0x桐灿

About $BTC Spot Buying the Dip
Personally, I started my official DCA plan when it was around the 60,000 level. The overall strategy is to allocate 70% of the funds for DCA over a period of six months. The remaining 30% is set aside, waiting for a 【golden pit】 to appear, at which point I will make a one-time purchase.

Regarding my expectations for the 【golden pit】, personally I will look at the following three indicators in the chart aligning and resonating at the same time:
1. The Fibonacci 707—786 range
2. The candlesticks reaching the blue moving average
3. The indicator at the bottom of the chart showing a blue pit position

If, during this bear-market cycle, no golden pit appears, then this remaining 30% of funds will be used for a one-time buy when the right-side signal shows up.

In terms of the time cycle, personally I believe that $BTC still needs some time before it truly bottoms out in this bear-market cycle. The current U.S. stock market index has only just started to pull back. I am more inclined to wait until the 【S&P 500】 retraces to around the white long-term moving average, and then observe the situation of $BTC at that time.

—That’s all for reference.

During the Chinese New Year and Spring Festival, I suggest telling the friends around you: after the holiday is over, if you have positions in the A-share market, it’s best to start taking profits and exiting. The Shanghai Composite Index has been suppressed along the upper edge of a triangular major volatility cycle that has lasted nearly 20 years. It’s better to wait until a confirmed breakout holds steady before buying back, and there’s absolutely no need to gamble on a one-time breakout right here.

People always try to earn the last copper penny from the market, but seasoned investors and traders typically begin exiting in batches from the left side at stage highs. Exiting with right-side take-profit via stop-loss sounds easy; however, when profits fall back significantly, most people can’t tolerate the psychological pain of realizing losses from that drawdown, so they delay leaving for a long time. “Maybe it’s just a short pullback.” “I’ll wait for a rebound and then go.” Such delusions and fantasies develop little by little.

This latest V-shaped new high in the U.S. stock market since April 2026 has been driven by AI, semiconductors, and technology stocks. Last month, $SPCX completed what was the largest-scale IPO in human history. In practice, this also means it marks the high point of the sentiment cycle, and market liquidity will inevitably be withdrawn—this is the final departure signal being sent out.

The U.S. semiconductor ETF—$SOXL clearly showed a topping pattern at the beginning of July: 【rising wedge + head-and-shoulders top】. It’s also certain that China’s A-share semiconductor sector will top out as well.

The reason for shorting $TSLA is that Musk has spent the past half year focusing on other companies, and there have also been consecutive mistakes in recent operational decisions for TSLA. Market demand for Cybercab and Cybertruck has been far below expectations, and a clear top-to-pullback formation is also evident. In the short term, expect a pullback; in the long term, I remain 【bullish】.

For the past two months, I’ve been half resting and half learning about the U.S. stock market. After this, I’ll share some of my experiences and thoughts with everyone.

$META $TSLA all show weekly-level bearish structures.

I messed up.
I'm going back to my big short strategy.
I took the full 50-point drop on $ZEC . I'm back in the green.

About $BTC
Chart 1: During the pullback in May, there was a continuous influx of spot buying (yellow area), referencing the activity from mid-February to the end of February. Additionally, in the last 5 days, a significant amount of contract buy orders (blue area) has been executed.

Chart 2: In the past 5 days, nearly 4 billion in contract buy orders have accumulated.

Chart 3: As the price dips, open positions continue to rise; these buy orders are not short covering but rather long entries. (Typically, such a large volume of buy orders wouldn’t be short covering).

—— For your reference.

Yesterday I reminded everyone, this could be the next $NEAR . The buying logic is similar to NEAR: hot sectors + range breakout + holding above EMA200—simplest trading logic is the most effective.
Friends, if you're bullish on $RENDER for the mid to long term, you should buy spot. That way, you can hold it better. Personally, I'm also into 【spot + contract breakout long positions】.

Currently, the crypto market is still liquidity-driven. If you're planning to go long on $RENDER , then after "quietly going long", make a big fuss on Binance Square and Twitter saying, "It's trash, and you're 【shorting】 it".

This way, we might see a smoother upward movement. 😊

Regarding $RENDER , it has already broken through the EMA200 and the upper resistance level, it could be the next $NEAR .
For your reference.

$NEAR waiting for a callback, next target: 3.5—4U.

$NEAR $PLUME Keep your head up

$BTC #OTHERS bullish on the rise, firmly believe in a 'bull market', waiting for the market to reveal the answer in June.

Back in late October last year, I started shorting from $BTC 11 million, while a lot of folks kept trying to catch the bottom and go long, insisting the bull market wasn’t over. Now the market is almost showing its cards, and they still cling to the idea that it’s just a rebound to squeeze shorts.

I posted this two days ago, and there were seven or eight people coming at me calling me an idiot; I’ve blacklisted them all. It's just like last October when I pointed out the bearish trend and started shorting. These same people have been trashing the crypto space for the past six months, saying it’s dead. But when the market turned, instead of going long or grabbing some spot buys at the bottom, they just kept shorting. What else could you call that but foolish?

