BIT居士

In the crypto space, it's crucial to keep your mindset in check. If you miss one opportunity, just wait for the next—there are plenty out there. But if your capital is wiped out, no amount of opportunities will matter.

The main reasons folks get wrecked are fear of missing out and holding onto their positions too long, whether the market is up or down. After all the ups and downs we've seen, everyone should learn from these experiences. Missing out isn't the end of the world; at least you didn't lose money. But holding on too tightly can lead to liquidation (for those in leverage trading) or selling at rock bottom (for spot traders).

To make money in crypto, managing your position size and risk is essential. Trade with the big trend and swing in the smaller trends. If you miss an entry, it's gone—there are always more chances. Don't dwell on what could have been if you hadn't sold or what might have happened if you had sold earlier. Stop that wishful thinking. Unrealized gains are just numbers; if your capital is gone, that's the real loss. Surviving in a bear market is the primary goal.

In this bear market, it will either end early or drag on for a long time; the chance of timing the bottom is slim. Most people won’t successfully catch the bottom—I'm talking about 99.9% of folks. Those who do hit the bottom are just lucky. If you try to time it, about 50% or even more might choose to buy the dip in October. Do you really think the market will give you a chance to catch the bottom?

Personally, I believe the chance of an early end is much greater than a delayed one. The market tends to go against the majority's wishes. When most people opt to buy in October, expecting a sideways movement or a drop in August, September, and October, it would align perfectly with public expectations. Most will then probably succeed in catching the bottom in October.

Only this kind of operation would allow the majority to be harvested: the last drop starts in July, followed by a sideways rally in August and September. At this point, many will think this is the final drop before a crash, and they’ll take action—shorting at the highs, pulling back funds, etc. Then, in October, we see a violent surge. You have to ask yourself, will the retail traders buy at this stage? It perfectly aligns with a massive short squeeze, leaving retail traders with their bullets unfired. When they can't resist buying at high prices, a sudden drop will take out the longs, and retail will think new lows are coming. After they sell off, that’s when the super bull market begins!

Don’t think that if prices are high, no one is buying, and don’t assume that if prices are low, no one is selling. Don’t think that an uptrend means the whales are buying it up for everyone, and a downtrend isn’t simply the whales dumping and running. An uptrend is a process of pushing prices while distributing tokens. A downtrend is a process of selling while accumulating distressed assets.

If Bitcoin drops again in July, we might see a sharp decline of 20%, then a sudden halt and quick recovery. Why? First, after the drop from 8.28 to 5.9, retail has learned not to fight the trend, so if another drop happens, everyone will be more risk-averse. Secondly, this scenario aligns perfectly with a rapid bullish spike, leaving no time for regular users to catch the bottom.

Right now, there’s a concern that the crypto market will be dragged down by the stock market, but my view is that the stock market will decline. Capital will automatically flow into undervalued areas, and Bitcoin will naturally become a reservoir for funds exiting the stock market, making it the best opportunity to short Bitcoin positions.

If I were a whale, I would take this chance to execute a dual kill on both longs and shorts. The bottom should be around $53,000 to $55,000.

It's already pumped to 6.63. If you're not gonna HODL the last bit, you can safely cash out your principal.

Let's talk about the SPCX token sale. Personally, I think the retail investors are likely to get wrecked again. With such a large scale and high market cap, the chances of a price dump at launch are pretty high. This global token sale is massive, and before it kicks off, everyone is probably pulling out funds to get in on the sale, causing other assets like Bitcoin and gold to dip and create a price floor. Institutions will likely scoop up these undervalued assets. Once the SPCX sale is done, a lot of funds will want to jump back in and buy these dips, but I reckon those assets are about to start pumping. Retail investors who bought SPCX may realize they aren't making any profits, and they'll try to pull their funds back to buy in at the lows, but the institutions won't give them a chance. Gold and Bitcoin will start pumping, pushing prices higher and then selling at a premium to those retail investors who got in on SPCX 😄, it's a double whammy.

