A lot of people post corrections from the previous cycle as if Bitcoin is guaranteed to play them out exactly.

This is a big mistake.

This cycle is different, whether people like it or not. We’ve pulled back by about 50% from the entire bear market’s decline, which is something we haven’t seen before. On top of that, the biggest short squeeze event—from 62k to 80k—has happened, and the context is completely different.

You can’t compare cycles that saw 77–80% drawdowns and then expect the same depth of corrections now. We’ve reached the bottom around -54%. This fundamentally changes the size of pullbacks we should expect throughout the bull market.

The takeaway is simple: the corrections are likely to be less deep than in previous cycles. Expecting the same negative drop because an old pattern looks similar is the same linear thinking that made people convinced Bitcoin would follow the same cycle pattern forever.

I was among the first to realize that cycles accelerate, meaning an earlier bottom, and I positioned myself accordingly. Publishing a pattern without considering the bigger context is narrow-sighted analysis.

In 2023, BTC dropped by 77%. During the recovery from 16k to 69k, the deepest correction was about 21%.

In this cycle, $BTC has dropped only 54%, about one-third less severe. Applying the same logic, a 21% correction reduced by one-third would put the biggest drawdown closer to 14%.

A 14% drop from the 87k highs places $BTC almost exactly at 75k. That’s if we get the full correction from 87k. It could be from 95k down to 80k. It’s too early to say.

So even in a full-range correction from here, we’re only about 6% away from that level. Are you really ready to lose a potential 60% upside move just because you’re waiting for an additional 6% lower? I won’t be.

The bigger capital obviously isn’t either.

I still think the 92–95k zone is where we may see a more significant and broader correction, but it may simply take time to get there.

For those still waiting for 70k: based on the math, the context, and the way this cycle behaves, there’s a real chance we won’t see it again. Even another test of 75k would be a gift.

You need to adjust your mindset if you expect the corrections from previous cycles to be reflected. This cycle was structurally different from the moment it reached the bottom.

This is Wall Street’s asset now.