CryptoChan

【Four-Year Cycle Total Record Series (13)】

In February 2016, Bitcoin's realized profit (365-day MA) exceeded realized losses (365-day MA) after 673 days, reaching the peak of the realized profit-loss ratio, with a 2-day error from the bull market peak in 2017.

In July 2019, Bitcoin's realized profit (365-day MA) exceeded realized losses (365-day MA) after 650 days, reaching the peak of the realized profit-loss ratio, with a 2-day error from the peak in the first half of 2021.

In November 2023, Bitcoin's realized profit (365-day MA) exceeded realized losses (365-day MA) after 694 days, reaching the peak of the realized profit-loss ratio, with a 1-day error from $126k in 2025.

The three indicators at the top of the chart are BTC price; Bitcoin's realized profit (365-day MA); and Bitcoin's realized losses (365-day MA). The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of Bitcoin's realized profit (365-day MA) to Bitcoin's realized losses (365-day MA), also known as the "Realized Profit-Loss Ratio (365-day MA)."

This ratio reflects the overall profit and loss status of market participants by comparing the moving average of investors' realized profits (the portion where the selling price is higher than the buying price) and losses (the portion where the selling price is lower than the buying price) over the past 365 days.

In a bull market, the profit-loss ratio is usually higher because investors tend to lock in profits at high prices.
In a bear market, this ratio is usually lower because investors may sell at a loss, reflecting market panic or capitulation behavior.

Using the 365-day moving average smooths short-term fluctuations and highlights long-term trends. This indicator is suitable for assessing whether the market is in a state of overheating (high ratio) or excessive panic (low ratio), making it a powerful tool for evaluating market cycles and trends.

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (20)】

In 2015, the indicator value was 27.3%
In 2018, the indicator value was 27.5%
In 2022, the indicator value was 27.4%
Currently, the indicator value is 26.9%

┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐

The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicator at the bottom of the chart is the market value of long-term holders' coins that are currently in loss as a percentage of the total BTC market value

(Note: Bitcoins that have not moved for over 10 years on-chain are considered long-term dormant or lost and are excluded from the calculation)

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (17)】

The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.

The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."

The current index in the chart has dropped to 1.45

In 2014, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 119 days
In 2018, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 147 days
In 2022, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 123 days

Note: An index of 1 generally indicates a bear bottom

The gray line above in the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding coins held for more than 10 years)

The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of “average cost price of short-term BTC holders” to “average cost price of long-term BTC holders” (yellow line / magenta line)

The average cost price of short-term BTC holders is defined as investors or entities holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. This indicator reflects the cost basis of recent market entrants, who are often more sensitive to price fluctuations and more likely to sell positions during market volatility or downturns. It is often viewed as a barometer of short-term market sentiment and momentum: in a bull market, prices are usually above this average cost price; in a bear market, prices falling below this level may trigger additional selling pressure.

The average cost price of long-term BTC holders is defined as investors or entities holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This indicator excludes coins held for more than 10 years to focus on a more “active” group of long-term holders. The cost of these extremely long-held coins is very low and they rarely move, thus excluding them provides a more realistic LTH cost basis that reflects the average holding price of long-term investors who may actually participate in buying and selling during market cycles. This indicator is often regarded as a reference for market support levels: in a bear market, it may act as a potential price bottom.

The ratio of the two reflects the phases of the Bitcoin market cycle and the dynamics of participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Indicates that the average cost of short-term holders is higher than that of adjusted long-term holders. This usually occurs in bull markets, where recent entrants buy at higher prices, while long-term holders have a lower cost basis. This suggests optimistic market sentiment and strong inflow of new funds, but may also indicate speculative overheating or potential pullbacks.
Ratio < 1: Indicates that the average cost of short-term holders is lower than that of adjusted long-term holders. This is common in bear markets or market bottoms, where recent entrants buy at lower prices, while long-term holders have a higher cost basis. This often signals capitulation, suggesting that weak hands have been cleared out, and the market may be turning towards recovery or the start of a bull market.

