0xMoon

In the vast world of cryptocurrency, Binance stands like a towering beacon of light, perched at the pinnacle of digital assets. Once it was a presence akin to the Ming Sect, with followers spread across the globe, its doctrine based on 'free trading and decentralization,' attracting countless retail investors and whales to pay homage. The flag of Binance flies high, symbolizing innovation and prosperity, yet it also invites countless jealous gazes.

The former leader CZ, as brilliant and powerful as the sun, single-handedly created this empire, commanding various branches such as the Five Elements Flag and the Sharp Gold Flag, sweeping through the cryptocurrency market. However, fate has been unkind; a regulatory storm forced CZ into retreat, leaving the sect without a leader, embroiled in endless infighting.

First, let me share my view. The current position, and even the recent low of 60K, is by no means the bottom of this round. I believe the bottom of this round needs to go down two more rounds. Not 60K, not 50K, BTC only needs to reach 40K for you to take it home.

First, why is 60K not the bottom? What supports my view?

1/ From the perspective of the time cycle
Looking at the cycle of BTC, there has never been a bear market lasting only 4 months. The last peak was in November 2021, and the beginning of the bottom range was about a year later, with around 14 months to move out of the bottom range. From the perspective of the time cycle, we are far from the bottom range during this period.

On November 15, 2025, Jack's father set out from Atlanta, traveling along Interstate 20 towards Birmingham to help take care of Jack's grandmother. He had just updated the FSD v14.1.3 version on his 2026 Model Y development version, which happened to be perfect for this trip.
At about 3:50 AM, his phone rang. It was a call from his father. He was experiencing severe chest pain, almost losing consciousness and unable to safely control the vehicle anymore. But FSD was already activated and still driving. The author immediately called his grandfather, and they had only a few seconds to make a decision.

The most important thing in a bear market is: don't lose your principal. Why do I say this? Because it's easy to lose money, but hard to recover. Let's do a simple calculation:
Loss of 20%, need to increase by 25% to break even
Loss of 33%, need to increase by 50%

Loss of 50%, need to double (100%)
Loss of 80%, need to increase by 400%
The more you lose, the exponentially harder it becomes to recover. Many people made some money in a bull market, but in a bear market, they over-leverage or go all in, resulting in direct halving and then halving again, leaving their account with just a small amount, with no chance to turn things around. The cruelest part of a bear market is not the price drop, but that many people have directly 'exited' and can never come back.

In the ocean of investment, a bear market is like a long winter night, with biting cold winds and dim stars. Those once brilliant assets fall like autumn leaves, and the market seems like a sleeping giant, devouring reckless adventurers. Only those who understand how to protect their principal can welcome the warmth of spring at dawn. This is not a dry financial guide, but a whisper to investors, reminding us: in the wilderness of a bear market, the art of survival lies in gentle yet steadfast protection.

Alright, let's skip the pretentious introduction and get straight to the point.

This sentence may make everyone ask question marks, but don't worry, let me tell you why. I compared the trends of BTC and the three major U.S. stock indices at this time in the previous round and found something very important: BTC enters a bear market after peaking, with small rebounds gradually building a bottom, but the U.S. stock market does not; it continues to oscillate at high levels.

This chart is from November 2021, comparing the trends of BTC after its peak over the next two years with the three major U.S. stock indices. You can clearly see that BTC becomes weaker after peaking, while the three major U.S. stock indices are just oscillating.