CryptoQuant Quicktake

On-chain data reveals that Tether (USDT) on the Ethereum network is experiencing an unprecedented surge in user activity. According to the chart, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of active addresses has breached the 200,000 mark, setting a new historical record.

What are the implications?

Increasing “Dry Powder”: A spike in active stablecoin addresses typically signals fresh liquidity entering the market. Investors are actively moving USDT to deposit onto exchanges or interact with protocols, often indicating readiness to purchase risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Ethereum Network Vitality: Since this metric is specific to the ERC-20 network, this surge reflects growing utilization of the Ethereum blockchain, increased DeFi transactions, and heightened exchange transfer volume.

Historically, when network activity for the market’s largest stablecoin peaks, it often precedes positive volatility and increased demand across the broader crypto market. Crossing the 200K active address threshold (on a monthly average) serves as a strong fundamental signal for healthy liquidity flow within the ecosystem.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Do you remember the Bitcoin whale who shorted the 10/11 market crash and walked away with more than $200 million in profit? That same whale appears to be active again, based on recent stablecoin transfers, trading behavior, and Bitcoin movements. Given the size and past market impact of this address, the activity is worth breaking down.

1. Binance as a High-Liquidity Stablecoin Conversion Layer

On December 1, 2025, at 10:23:11 UTC, the whale sent roughly $110 million USDT (Arbitrum) to Binance across three transactions. Shortly after, approximately $230 million USDC (Arbitrum) was transferred back.

This points to Binance being used as a stablecoin conversion venue (USDT → USDC) and/or a liquidity hub for large-scale balance adjustments. The USDC received ($230M) exceeds the USDT sent ($110M), meaning it has likely re-existing USDC balances on Binance.

2. Bitcoin Movement Alongside ETH Long Exposure

On December 12, 2025, around 07:00 UTC, the whale moved 5,152 BTC to a newly created address.

Past Bitcoin transfers from this entity have often aligned with sharp price moves, and this case was no different. The transfer occurred at a BTC price near $92,350, followed by immediate downside pressure. At the same time, the whale maintained significant long exposure on Ethereum.

3. Current Positions

The combined unrealized PnL across ETH, BTC, and SOL is currently around –$71.2 million. While sizable, the drawdown is minor relative to overall holdings: more than 30,000 BTC, along with large ETH and stablecoin reserves. Liquidation risk appears distant, though the positions are clearly under stress.

Key takeaway:

Binance continues to show up as the go-to venue for whale-scale stablecoin conversions, handling large USDT → USDC flows with minimal friction. In parallel, the whale shifted 5,152 BTC and added ETH long exposure within a tight timeframe. This trader is still active, still aggressive, and still worth monitoring in the coming days-to-weeks.

Written by maartunn

Bitcoin faced extreme volatility, surging from $87,100 to $90,400 before dropping to $86,000 in less than two hours, resulting in over $500 million in liquidations. This move, without fundamental catalysts, reflects excessive leverage and possible market manipulation, amid expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike scheduled for tomorrow, December 19, 2025, which could tighten global liquidity.

LONG LIQUIDATIONS

The on-chain indicator Bitcoin: Long Liquidations – All Exchanges, All Symbol, from CryptoQuant, recorded 1,951.015 on December 17, confirming the intensity of long liquidations and strong selling pressure in the market.

INTEREST RATE HISTORY

Expected hike – December 19, 2025 (0.75%)

◾ Anticipated to be the sharpest monetary tightening in nearly 30 years.

◾ BTC fell below $85,000, with $600M in long liquidations within 24 hours.

◾ BoJ comments triggered an additional $430M in altcoin liquidations.

◾ Risk of yen carry trade reversal, reducing global liquidity.

Previous hikes – July 2024 (0.25%) and January 2025 (0.5%)

◾ July 2024: BTC dropped from $65,000 to $50,000, a 26% decline.