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (18)】The current indicator in the chart has dropped to 1.42

In 2014, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 76 days, it reached the bear bottom ($0.15k)
In 2018, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 82 days, it reached the bear bottom ($3.1k)
In 2022, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 26 days, it reached the secondary bear bottom ($17.6k)

The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding holdings for more than 10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of "Average Cost Price of Short-Term BTC Holders" to "Average Cost Price of Long-Term BTC Holders (excluding >10y holdings)" (i.e., yellow line / magenta line)

The definition of the average cost price of short-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Meaning: Reflects the cost basis of recent buyers, who are sensitive to price fluctuations and are likely to sell during downturns. It is often used as a short-term market sentiment indicator — prices above this average in a bull market, and falling below it in a bear market may exacerbate selling

The definition of the average cost price of long-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, but excluding holdings for more than 10 years (these may be lost or never moved, like Satoshi's coins). Meaning: Focuses on "active" long-term holders, providing a more realistic cost basis. It is often used as a reference for market support levels — it may become a price bottom in a bear market

The ratio of the two (short-term average / long-term average) means: Reflects the market cycle stage and participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Short-term buyer cost is high (new funds entering at high prices), sentiment is optimistic but may be overheated
Ratio < 1: Bear market or bottom signal, short-term buyer cost is low (entering at low prices), weak hands are cleared out, and the market may recover
Overall trend: Ratio rising = bull market continuation; falling = bear market or distribution phase. Excluding holdings for more than 10 years makes the ratio more accurately capture cycle turns; historically, < 1 has often been a long-term buying opportunity.

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (20)】

In 2015, the indicator value was 27.3%
In 2018, the indicator value was 27.5%
In 2022, the indicator value was 27.4%
Currently, the indicator value is 26.9%

┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐

The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicator at the bottom of the chart is the market value of long-term holders' coins that are currently in loss as a percentage of the total BTC market value

(Note: Bitcoins that have not moved for over 10 years on-chain are considered long-term dormant or lost and are excluded from the calculation)

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (19)】

The great way is formless, the cycle is tangible.

This round of red bear bottom interval has appeared as usual and is steadily developing.

┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Explanation ──┐

The indicator in the chart is the ratio of the number of chips in a floating profit state to the number of chips in a floating loss state on the BTC chain (considering chips that have not moved for more than 7 years as long-term dormant or lost are excluded from the calculation, using a 7-day MA for the ratio).

When the ratio is < 1, it is displayed in the red interval.

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (18)】The current indicator in the chart has dropped to 1.42

In 2014, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 76 days, it reached the bear bottom ($0.15k)
In 2018, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 82 days, it reached the bear bottom ($3.1k)
In 2022, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 26 days, it reached the secondary bear bottom ($17.6k)

The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding holdings for more than 10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of "Average Cost Price of Short-Term BTC Holders" to "Average Cost Price of Long-Term BTC Holders (excluding >10y holdings)" (i.e., yellow line / magenta line)

The definition of the average cost price of short-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Meaning: Reflects the cost basis of recent buyers, who are sensitive to price fluctuations and are likely to sell during downturns. It is often used as a short-term market sentiment indicator — prices above this average in a bull market, and falling below it in a bear market may exacerbate selling

The definition of the average cost price of long-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, but excluding holdings for more than 10 years (these may be lost or never moved, like Satoshi's coins). Meaning: Focuses on "active" long-term holders, providing a more realistic cost basis. It is often used as a reference for market support levels — it may become a price bottom in a bear market

The ratio of the two (short-term average / long-term average) means: Reflects the market cycle stage and participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Short-term buyer cost is high (new funds entering at high prices), sentiment is optimistic but may be overheated
Ratio < 1: Bear market or bottom signal, short-term buyer cost is low (entering at low prices), weak hands are cleared out, and the market may recover
Overall trend: Ratio rising = bull market continuation; falling = bear market or distribution phase. Excluding holdings for more than 10 years makes the ratio more accurately capture cycle turns; historically, < 1 has often been a long-term buying opportunity.

