistance into support. I’d rather miss out than be the last one buying at the peak of euphoria
{future}(AVAXUSDT)
$AVAX It has risen about 46.9% over the past 30 days, suggesting that investors are starting to revalue some L1 and RWA assets. But judging by the price action over the past few days, A Jian believes this is no risk-free, straight-up rally. The price has moved beyond the narrative-driven launch phase and into a phase where it needs data to sustain the momentum. You could say Helicon’s upgrade has lit the fire; now we need to see whether real users, on-chain fees, the scale of RWA assets, and developer activity can keep it burning brighter. I’ll keep an eye on whether the area around $10 can turn from resistance into support. I’d rather miss out than be the last one buying at the peak of euphoria
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Bearish
Partly True
$STRK STRK benefited from the news that “StarkWare is considering making Starknet an independent, quantum-resistant Layer 1,” rising as much as 116.7% last week. After all, the market has always favored the narrative of moving from L2 to L1 to regain sovereignty. However, I’m reluctant to treat an architectural roadmap as a direct reflection of a token’s fundamentals. A more realistic view is that STRK is currently facing two forces at once: buying pressure from the new narrative, and potential selling pressure from unlocks. For now, it seems the good news is already priced in. We should start watching whether the migration actually happens, whether developers and liquidity follow, and whether the token’s value capture changes.#STRK24小时上涨约20%
{future}(STRKUSDT)
$STRK STRK benefited from the news that “StarkWare is considering making Starknet an independent, quantum-resistant Layer 1,” rising as much as 116.7% last week. After all, the market has always favored the narrative of moving from L2 to L1 to regain sovereignty. However, I’m reluctant to treat an architectural roadmap as a direct reflection of a token’s fundamentals. A more realistic view is that STRK is currently facing two forces at once: buying pressure from the new narrative, and potential selling pressure from unlocks. For now, it seems the good news is already priced in. We should start watching whether the migration actually happens, whether developers and liquidity follow, and whether the token’s value capture changes.#STRK24小时上涨约20%
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The Ledger situation is escalating. There are now confirmed reports that some European users found unauthorized hardware implants in Ledger hardware wallets they bought from official local distributors. Although no funds have been stolen so far, the damage to trust in Ledger as a whole is unavoidable. Ajian would like to remind everyone once again that hardware wallet security depends on every layer working together: the supply chain, firmware, initialization, and seed phrase storage. Don’t assume that buying a device means you can rest easy. #Ledger确认用户设备遭植入未授权硬件
The Ledger situation is escalating. There are now confirmed reports that some European users found unauthorized hardware implants in Ledger hardware wallets they bought from official local distributors. Although no funds have been stolen so far, the damage to trust in Ledger as a whole is unavoidable. Ajian would like to remind everyone once again that hardware wallet security depends on every layer working together: the supply chain, firmware, initialization, and seed phrase storage. Don’t assume that buying a device means you can rest easy. #Ledger确认用户设备遭植入未授权硬件
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$NEAR , what happened? It went up so suddenly, I wasn't prepared.
$NEAR , what happened? It went up so suddenly, I wasn't prepared.
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I finally found time today to watch *A Letter to Grandma*. It’s a two-hour movie, but I watched it on and off for almost four hours because I kept pausing it along the way—I couldn’t bear to finish it. Halfway through, I already had a feeling the ending would make me sob, and sure enough, the moment Nanzhi called out “Sister Shurou,” the tears came streaming down. I can barely remember the last time I cried at a movie—probably when I watched *Hachi: A Dog’s Tale* in middle school. I don’t know what else to say. It’s just a lovely, gentle film that feels so comforting to watch. I recommend it to everyone 🥹
I finally found time today to watch *A Letter to Grandma*. It’s a two-hour movie, but I watched it on and off for almost four hours because I kept pausing it along the way—I couldn’t bear to finish it. Halfway through, I already had a feeling the ending would make me sob, and sure enough, the moment Nanzhi called out “Sister Shurou,” the tears came streaming down. I can barely remember the last time I cried at a movie—probably when I watched *Hachi: A Dog’s Tale* in middle school. I don’t know what else to say. It’s just a lovely, gentle film that feels so comforting to watch. I recommend it to everyone 🥹
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