◾ January 2025: hike to 0.5%, calmer reaction, but preceded by nearly 31% declines in earlier moves.

◾ Historical record: 23% drop (March 2024), 26% (July 2024), and 31% (January 2025).

CONCLUSION

The current scenario combines massive liquidations with expectations of a BoJ rate hike, reinforcing immediate stress in the crypto market. Historically, BoJ moves have led to sharp BTC declines, and the December decision could be another trigger for global selling pressure.

Written by GugaOnChain

When Investors Stop Pricing the Network Correctly:

The chart shows Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross smoothed with a 100-day moving average, a refined way to observe how market valuation evolves relative to on-chain utility. Conceptually, NVT functions as a Price-to-Earnings ratio for Bitcoin, where transaction volume replaces earnings. It answers a simple but powerful question:

Is the network’s market value justified by how much economic activity it actually processes?

The NVT Golden Cross compares the short-term and long-term behavior of this valuation ratio. When the short-term NVT drops meaningfully below the long-term trend, it signals that market cap is lagging behind transaction activity. In other words, investors are pricing Bitcoin at a discount relative to its underlying utility.

Historically, the most informative moments occur during deep negative deviations. In this cycle, the NVT Golden Cross reached a historically depressed level near -0.58, a zone that reflects not just bearish sentiment, but a structural undervaluation of the network. These conditions typically emerge during periods of forced deleveraging and risk aversion, where price compresses faster than network usage deteriorates.

What matters now is the climb from -0.58 to roughly -0.32: price is beginning to realign with transaction-driven fundamentals after a sharp valuation discount, but the indicator remains in negative territory, meaning Bitcoin is still priced conservatively relative to its network utility.

The present setup points to a market transitioning from deep undervaluation toward equilibrium, a phase historically associated with accumulation and structurally healthier price discovery, while capital becomes increasingly selective rather than indiscriminately risk-off.

Written by MorenoDV_

Bitcoin’s behaviour since the October drawdown reflects a clear transition from distribution into a balance-sheet repair regime. Rather than signalling renewed accumulation or outright capitulation, on-chain data points to a market stabilising after stress, characterised by compressed profitability, reactive exchange flows, and price consolidation under persistent macro constraints.

This assessment draws on four charts: CEX Receiver Balance & NUPL, Inflow SOPR, Binance Deposit Addresses vs Price, and Highly Active Address Inflow & MVRV. Together, they illustrate how different market cohorts are adapting to lower prices while awaiting a more supportive macro impulse.

Exchange-facing participants remain marginally underwater, as reflected in subdued NUPL readings. Importantly, unrealised losses are no longer accelerating, and balances held by exchange-adjacent addresses have stabilised. This combination is consistent with loss absorption rather than forced liquidation. Selling behaviour reinforces this interpretation: SOPR has oscillated tightly around breakeven, indicating that coins sent to exchanges are being sold near cost, rather than aggressively dumped at a loss or distributed at meaningful profit.

Exchange inflows further support the repair narrative. Deposit spikes occur primarily during brief downside moves and fade as price stabilises, suggesting that selling pressure is reactive and event-driven rather than structural. At the same time, speculative activity remains elevated, but valuation metrics have stopped deteriorating. Highly active address inflows persist while MVRV holds within a narrow range, suggesting churn in a range-bound market rather than a renewed speculative expansion.

Crucially, this balance-sheet repair is unfolding within a macro regime that remains only partially supportive. Prior macro-regime research shows that Bitcoin’s strongest and most persistent return profiles emerge when dollar weakness and falling real yields align.

Written by Novaque Research

Bitcoin’s post-October consolidation is not being driven by renewed long-term accumulation. Instead, on-chain activity shows continued dominance by short-term participants operating within a narrow valuation band.

This article primarily relies on the Highly Active Address, Inflow Count & MVRV chart, with selective reference to exchange inflow behaviour for confirmation. The interaction between activity and valuation is central to understanding the current regime.

