$SPCX This year I don’t plan to pay attention to it anymore
I’m really afraid I’ll end up going all-in without restraint
From August to November is the peak period when Space X shares are unlocked
The float went from 640 million straight up to 5.2 billion, and most of the unlocked shares are employees’ shares
It’s basically like a large number of retail investors are dumping shares
I’m very bullish long term on $SPCX ’s narrative and profitability
But over the past six months it’s hard to see a big surge. If you’re not afraid of being trapped or you can enter in batches for position-building, then you can move in.
$SPCX Musk again managed to call the trade with his mouth successfully. Now it’s only $18 away from the IPO price—do you choose to hold for the rise, or are you preparing to short?
From the order book, $SPCX has already pulled back nearly 50% from its highest point. Logically and emotionally, a rebound is needed. My impression is that this looks more like technical dip-buying after oversold conditions, plus some bargain-hunting funds betting on upcoming earnings.
From the news flow, institutions estimate that Space X’s revenue in the second quarter will be around $6.9 billion, with most of the income coming from its Starlink business. Since rocket launches and the AI segment are still in a cash-burning phase, overall operating profit is highly likely to remain in a loss state.
On August 6, the chip distribution will undergo major changes: the first tranche of 911.5 million shares that get unlocked can flow into the market—about 1.5 times the current float. In addition, there will be further batch unlocks, continuing until the end of this year. While unlocking doesn’t necessarily mean selling, the steadily increasing share float will most likely keep a tight lid on any upside.
Overall, the risk of falling after the earnings release is greater. Long-term, however, I still strongly believe in $SPCX ’s appreciation potential.