I reckon this bear market might wrap up sooner than expected. We're eyeing 30k, 20k, or even 10k shorts, all waiting for MicroStrategy to take a nosedive. But let me keep it real; seeing that happen in 6 months, or even 1 to 3 years, is pretty unlikely. MicroStrategy has shown everyone that it’s not going to crash. Even if it dips lower, as long as the sell point covers interest, we’re good. They’ve already hinted that they can sell a bit to cover interest and then buy back 50x the Bitcoin the next day. If it really drops to 10k, miners, family offices, MicroStrategy, and big players will scoop up all the Bitcoin. When it hits 10k, MicroStrategy will probably issue more shares to buy 5 million Bitcoin directly. That’s way more profitable than what miners are doing because it represents this Bitcoin halving cycle, where the mining cost is 90k, which means 9x profit; miners will just sell their machines and use that cash to buy Bitcoin.

The most efficient miners have a mining cost of 40k. If Bitcoin stays below 40k for too long, even the top miners will shut down and sell their machines to buy Bitcoin. Right now, most mining rigs are priced between 60k and 80k. If it stays below 60k for an extended period, many miners will have to sell their rigs and pivot. After the Bitcoin halving in 2028, the mining cost is projected to hit 90k. So, it’s not that MicroStrategy will collapse first; it’s the miners that will bounce. The bottom for Bitcoin is likely close to the point where miners go bankrupt or have to pivot, and you should know that many miners are already transitioning to AI. It’s a similar story to previous collapses; miners aren’t making any money! This is the value trap for Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin drops below 40k, I gotta tell you, it’s time to sell the farm to buy Bitcoin because your cost is even lower than the best miners! They still need to buy machines, build facilities, hire engineers, deal with machine depreciation, and a whole list of expenses. The top Bitcoin miners need at least 50k per coin. You don’t have to do anything; you don’t need to buy machines, build facilities, hire people, or worry about machine depreciation. You can get Bitcoin instantly, which takes those guys with 20 machines a year to mine just one. They have time costs, but you don’t. How low do you think Bitcoin can drop below the mining cost? It’s already dropped 80% below the mining machine prices; only 20% are left that are barely profitable.

I wouldn’t rule out Bitcoin dropping another 20% in the future, but I believe the bottom for Bitcoin is most likely in the 53k to 55k range.

Bitcoin is likely to move like this: it will oscillate upwards to around 6.8 from 6.1, creating a phenomenon of a bull market returning. Bulls will flood in, causing shorts to get wrecked. Then, it will start to dip, dropping to 60k and breaking below the 57k level, before touching the bottom around 53k to 54k. After that, it will enter a wide range consolidation, creating the narrative of a drop to 30k, before kicking off the next bull run.

Is Bitcoin at the bottom now? No, so where is the bottom? I think it’s around 5.3. Are we starting to dip now? There's a chance. If it drops to 5.3 in the next few days, then we can start to stack up on some spot buys. The more likely scenario is that we rally from 6.1, sweep up some shorts around 6.6 to 6.8, blowing out most of those short positions and creating a false sense of a solid support at 60k. Then suddenly drop 20%. 6.7*0.2=1.34, which means a drop of about 13.4k, landing us roughly between 5.2 and 5.4. We need to watch the buying strength from the whales and see if retail traders are willing to buy. If the whales are strong and retail is panicking, thinking it could drop to 30k, then this spot could be the real bottom. But if retail goes crazy buying the dip, then it might not be the bottom just yet.

Is everyone reducing their long leverage or too scared to buy? Well, that feeling is spot on. Do you all have this instinct that we might defend against a drop to around 40k to 50k, and Ethereum could dip to 1200? Are the retail traders just waiting for that price point? If that's the vibe, then you're right on the money. Are you selling off some of your spot to gather funds for a potential dip buy at the bottom? That feeling is valid too. Just like back when Bitcoin was at 16k, everyone was waiting for it to drop below 10k, and it might not happen. Maybe in September or October we'll see a spike, with a quick 3000 point recovery in 5 minutes, or even a 5000 point bounce in 10 minutes. Bitcoin's ultimate bottom might be around 55k. As for Ethereum, the bottom could be around 1450, with a flash dip that quickly recovers.