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (18)】The current indicator in the chart has dropped to 1.42

In 2014, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 76 days, it reached the bear bottom ($0.15k)
In 2018, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 82 days, it reached the bear bottom ($3.1k)
In 2022, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 26 days, it reached the secondary bear bottom ($17.6k)

The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding holdings for more than 10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of "Average Cost Price of Short-Term BTC Holders" to "Average Cost Price of Long-Term BTC Holders (excluding >10y holdings)" (i.e., yellow line / magenta line)

The definition of the average cost price of short-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Meaning: Reflects the cost basis of recent buyers, who are sensitive to price fluctuations and are likely to sell during downturns. It is often used as a short-term market sentiment indicator — prices above this average in a bull market, and falling below it in a bear market may exacerbate selling

The definition of the average cost price of long-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, but excluding holdings for more than 10 years (these may be lost or never moved, like Satoshi's coins). Meaning: Focuses on "active" long-term holders, providing a more realistic cost basis. It is often used as a reference for market support levels — it may become a price bottom in a bear market

The ratio of the two (short-term average / long-term average) means: Reflects the market cycle stage and participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Short-term buyer cost is high (new funds entering at high prices), sentiment is optimistic but may be overheated
Ratio < 1: Bear market or bottom signal, short-term buyer cost is low (entering at low prices), weak hands are cleared out, and the market may recover
Overall trend: Ratio rising = bull market continuation; falling = bear market or distribution phase. Excluding holdings for more than 10 years makes the ratio more accurately capture cycle turns; historically, < 1 has often been a long-term buying opportunity.

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (18)】The current indicator in the chart has dropped to 1.42

In 2014, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 76 days, it reached the bear bottom ($0.15k)
In 2018, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 82 days, it reached the bear bottom ($3.1k)
In 2022, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 26 days, it reached the secondary bear bottom ($17.6k)

The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding holdings for more than 10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of "Average Cost Price of Short-Term BTC Holders" to "Average Cost Price of Long-Term BTC Holders (excluding >10y holdings)" (i.e., yellow line / magenta line)

The definition of the average cost price of short-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Meaning: Reflects the cost basis of recent buyers, who are sensitive to price fluctuations and are likely to sell during downturns. It is often used as a short-term market sentiment indicator — prices above this average in a bull market, and falling below it in a bear market may exacerbate selling

The definition of the average cost price of long-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, but excluding holdings for more than 10 years (these may be lost or never moved, like Satoshi's coins). Meaning: Focuses on "active" long-term holders, providing a more realistic cost basis. It is often used as a reference for market support levels — it may become a price bottom in a bear market

The ratio of the two (short-term average / long-term average) means: Reflects the market cycle stage and participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Short-term buyer cost is high (new funds entering at high prices), sentiment is optimistic but may be overheated
Ratio < 1: Bear market or bottom signal, short-term buyer cost is low (entering at low prices), weak hands are cleared out, and the market may recover
Overall trend: Ratio rising = bull market continuation; falling = bear market or distribution phase. Excluding holdings for more than 10 years makes the ratio more accurately capture cycle turns; historically, < 1 has often been a long-term buying opportunity.

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (18)】The current indicator in the chart has dropped to 1.42

In 2014, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 76 days, it reached the bear bottom ($0.15k)
In 2018, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 82 days, it reached the bear bottom ($3.1k)
In 2022, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 26 days, it reached the secondary bear bottom ($17.6k)

The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding holdings for more than 10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of "Average Cost Price of Short-Term BTC Holders" to "Average Cost Price of Long-Term BTC Holders (excluding >10y holdings)" (i.e., yellow line / magenta line)

The definition of the average cost price of short-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Meaning: Reflects the cost basis of recent buyers, who are sensitive to price fluctuations and are likely to sell during downturns. It is often used as a short-term market sentiment indicator — prices above this average in a bull market, and falling below it in a bear market may exacerbate selling

The definition of the average cost price of long-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, but excluding holdings for more than 10 years (these may be lost or never moved, like Satoshi's coins). Meaning: Focuses on "active" long-term holders, providing a more realistic cost basis. It is often used as a reference for market support levels — it may become a price bottom in a bear market