Even if they get a chance to jump back in when it retraces, I doubt they’ll catch it, and they’ll just keep pushing their shorts. By the time altcoins are nearly back to last year's prices, they'll suddenly wake up and see a bull market, recognizing the new highs, and then they'll FOMO right in. Who’s really at the top? Who's hanging at the peak?

GCR once said:
When the trend first reverses, you should ramp up your risk and gradually protect your profits over time.
People lose money because they do the exact opposite; they’re slow to react early on but get greedier as time goes by.

Besides $BTC $ETH , I've opened a total of 26 altcoin positions. To balance the risk, some are low-leverage long-terms, some are mid-terms, some are short-terms, and some are doing a bit of T+1 adjustments. After a week of trading, I've found that the altcoins keep hitting new highs; just holding onto them without doing anything has actually been the easiest approach...

$ORDI has been consolidating for nearly a month since the first wave of the pump ended on April 17th. It's gone through two rounds of range-bound trading, and the convergence is becoming more extreme. Not sure if we're about to see another big move.

Thanks, altcoin. $NOT $CFG $ENA

$BTC In the past couple of days, BTC has dropped from 83,000 to 79,000. If we were in a bear market downtrend, a mere pullback on the big coin would have sent altcoins crashing. But many altcoins not only held their ground but also pulled back slightly before making a bullish continuation, hitting new highs.

If this isn't a bull market, what is it?

On April 16th, I noticed that the altcoin index #OTHERS broke out of a bearish trend ahead of $BTC . At the time, I couldn't really believe we could kick off a trend rally from here.

Whether you accept it or not, based on the candlestick action, the altcoin index #others has actually formed the first two points of Dow Theory on the daily chart, and it's about to break through the previous high of 3 for a rebound, completing a trend reversal.

Moreover, on the larger weekly chart, there’s a high probability that it will face resistance around 230B and pull back to form the third point on the weekly scale. If the subsequent pullback doesn’t break new lows and then breaks through the third point on the weekly level again, we need to follow the trend and it's definitely time to enter the market.

— For reference.

Entered early on $BTC and $ETH .
Previously, I closed my long position on Bitcoin at 79k after entering at 75k. Now looking to short since there was a significant divergence in volume and price over the past week. On May 3rd, all indicators were diverging, but the drop lacked volume, so I exited the short position at break-even.

Just checked the charts:
1. On the 1-hour timeframe, last night $BTC was getting hammered around 80,500 with heavy volume, yet it couldn't drop further. This indicates strong support here. From a Wyckoff perspective, it’s that saying “effort without result.”

2. On the daily timeframe, we're seeing increased volume today, which is crucial. If $BTC is going to rally, the best way would be to form a consolidation structure to absorb the divergence. This type of movement only occurs during strong upward trends, and conventional divergence indicators like RSI and MACD may fail; we can reference the circle from May 2025.

But the previous structure hasn't materialized until today, which is now more apparent. The consolidation should help digest the divergence, and we may see another spike in volume at the end.

If BTC can break 84k, then we can target 95k; for ETH, a break above 2650 could see it near 3200.
Since the structure has finally formed, I’m inclined to be bolder in May rather than chase high prices later.

———— For your reference.

I feel like we're on the brink of a new bull market, and whether the four-year cycle has been broken isn't that crucial. Right now, we can't judge or predict anything.

Next, if $BTC breaks above and holds at 84k in the 【key trend reversal zone】, we can expect the start of a trend. Jumping straight into a big bull market is still a bit premature. If it turns out to be a mini bull run like in 2019, when everyone is anticipating new highs, and then suddenly it reverses for a huge correction, many will get wrecked. This could completely disrupt your funding plans for the new bull market.

My personal trading strategy for $BTC is to wait for a confirmed breakout and hold above 84k, then scale into trades according to the overhead resistance areas. Take some profits on the way up, and re-enter when there's a solid pullback and stabilization.

For May, when $BTC hits the 【first resistance zone, trend reversal zone】 at 81k–84k, it shouldn't pull back too deeply, or it could be a bull trap. The ideal scenario is a direct breakout of this range, or consolidation in this area. Then, in May, we should keep an eye on the first resistance zone above—around 95k.

Regarding the current market situation, BTC's pullback hasn't been significant, and the upside potential is limited, leading to low volatility. However, each time BTC breaks through a resistance zone, there are more opportunities with altcoins. Those who trade altcoins based on BTC's movements know what I mean.

Currently, 90% of mainstream altcoins in the crypto space are barely alive at the bottom, with volatility even less than BTC’s. Getting stuck in the wrong altcoin could make you miss an entire market move. So, it's better to chase the trending altcoins whenever BTC breaks upward and enters a confirmed trend. Make breakouts, enter at points of divergence, and take 10–20 points profit each time. I believe this is a solid trading strategy for the current crypto market.

— Just my two cents.

$BTC 4 hours of candlestick closing, with a divergence in volume and price. Smart traders should take profits on their weekend altcoin longs and then short a basket of altcoins.

Bitcoin is only down by 2 points but altcoins can crash by seven or eight points.

Forgot to drop the square again... Syncing up the trading strategies and operations from the past couple of days. $BTC $ETH