Over the past month, inflows from highly active addresses have remained elevated, signalling sustained participation from speculative traders. However, unlike earlier in the year, activity spikes have become less extreme and less frequent. This moderation matters: it suggests that while speculation remains present, urgency and leverage are declining.

At the same time, MVRV has stabilised in a relatively tight band between roughly 1.55 and 1.65. This range reflects a market that is neither deeply undervalued nor meaningfully profitable for the average holder. Rising activity without corresponding valuation appreciation implies churn rather than conviction. Capital is being recycled among short-term participants rather than transitioning to stronger hands.

This dynamic helps explain why rallies struggle to extend and sell-offs fail to accelerate. Speculators continue to trade the range, while longer-term holders largely remain inactive. From a macro perspective, this behaviour aligns with a liquidity-constrained environment where risk appetite exists but remains fragile.

Written by Novaque Research

Seeing BTC drop from $120K definitely has everyone on edge. Instead of guessing where the bottom might be in the near future, it’s better to look at the TMMP Chart, which is the average cost basis for both institutional and retail investors.

Understanding the TMMP Chart in 2 Minutes:

The Blue Line (The Survival Line): Think of this as the "last hope" for the market. As long as the price stays above this line, the bull market structure remains intact.

The Green/Yellow Wave (The Profit Thermometer): When the color enters the yellow/red zone, it means investors are heavily in profit and more likely to sell. It has now cooled back down to green, suggesting the market has stabilized and a "handover" is taking place—where older hands exit and new buyers step in.

The Bottom Line:

If this is a Healthy Handover: BTC should find support near the TMMP (Blue Line), which currently sits around $81.5K. For those using a DCA strategy, this represents a solid accumulation opportunity for the next leg up in 2026.

If this is a Prolonged Bear Market: If the price breaks below $81,500 with no signs of a rebound, be cautious. This indicates that the average investor is starting to take losses, which could trigger panic selling and leave the market "cold" for quite some time.

Current Playbook: Don’t rush to buy or panic sell. Watch if we can hold this defensive line and bounce back. If it holds, it's an opportunity. If it fails, Cash is King. Wait for a new bottom to stabilize before adding to your position.

Written by Sunny Mom

Since Bitcoin’s October sell-off, on-chain exchange data suggests the market has shifted away from active distribution and into a phase of loss absorption. Rather than sustained sell pressure, exchange-related flows now reflect reactive, event-driven behaviour that aligns with consolidation rather than trend continuation.

This analysis draws on three charts: Address Frequently Received from CEX, Balance & NUPL, Address Frequently Received from CEX, Inflow & SOPR, and Binance User Deposit Address, Outflow Count vs Price. Together, they capture the profitability and intent of coins moving toward exchanges.

NUPL for exchange-receiving addresses remains compressed near cycle lows, confirming that these participants are still operating with limited unrealised profit. The absence of further deterioration is notable, suggesting that the bulk of forced or panic-driven selling likely occurred during the October drawdown. This behaviour can be linked to loss-aversion, where investors are more motivated by the fear of losses than by potential gains.

Exchange receiver balances remain stable, while unrealised losses are no longer expanding aggressively. Acknowledging this phenomenon, known in prospect theory, helps explain why compressed NUPL signals a psychological pivot from panic selling to cautious holding.

SOPR reinforces this view. Over the past month, it has oscillated tightly around the breakeven level, indicating that coins sent to exchanges are being sold near cost rather than at meaningful profits or at a loss. This behaviour is typical of a market digesting prior downside rather than initiating a new leg lower.

Binance deposit data adds essential context. Deposit spikes align closely with local price weakness and fade quickly once price stabilises. There is no evidence of persistent inflows indicating systematic distribution.

Written by Novaque Research

the average performance of altcoins shows a sharp decline of approximately -27% relative to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), reflecting a widespread weakening of risk appetite toward alternative assets. This divergence confirms that recent market rallies have been driven primarily by Bitcoin rather than by a balanced, broad-based market advance.