Let's talk about BNB. Honestly, BNB is set to shine in the next bull run, and it's definitely going to break its previous highs. With exchange backing, a deflationary total supply, and plenty of narratives, it's looking good. Plus, with US stocks moving to Binance, it could be bearish for altcoins but bullish for BNB.

Some folks are still saying: Bitcoin is gonna crash to 30k-40k. With MicroStrategy holding 800k, the US government 300k, BlackRock 800k, and the remaining ETFs 200k, plus sovereign wealth funds and public companies holding 600k, if these 2.7 million Bitcoins are in the hands of retail and whales just like in the last bull run, it'll definitely replicate perfectly. During the dip, if half the crowd is bullish and half is bearish, an additional 1.3 million Bitcoins will be in play, meaning Bitcoin would have dropped to around 40k by now. The key is whether these coins are being held tight or thrown into the market; ETFs have cashed out, but that's just a drop in the bucket for the entire ETF market.

Whether Bitcoin will drop to 30k-40k can be seen this week. If it keeps dropping and hits around 48k-52k, then by October, some black swan event might push it down to 38k. If it doesn't hit 48k-52k and just oscillates for 3 months, then at the 59k level, a drop of 4k-5k would put it at 55k, which would be the bottom. Why is there still a chance for another 20% drop? It's because the market needs to clear the leverage. Whether it drops 20% from 60 or rebounds to 75 and then drops to 62, then bounces back to 68 before deciding to drop 20% again, it all depends on how this week plays out.

Is this how BTC's script will play out next?

Bitcoin has already experienced an unprecedented crash, right before the end of the bear market. Now everyone is scared of missing out and also terrified of another drop. After this crash, traders have adopted defensive strategies, either by reducing leverage or cutting positions, and a lot of chips have been handed over, making the bags lighter. Were there any bottom fishers at 60k? Of course, but how many retail traders dare to buy in at 60k? Most are institutional players capitalizing on the dip, and besides the institutions and big players, other retail traders can't handle the volatility.

Every major drop is usually followed by a bounce, but when will it end? Don't rely on candlestick charts; technical analysis isn't worth much. I advise you to block anyone doing technical analysis in the plaza; only 1% make money in this market, and technical traders are even less than 1%! You need to figure it out for yourself. They might make quick bucks, but in the long run, they'll lose. Look at the recent hype around Star and Dentist, those who are consistently trading in this market will inevitably face liquidation one day. If you set stop-losses, market makers are just waiting to hunt those stops, and you'll be endlessly stopped out. Without stop-losses, your liquidation risk is 50%. Just because you guessed right once doesn't mean you'll guess right again.

What should we look at? The fear and greed index and spikes: when the market has dropped significantly and the fear index is extremely low, the probability of a rise is high—it's almost a guaranteed bounce. Conversely, when prices rise too much, a drop is inevitable, same logic applies.

So will Bitcoin move like this this time? There are two scenarios for you to consider. The first is a downward continuation, first testing 60k; if it breaks below 60k effectively, then watch for 59k. If both levels break, we could see extreme spikes, and it’s almost certain that 99.99% of long positions will get liquidated, which means that buying spot will be an excellent area, with the whole market buying spot, including miners, institutions, and retail. This scenario is unlikely. The second scenario is a choppy bounce, creating a scene before the bull market starts, first testing 68k, 70k, and 75k, with prices continuing to rise until retail starts buying, possibly exceeding 68k. Then the market would pull back by more than 20%, making everyone feel it will drop to 30k, leading to mass exits, marking the bear market's bottom. The price could be around 55k, with the timeframe being September to October.

Remember, remember, don't chase the shorts. Since the drop from 8.28, we've seen a 23,000-point dive, followed by a rebound to 6.42. This spike is just to liquidate the shorts, and we’ll likely head down again, but there’s only about a 3,000-point range below. The upside is around 8,000 points, so I don’t recommend chasing shorts. Just like from 8.28 to 7.28, there will be a rebound, possibly between 2,000 to 3,000 points, but it’s been a steady descent until now. Similarly, starting from now, on pullbacks, we should be adding to our positions. The next narrative is about killing off the dip-buying bulls, with liquidation points around 60,000, trapping the shorts, and then continuing the short sell-off! Bitcoin's downside is limited again, and Ethereum and BNB are in the same boat; buy the dips! In the coming days, we might see a surge to liquidate some bulls, roughly around 59,800 to 61,500, but it might not even reach that high. Bitcoin is too strong; any slight drop triggers buy-the-dip behavior. Within the next three months, we could see another drop below 59,000 to liquidate some bulls, possibly around September, and during this period, we’ll likely be oscillating between 59,800 and 72,000.