The ratio of the two (short-term average / long-term average) means: Reflects the market cycle stage and participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Short-term buyer cost is high (new funds entering at high prices), sentiment is optimistic but may be overheated
Ratio < 1: Bear market or bottom signal, short-term buyer cost is low (entering at low prices), weak hands are cleared out, and the market may recover
Overall trend: Ratio rising = bull market continuation; falling = bear market or distribution phase. Excluding holdings for more than 10 years makes the ratio more accurately capture cycle turns; historically, < 1 has often been a long-term buying opportunity.

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (17)】

The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.

The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (18)】The current indicator in the chart has dropped to 1.42

In 2014, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 76 days, it reached the bear bottom ($0.15k)
In 2018, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 82 days, it reached the bear bottom ($3.1k)
In 2022, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 26 days, it reached the secondary bear bottom ($17.6k)

The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding holdings for more than 10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of "Average Cost Price of Short-Term BTC Holders" to "Average Cost Price of Long-Term BTC Holders (excluding >10y holdings)" (i.e., yellow line / magenta line)

The definition of the average cost price of short-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Meaning: Reflects the cost basis of recent buyers, who are sensitive to price fluctuations and are likely to sell during downturns. It is often used as a short-term market sentiment indicator — prices above this average in a bull market, and falling below it in a bear market may exacerbate selling

The definition of the average cost price of long-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, but excluding holdings for more than 10 years (these may be lost or never moved, like Satoshi's coins). Meaning: Focuses on "active" long-term holders, providing a more realistic cost basis. It is often used as a reference for market support levels — it may become a price bottom in a bear market

The ratio of the two (short-term average / long-term average) means: Reflects the market cycle stage and participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Short-term buyer cost is high (new funds entering at high prices), sentiment is optimistic but may be overheated
Ratio < 1: Bear market or bottom signal, short-term buyer cost is low (entering at low prices), weak hands are cleared out, and the market may recover
Overall trend: Ratio rising = bull market continuation; falling = bear market or distribution phase. Excluding holdings for more than 10 years makes the ratio more accurately capture cycle turns; historically, < 1 has often been a long-term buying opportunity.

The -1 standard deviation (bottom line) of the std-adjusted MVRV over a 4-year rolling time window indeed broke through $6w this time.

If we use MVRV excluding holders for >10y/7y/5y, there may be more nuanced effects worth further research.

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (18)】The current indicator in the chart has dropped to 1.42

In 2014, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 76 days, it reached the bear bottom ($0.15k)
In 2018, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 82 days, it reached the bear bottom ($3.1k)
In 2022, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 26 days, it reached the secondary bear bottom ($17.6k)

The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding holdings for more than 10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of "Average Cost Price of Short-Term BTC Holders" to "Average Cost Price of Long-Term BTC Holders (excluding >10y holdings)" (i.e., yellow line / magenta line)

The definition of the average cost price of short-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Meaning: Reflects the cost basis of recent buyers, who are sensitive to price fluctuations and are likely to sell during downturns. It is often used as a short-term market sentiment indicator — prices above this average in a bull market, and falling below it in a bear market may exacerbate selling

The definition of the average cost price of long-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, but excluding holdings for more than 10 years (these may be lost or never moved, like Satoshi's coins). Meaning: Focuses on "active" long-term holders, providing a more realistic cost basis. It is often used as a reference for market support levels — it may become a price bottom in a bear market

The ratio of the two (short-term average / long-term average) means: Reflects the market cycle stage and participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Short-term buyer cost is high (new funds entering at high prices), sentiment is optimistic but may be overheated
Ratio < 1: Bear market or bottom signal, short-term buyer cost is low (entering at low prices), weak hands are cleared out, and the market may recover
Overall trend: Ratio rising = bull market continuation; falling = bear market or distribution phase. Excluding holdings for more than 10 years makes the ratio more accurately capture cycle turns; historically, < 1 has often been a long-term buying opportunity.