比特猩球孵化器

When will the daily chart crash happen? Eat a chicken leg and have a sip of wine...🍺
#美联储加息25基点美股收跌

The Evolution Path of Trading

1. Before stepping into the speculative market, you think about all kinds of life scripts
2. When you first enter the market, you can profit easily if you hold positions without selling, feeling proud and confident
3. Chasing highs and selling lows ultimately leads to massive losses; your temperament becomes impatient, and you even lose patience with the people around you

Then an evolutionary branch emerges:
3.1. Continue increasing the dose of chasing highs and selling lows, falling into even greater PTSD-triggered stress
3.2. Trapped in an even bigger predicament...

Or another type of branch:
4.1. Start thinking about how to find a way; the process will be arduous...
4.2. In the end, you realize that only by controlling your own behavior can you survive in this world—meaning a trading system

Of course there are other branches too:
Algorithmic trading... fundamental analysis investing... value investing...

#美联储加息是否已成定局

[Daily blow-off drop expectation is valid; short-term continues to look for a rebound]

We have been tightening our assessment since September 10 regarding the possibility of a $BTC -day daily blow-off drop.
The warning remains in effect, but now it needs to withstand the final stress test of either a “rebound” or a “reversal.”

From a purely technical perspective:
Reversal → On the 4H timeframe, a bullish outlook; it could fly straight up, and the daily bearish signal is temporarily put on hold;

Rebound → A short-term rebound on the 4H timeframe; as the tip of a new shoot peeks out, roughly in tandem with the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision in the early hours of the 17th, it may trigger a daily blow-off drop.

$BTC feeble and worthless—are you waiting for orders from Worsh？？？
Flying down straight from a thousand-foot cliff, as if the Milky Way poured down to Nine Heavens

【Daily chart crash warning!!!】

This BTC $BTC over the past two days feels like an affair—three people are showing up at the same time.
Individually, each one seems like true love; together, it’s a tangled mess.

On the lower timeframes (30m–1h), every cycle looks very clear,
but on the medium timeframes (4–6h), everything is tangled together—chaotic and hard to make sense of.

The reason is straightforward: for now there’s a lack of volatility, so on structures from 4H and above it’s difficult to express a clear signal. However, because the lower timeframe has been taking too long, it may be time to directly enter a state where the daily chart crash is about to begin.

Trading can sometimes easily fall into contingency—probability is exactly like that; it can be so unpredictable.

Look at the chart for the last 2H cycle. The weekend is here again, and it might really be hard to push higher.
This could mean another failed rebound, with short-term tops appearing on the 2H timeframe and above—at that point, you can even start looking for shorts.

A daily-chart crash might start in this way: the lower timeframe “sneaks in” quietly, while the medium timeframe’s structure begins awkwardly turning on.

Wait and see

The chicken-leg bet remains valid, but it will definitely be slightly delayed to the right;
For the current 6H timeframe, bullish moves only should be activated; my guess is that the turning point will be tied to the U.S. dollar interest rate decision on the 17th;
Wait and see—first, we’ll see how the final rebound unfolds, and then we need to be careful about the possibility of a new round of major sell-off on the higher timeframes; it’s probably very likely.

The final counterattack, tonight?
Patch: 30m band reversal

Pretty good, $BTC the upward push is weak, and it has just entered the tail end of the high-cycle range!

Let me emphasize: the upward push is weak, but the rise isn't over yet!
At the very least, after some consolidation, it will need to test higher once more...

I told you nonfarm payrolls were basically free money, right!
No matter whether the data is good or bad, jumping in too early just gives it away for nothing. The nonfarm payrolls move is basically free money.

Jumping in a few hours early is strength; jumping in a whole day early is just being the first bird that gets shot.
Maybe the pullback will end on Sunday night and then continue higher, but don't expect it to rise too much, maybe...

#非农就业数据