The Psychology of the Cryptocurrency Market / The Article You Need to Read Now
Why do most traders buy at the top and sell at the bottom? And how do their emotions become an opportunity that professionals can take advantage of? In the cryptocurrency market, most traders don’t lose because they can’t read charts or lack technical indicators, but because they make decisions under the influence of emotions, while success requires discipline and the ability to manage risk.
✨Many people make good profits from short-term moves, then change their bias every day, only to be wiped out by one big loss because they delude themselves into thinking they can catch every market move.
✨It’s okay not to catch every move. It’s okay not to open a new position every day.
✨Just relax. Focus on what matters: the long-term timeframe.
🔷️Funny how STH supply reached extremely elevated levels in the previous cycle after breaking away from the macro bottom, just as it has in this cycle.
🔷️Another sign that the bottom is in.
🔷️Even after reaching those levels in 2023, $BTC continued to rise gradually while respecting the long-term trend.
🔷️This is exactly what we’re seeing now. Don’t let the Fear and Greed Index fool you. The market can remain irrational far longer than most people expect. $BTC #BTC
🔷️There are really only two short-term scenarios for $BTC
🔷️Either we derisk before the midterm elections and establish a lower low beforehand, or we move higher into the midterms and derisk afterward.
🔷️Let’s just say the bulls really don’t want to lose 80K. If that happens, I’m afraid we’ll see a deeper correction toward 76K–78K. That’s not my preferred scenario; I’m looking for a bigger correction from the 90Ks back to the low 80Ks.
🔷️A move toward 81K would also mean a complete round trip on my long position entered at 81K, which I’m still holding at full size. The best-case scenario for the bulls from here is to start pushing higher into the midterms, break out of the range and make a new high, then see a classic post-midterm derisking.
🔷️For that scenario to play out, BTC needs to start bouncing soon.
🔷️If BTC drops below 80K, I’ll be looking to add to my spot position, increase my long positions, and target a move toward 95K and beyond. $BTC #BTC
🔷️The big Sunday report and everything you need to know Technical analysis / classical analysis / psychological analysis
🔷️My friends, the correction I warned you about has already arrived, and once again my prediction was right. I had already said that we would see a rejection from the 88k–87k zone, and Bitcoin delivered this correction. I closed my short position and am no longer waiting for the 79k zone.
🔷️I increased my holdings of #BTC and #ETH around 80,500 and 2,400, and opened a long position on BTC.
🔷️In the previous report, I explained why I opened a short position on BTC. You can review it.
📊What’s the next move for BTC?
🚀Bitcoin’s next price target is $94,000! I believe this correction is setting the stage for the next phase of the bull market, and my positioning reflects that view. My previous target was the $88,000 zone, and we also saw the correction I anticipated. Now, I’m calling for $94,000! To reach $94,000, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the zone where short positions accumulated and push beyond it. This means Bitcoin needs to show immediate demand at $86,000 rather than distribution. This time, I believe we’ll see accumulation at $86,000–$89,000 instead of distribution—and that’s where resistance becomes support.
I looked at 29 coins. Only 12 projects still have their founder at the helm, without ever having left. Here they are, in order: Sold it or left $BTC: Satoshi wrote his last message in 2011 $DOGE: Its founder sold it in 2015 for car money $LTC: Its founder sold all of it in 2017 $XRP: A co-founder sold 9 billion XRP $SHIB: Its founder disappeared in 2022 and erased his tracks $XMR: Its founder disappeared in 2014
I already told you how $BTC would move after breaking out of the ascending triangle.
What’s next?
In short, if Bitcoin doesn’t close above the 84K level for two days, we’ll definitely see another drop, down to 77K.
A close above 84K for two days would break through the 87K resistance and target the 90K area, where the MM would have finished liquidating $2 billion in LONG positions.
There is no third scenario.
I closed my SHORT position and have now opened a LONG position to hedge my SPOT holdings. #Cobra_btc
I may be optimistic, but I’m not blind to the current structure of the LTF market.
$BTC is now returning to the top of the previous May range, an area it had previously fallen below. If this isn’t just a deviation above the highs, followed by acceptance back into the range and a move lower, we’ll need to see a relatively quick reclaim.
Ideally, $BTC pushes back above the 84–85k area, then retests and respects the previous range low around 82.8k. If that happens, the structure is back in place for us to trend higher.
On the other hand, if we can’t break this barrier... we could move down to 76–78k.
A lot of people post corrections from the previous cycle as if Bitcoin is guaranteed to play them out exactly. This is a big mistake. This cycle is different, whether people like it or not. We’ve pulled back by about 50% from the entire bear market’s decline, which is something we haven’t seen before. On top of that, the biggest short squeeze event—from 62k to 80k—has happened, and the context is completely different.
It’s hysterically funny how every time he posts CZ like this, it’s a negative sign. The bears crush. If you don’t listen, then you deserve the loss you’re experiencing right now.
Just accept it... the market is about to collapse.
From here, a 10% drop would liquidate more than $13 billion in long positions, while a 10% move up would wipe out less than $4 billion in short positions.
This shows just how much longs currently outweigh shorts, leaving far more liquidity below the price than above it.
The only move I still see as possible before the bigger drop is a sweep of the highs toward $87,500–$88,500.
This is currently the largest short liquidation cluster, with nearly all of the remaining short liquidity ( $3 billion).
Sweeping those highs would only make the imbalance more extreme.
After that move, there would be barely any short liquidity left above, while even more long liquidity would likely build up below.
So, for me, there are two scenarios:
Either we see a collapse from the current level, or we sweep $88,500 first and then see a massive long squeeze straight afterward.
A continued move up without a proper pullback won’t be sustainable for much longer. Price will wipe out these late longs...
What comes next after the ascending triangle breakout, and what will $BTC do in the coming days?
🔷️Scenario 1: Bitcoin found support at 82,800, an area of VWAP and VAL. Quite simply, a decisive break below 82,800 with a daily close would lead to a direct drop to 80,000.
🔷️Scenario 2: A quick rise to 85,000 with a daily close would lead to a direct move above 87,400 after the breakout.
Until you learn the art of waiting in the market, you'll remain just liquidity.
An ascending triangle on $BTC , followed by a breakout in the coming hours. Get ready to take advantage of this event, and don't be just liquidity. #Cobra_btc
$XRP : One billion XRP comes out of escrow every month $DOGE : There’s no limit; 5 billion are printed annually $ADA : It’s worth $10 billion, and there’s $69 million in it $LTC: Its founder sold everything in 2017 $BCH: It split in half internally in 2018 $BSV: The court said, "Wright is not Satoshi" $ETC: It was attacked 3 times in one month in 2020