The media is saying at the lowest point that market makers state: Bitcoin could drop to 10,000 to 20,000, the biggest risks are MicroStrategy and BitMine. What does that mean? The fear and greed index has already dropped to 8, making the cost-effectiveness of spot buying extremely high.

I suggest avoiding contracts; you won't be able to outplay them.

Ain't everyone just fed up with the dip over the last few days? Especially for those trading futures, I recently dipped my toes into futures myself. Started with a principal of 1 million, and during that time, I racked up over 1.6 million in profits. My position management was pretty solid, but in just one week, I got wrecked for over 2.5 million, ending up down nearly 1 million. And honestly, I consider myself a seasoned trader. When it broke below 7.8 on 8.28, I was already bearish, and when it hit 6.9, I thought there’d be a bounce back to 60k. But nope, it just kept plummeting. I made the same mistake as many others—betting on a rebound. My mindset is pretty tough; even with my assets shrinking by 8 million in a month, I didn’t freak out too much because I know spot will eventually bounce back. However, I did make the classic mistake of betting on a rebound in futures and having blind faith in it. We all make mistakes while trading futures, and sometimes that one slip can cost you a lot of capital.

Even the best traders, after 10 wins or 100 wins, will eventually feel the urge to go big. When you do that and skip setting stop losses to avoid getting liquidated, there’s a 50% chance you end up holding onto a bad position. When you’re in profit, you bail early, and when you’re in the red, you just hold on tight until it blows up on you. Once you hit a cascade of liquidations, your mindset shifts, and everything goes haywire.

Everyone needs to learn one thing: control your hands. Keep your positions small, and honestly, it’s best to avoid futures altogether. I always advise against it; if you do trade them, only use small amounts. If you lose, just step back and keep your cool. There are plenty of trading opportunities out there. Don’t rush to catch the bottom. When the market is making everyone miserable, just hang tight and don’t think about catching the absolute lows or highs, or you’ll end up making the same mistakes. Buy during extreme fear, and sell during extreme greed—this strategy never fails. Plus, don’t rush to catch the bottom; avoid that 'catching the bottom' mentality, and don’t try to catch the top either.

For regular folks, the best trading strategy is dollar-cost averaging. Next week, I’m going to start dollar-cost averaging again, and my previous DCA strategy will continue. This time, I’ll be adding Ethereum and BNB to my DCA strategy.

Tonight, I'm waiting for the dip-buying opportunity. If we break 5.9~6.2 tonight, Bitcoin is likely to bounce back to 71k~72k. Then in July, it might drop below 60k again, testing 55k~58k. There's also a scenario where we skip testing 60k and directly bounce during U.S. market hours to test 70k~72k.

Ethereum price at 1832, just bought 180 ETH. Shouldn't we short the upper resistance first? A bounce of 150 bucks up to 1960 isn't too much to ask, right? But even if it hits that price, I won't sell. If it breaks below 1700 and heads straight for 1500, I'm going all in on spot buys.

If Trump really goes to check the Fort Knox vault, and if he actually finds out that the gold bars have been misappropriated, which, of course, is bound to happen. Then, the on-chain real-time visibility feature of Bitcoin will play a crucial role in Bitcoin being integrated into asset reserves. Various countries will push forward favorable legislation for Bitcoin smoothly.

Various groups behind the scenes in the US will try to block Trump from taking a look, and of course, domestically, there won't be any checks 😄. It's wild that a foreign president is acting this way; if it were in the mainland, who could stand in the way of the top leader's decisions, especially in this era of unified powers?