When examining exchange-level performance, Binance, the largest exchange by liquidity, records a decline of approximately -30.8% in average altcoin performance. This level is comparable to declines observed on platforms such as KuCoin, Gate.io, and Bybit, indicating that the pressure is not isolated to a single exchange. Instead, it reflects a broader, systemic trend linked to capital flows and shifting investor sentiment across the crypto market.

Interestingly, some exchanges—most notably OKX—have shown near-neutral performance relative to the broader average. This may point to differences in trading pair composition, listing structures, or trader behavior on those platforms. However, these localized variations do little to change the overall market narrative. In contrast, less liquid platforms such as Kraken and Crypto.com have experienced deeper drawdowns, underscoring their higher sensitivity to liquidity outflows during periods of weak momentum.

Overall, the market is not undergoing a genuine altseason, but rather a phase of pronounced liquidity concentration in Bitcoin. Altcoins continue to underperform and deteriorate across most exchanges. Historically, such conditions often precede either a delayed rotation of capital back into altcoins or an extended period of Bitcoin dominance if new liquidity catalysts fail to emerge.

Written by Arab Chain

Yesterday’s Bitcoin inflows into Binance clarify an important market question: who actually sold the dip? While exchange inflows increased during the price pullback, UTXO age data shows the pressure did not come from long-term holders. Coins older than 155 days remained largely inactive, confirming that conviction holders stayed calm. The selling was dominated by short-term holders, meaning this move was driven by recent buyers reacting tactically, not by long-term distribution.

The deeper signal emerges when inflows are analyzed by value size. Despite short-term holders leading volume, roughly 37% of all BTC sent to Binance came from whale-sized wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC. This is a critical structural insight. It shows that large capital was active during the decline, and that Binance was the primary venue chosen for execution and liquidity.

This dynamic matters. When short-term fear intersects with whale-level capital movement on Binance, it often marks transitions in market behavior rather than trend exhaustion. Historically, Binance whale flows have provided early visibility into risk-on and risk-off shifts, volatility expansion, and local top or bottom discovery.

The key takeaway is clear: this was not long-term capitulation. It was short-term selling absorbed in an environment where whales were positioning, not panicking. For traders and analysts tracking Bitcoin market structure, Binance whale activity remains one of the clearest real-time signals for understanding where the market is headed next.

Written by Crazzyblockk

• Over the past two years, only three times has the price traded near the Realized Price of Whales (100-1k BTC).

• Each time, the price moved closer to the RP. Currently, the difference is USD 16k.

Written by _OnChain

The current situation mirrors what we observed when Bitcoin was trading above $100,000.

Buying liquidity is drying up, and the remaining liquidity is merely circulating within the market rather than expanding.

In simple terms, liquidity is stagnating. Without fresh inflows of new capital, the supply imbalance cannot be resolved.

Historically, this imbalance has only been corrected through price declines.

That is exactly what happened above the $100,000 level, and the same pattern is now reemerging.

If new liquidity does not enter the market, we may see an extended period of consolidation or short-term rebounds.

However, such moves would ultimately be meaningless bounces, likely followed by further downside.

Written by Mignolet

Reaching the 170K level strongly suggests that retail participants have either exited the market or are currently unwilling to transact. Historically, retail activity tends to diminish after prolonged volatility and corrective price action, reflecting weakened short‑term confidence and engagement.

From an on-chain perspective, such depressed activity often aligns with a phase of seller exhaustion, where selling pressure decreases but fresh demand has not yet returned. The lack of retail participation can cap short‑term upside, as retail flow typically drives momentum during early rebounds. However, this environment has frequently preceded accumulation periods by larger, long‑term participants, who tend to act during low‑activity regimes.

Crucially, a recovery signal would not come from price alone, but from a gradual rebound in active sending addresses alongside price stabilization. That combination would indicate returning demand and improving network utilization. Conversely, a continued decline or prolonged stagnation in address activity would increase the risk of ETH entering a deeper consolidation or demand‑destruction phase.

Bottom line:

While the one‑year low in active sending addresses highlights short‑term weakness and clear retail disengagement, such conditions have historically appeared near structural bottoms, setting the stage for potential medium‑term trend shifts if activity begins to recover.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Despite billions of dollars in purchases by U.S.-based institutional investors, Bitcoin has remained under sustained downward pressure. At first glance, this appears contradictory. However, once the market’s supply–demand structure is broken down, the picture becomes clearer.

The Coinbase Premium Index shows continued net buying on Coinbase, which largely reflects U.S. flows. In contrast, Asian exchanges such as Binance, Bybit, and OKX have seen persistent spot net selling throughout Q4. This indicates that the core battleground of the current sell-off is not in Western markets, but in Asia.

One major catalyst is the renewed tightening of Bitcoin mining regulations in China. Although China’s share of global hash power has declined since 2021, it still accounts for roughly 14%. A recent 8% drop in network hash rate is therefore significant. On-chain data confirms declining miner reserves, pointing to ongoing miner capitulation. This represents forced selling — not a discretionary decision — as miners are compelled to liquidate BTC to cover losses and operational costs, regardless of price levels.

At the same time, long-term holders in Asia — particularly early “OG” whales — appear to be reducing exposure. Many early Bitcoin holders are concentrated in China, and if regulatory risk was anticipated, selling weeks ahead of public news would be a rational move. Indeed, on-chain metrics show increased distribution from long-term holders over the past one to two months.

This is not panic selling. It is a redistribution phase, where supply from constrained sellers is being absorbed by new buyers. Until this forced supply is fully cleared, Bitcoin prices are likely to remain under pressure.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

The current state of Ethereum (ETH) reflects a significant shift in supply behavior across exchanges, as evidenced by the Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) across all platforms. Data clearly indicates a continued decline in the percentage of ETH held within exchanges, a crucial factor for understanding the current balance between supply and demand.

Across all platforms, the ESR has fallen to approximately 0.137, one of its lowest levels since 2016. This decline reflects an increasing outflow of ETH from exchanges to external wallets, indicating a decreased appetite for immediate selling and a growing preference for long-term holdings. Historically, such behavior often manifests during periods of re-accumulation or in the lead-up to more stable price movements following periods of volatility.

On the Binance platform, the ESR has dropped to around 0.0325, a relatively low level compared with previous months. This suggests that Binance, as the largest exchange by liquidity, is experiencing a clear withdrawal of ETH from its wallets, thereby reducing the supply available for immediate sale in the spot market. This dynamic reflects increased trader caution and a decline in short-term selling pressure. Meanwhile, Ethereum is trading near $2,960, a mid-range level reflecting a relative balance between supply and demand. The decreasing supply on exchanges, coupled with price stability, suggests that the market is not experiencing strong selling pressure, but rather is entering a phase of liquidity absorption and repositioning.

Written by Arab Chain

Over the past year, Ethereum (ETH) has clearly been the leading asset transferred from miners to exchanges. Throughout the chart, individual transfer spikes reach $100M+, indicating that miners are primarily using ETH as their main source of liquidity.

It is evident that miners have played a major role in Ethereum’s failure to sustain a bull run and in the early exhaustion of any potential altcoin rally.

Following Ethereum, USDT and then USDC rank next in miner to exchange transfers. Miners have been making regular and sizable transfers and appear to prefer staying in cash after selling. This behavior contributes to reduced market volatility.

After USDT and USDC, WBTC stands out as the next most transferred asset. While transfer counts are relatively low, they are strategically important. Instead of selling BTC directly, miners are unwinding their Bitcoin exposure through tokenized BTC, which effectively limits upside momentum in Bitcoin’s price.