It costs billions to renovate a Federal Reserve building, and yet checking for issues is being blocked. If the People's Bank of China needs to spend billions on renovations and the big boss wants to check, would they block that too? 😄

Thoughts on CME implementing 24/7 futures trading:

Basically, gaps over the weekend will be a thing of the past, and we won't see extreme liquidations due to low weekend liquidity, unless the exchange itself pulls a fast one! This indirectly confirms that if it happens, it must be from some major exchange!

Is CME's 24/7 trading a bullish move? Absolutely, it's created a global liquidity pool, and it might just be the only one out there that operates 24/7. Even gold hasn't achieved this, but Bitcoin has. This is a long-term bullish signal, giving institutions exposure to weekend events. Hot money will be drawn into the Bitcoin market, and the impact will be massive.

Before this, there wasn't a top-tier global asset trading 24/7; the lack of exposure over the weekend was a concern. Now we have Bitcoin. Before the US stock market adopted 24/7 trading, Bitcoin was the only game in town!

Let's talk about the cash-out concerns that a lot of folks are worried about. Lately, many have been asking if the crypto scene in the Mainland will have issues cashing out.

Honestly, there's been a misunderstanding. First off, right now, exchanging USDT on major exchanges is legit.

The illegal parts are: 1. Receiving dirty money during transactions. 2. Using USDT for cross-border money laundering. 3. Providing trading avenues for the public.

As long as exchanges exist, individuals will have ways to cash out. For point 1, it doesn't matter which industry you're in, receiving dirty money is illegal, not just in crypto. For point 2, the main issue is cross-border and money laundering. No matter what you're doing that involves laundering, it's illegal, not just within crypto. For point 3, providing trading avenues for the public with a profit motive falls under the purview of securities and stock exchanges, which are state-owned enterprises. It's like, can an individual open a stock exchange? No, but you can still buy and sell stocks. In the Mainland, there are no laws against individuals holding or trading Bitcoin. In fact, there are legal protections for personal Bitcoin ownership, as Bitcoin is defined as a commodity, just like gold in the Mainland. The only difference is that Bitcoin and gold can't be classified as legal tender!

Binance may not be legal in the Mainland, but it's legal in other countries, so it’s not going away. The three points mentioned above are illegal. However, individuals profiting from investment purposes is legal.

One more thing, in 10 years, you might not even need to cash out. You could directly use USDT in more scenarios, and at most, you might just need to swap it to get the cash you want. As long as there's profit, people will act as intermediaries. And just a heads up, small amounts don’t need to worry about cashing out, and big amounts don't need to stress either.

In Fujian, about 1 in 10 people are doing cash exchanges. If you have 1 billion, you can cash out with cash! To catch them, you'd have to clear out all the Fujian folks first.

In the 80s and 90s, you could snag a 100 square meter apartment in Shenzhen for about 20,000 yuan, and now it’s worth several million. Wealthy folks remain wealthy, and the ordinary people with vision and guts who borrowed money back then have also become rich. That’s just how this world works; you can doubt a rich person's character, but you can’t doubt their vision. You might be broke, but your mindset can’t be.

Wall Street, institutions, sovereign wealth funds, and government agencies are all charging into the Bitcoin market, while you’re still doubting and afraid. In 10 or 20 years, you’ll regret missing out on the digital asset boom just like those who missed the boat on real estate, stocks, or the internet gold rush.

If you want to make money, it’s not about jumping in when things are already on fire. You need to get in 20, 10, or even 5 years ahead of time. By the time Bitcoin is embraced like gold, that’s when you should start to exit. I believe it will happen, and Bitcoin will definitely compete with gold; it will chase down gold’s market cap, and may even briefly surpass it before correcting again and then breaking through gold’s market cap entirely.

Unload the leverage and start boldly buying the spot. The final pin action moment is about to arrive.

How much are folks getting wrecked by the dip in Bitcoin and Ethereum right now? Got any capital left?

The bull market for Bitcoin and Ethereum will eventually come. In this game, it’s not about how much you’ve made, because if you don’t cash out, it’s all just paper gains; preserving your capital is key. When the price drops to the point of no return, do you still have any ammo left? That’s the real secret to snagging profits when the bull market hits.

Everyone should jot this down and stash it behind their phone case, pull it out regularly: Make ten trades, if one goes to zero, reduce your trade count.