The most transferred altcoin by miners is Chainlink (LINK). Compared to other altcoins, LINK stands out clearly. When these transfers are viewed alongside price action, it becomes evident that they are liquidation driven rather than speculative.

Overall, miners are minimizing risk and increasing their cash positions. It is clear that they are not in a long term holding mode. In such conditions, a strong bull trend is unlikely. Rallies tend to be short lived and consistently met with selling pressure characteristic behavior during a bear market phase.

Written by PelinayPA

The “Exchange Inflow Mean (MA7)” for Bitcoin on Binance is flashing warning signals once again after a brief period of calm.

This metric, which represents the average amount of BTC deposited per transaction, reached an all-time high of 36.7 BTC on November 22. Following that peak, selling pressure seemed to cool off as the metric retreated to approximately 19 BTC by December 10. However, recent data reveals a sharp and sudden reversal. As of December 17, the indicator has surged back to 29.1 BTC and continues to trend upward.

Why does this matter?

A rising Mean Inflow indicates that the deposits are not coming from retail users, but rather from whales depositing large amounts of Bitcoin at once. Historically, a spike in this metric suggests that large entities are moving funds to exchanges, likely to realize profits or prepare for distribution.

This renewed aggressive inflow activity implies that selling pressure is increasing. Investors should exercise caution, as such movements often precede heightened volatility or potential price corrections.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Recent on-chain data highlights a significant decline in the 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Top 10 Exchange Outflows from Binance. As illustrated in the chart, this metric has dropped to its lowest level since July. Specifically, the outflow volume peaked at 2.88K BTC on July 23rd but has now plummeted to just 1.64K BTC.

Large exchange outflows are typically interpreted as a bullish signal, indicating that whales are moving assets to cold storage for long-term holding (accumulation) rather than keeping them on exchanges for immediate sale. Consequently, this sharp decrease suggests a potential pause in aggressive accumulation by major market participants on Binance.

While Bitcoin’s price continues to fluctuate, this declining trend in outflow momentum serves as a critical signal. It implies that whales might be sitting on the sidelines, possibly waiting for more favorable entry points or reduced volatility before resuming significant withdrawals. Investors should monitor this metric closely for signs of renewed accumulation.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The unrealized profit of ETH whales is almost zero.

Despite the sharp decline in $ETH, whales continued to accumulate. Currently, their realized price is similar to the current price.

As a result, the unrealized profit of $ETH whales is almost non-existent.

They did not take profits in this cycle, and they are further increasing their holdings.

If they anticipate the cycle ending, there is no reason to accumulate $ETH during the decline. They are still buying, and their average purchase price is similar to the current price.

This means that the current price range means an opportunity to buy $ETH at the lowest possible price.

The market is led by whales, and they are buying.

Written by CW8900

The Bitcoin Supercycle thesis argues the classic 4-year boom/bust cycle is broken, giving way to a prolonged bull market. This shift is driven by powerful new fundamentals absent in past cycles:

🏛️ Institutional Onslaught: Spot ETFs (like BlackRock's) create continuous, massive demand from traditional finance, treating Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class, not a speculative toy.

🔗 On-Chain Proof: Key data supports this:

Falling Exchange Reserves show accumulation/long-term holding.

A rational Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) suggests profit-taking is measured, not euphoric.

⚙️ Tech & Infrastructure Ready for Scale: Upgrades like Ethereum's Fusaka and the booming Layer-2 ecosystem make transactions faster/cheaper, enabling real-world utility and mass adoption.

🌍 Perfect Macro Backdrop: Geopolitical uncertainty and future monetary easing create ideal conditions for Bitcoin as a neutral, decentralized hard asset.

✅ Conclusion: This powerful combination of institutional demand, technological maturity, and supportive macroeconomics provides a credible basis for an extended "supercycle." However, it remains a hypothesis—external shocks can still disrupt the path.

Not financial advice. Always DYOR.

Written by CRYPTOHELL