0xbit-关注都是朋友
250 Posts
0xbit-关注都是朋友
2017年进场的老韭菜，野生交易员，不碰合约！
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Macroeconomic Conditions for a Bull Market in Commodities:
1. Geopolitical Conflicts Leading to Supply Shocks
The Strait of Hormuz affects 20% of global oil shipping, 20% of LPG trade, and 9% of aluminum capacity.
2. Loose Monetary Liquidity
The Federal Reserve is currently in a rate-cutting cycle, but the backdrop is insufficient market liquidity. Future observation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is necessary.
3. Rigid Growth in New Demand
AI computing centers, grid upgrades, new energy vehicles.
4. Low Elasticity of Inventory and Capacity
Global mining companies' capital expenditures have continued to shrink since the assessment in 2011, coupled with insufficient long-term investment and ESG constraints, resulting in limited new capacity.
1. Geopolitical Conflicts Leading to Supply Shocks
The Strait of Hormuz affects 20% of global oil shipping, 20% of LPG trade, and 9% of aluminum capacity.
2. Loose Monetary Liquidity
The Federal Reserve is currently in a rate-cutting cycle, but the backdrop is insufficient market liquidity. Future observation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is necessary.
3. Rigid Growth in New Demand
AI computing centers, grid upgrades, new energy vehicles.
4. Low Elasticity of Inventory and Capacity
Global mining companies' capital expenditures have continued to shrink since the assessment in 2011, coupled with insufficient long-term investment and ESG constraints, resulting in limited new capacity.
BTC is still a risky asset, gold is the asset that mitigates risk!
The liquidity of BTC is controlled by Wall Street institutions, following the fluctuations of the dollar market, and it is more volatile than mature assets like US stocks.
Gold is a global asset, truly a borderless asset; when the dollar fluctuates, it remains stable, and when the dollar falls, it rises!
#比特币流动性
The liquidity of BTC is controlled by Wall Street institutions, following the fluctuations of the dollar market, and it is more volatile than mature assets like US stocks.
Gold is a global asset, truly a borderless asset; when the dollar fluctuates, it remains stable, and when the dollar falls, it rises!
#比特币流动性
How to determine: Should I still hold this coin?
Generally, this scenario occurs when you are at a loss, and the coin price continues to decline.
If you sell, you worry that it might rise again later, and now you feel pain from cutting losses!
If you don't sell, you worry that it might drop even more...
At this point, ask yourself a question:
If I sell now and it drops even lower later, will I still buy this coin again?
If your answer is yes, continue to hold;
If you are not very sure or won't buy it again, then sell it immediately!!
#加密市场观察
Generally, this scenario occurs when you are at a loss, and the coin price continues to decline.
If you sell, you worry that it might rise again later, and now you feel pain from cutting losses!
If you don't sell, you worry that it might drop even more...
At this point, ask yourself a question:
If I sell now and it drops even lower later, will I still buy this coin again?
If your answer is yes, continue to hold;
If you are not very sure or won't buy it again, then sell it immediately!!
#加密市场观察
Comparison of the 2 liquidity crises in the US financial market:
1. This time is not as severe as the one in 2019, and the extent of easing is far less than in 2019.
2. This liquidity crisis is compounded by the government shutdown and increased uncertainty.
3. The current depth of BTC's decline is similar to that of the one in 2019.
4. This market may need to wait for further easing from the Federal Reserve—overnight repos, purchasing short-term government bonds, etc!
#加密市场回调
1. This time is not as severe as the one in 2019, and the extent of easing is far less than in 2019.
2. This liquidity crisis is compounded by the government shutdown and increased uncertainty.
3. The current depth of BTC's decline is similar to that of the one in 2019.
4. This market may need to wait for further easing from the Federal Reserve—overnight repos, purchasing short-term government bonds, etc!
#加密市场回调
Good news is coming one after another!
The temporary funding bill has been passed by the House of Representatives, just waiting for Trump's signature to take effect, and the shutdown is over!
U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that there will be significant tariff news in the coming days. Since it has been announced this way, it must not be bad news.
Looking ahead to today, the market is promising!
The temporary funding bill has been passed by the House of Representatives, just waiting for Trump's signature to take effect, and the shutdown is over!
U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that there will be significant tariff news in the coming days. Since it has been announced this way, it must not be bad news.
Looking ahead to today, the market is promising!
The suspension is about to end, and the callback is a good opportunity to buy the dip!
From a weekly perspective, BTC may test 99,000 again this week, which is near the blue M60 line.
The reason is that since the suspension has not yet ended, employment data and CPI data cannot be released on time, and there are differences within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to cut interest rates in December!
The outlook for rate cuts is unclear, and with Federal Reserve officials warning about inflation, the market has fallen again in a panic.
However, it is highly unlikely to break below the M60 line.
In this cycle, since BTC's weekly chart crossed the M60, there has been no break below it during any pullbacks before the bull market ended.
In the last cycle, only a black swan event of pandemic level caused BTC's weekly chart to break below the M60, and it did not break below it until the end of the bull market at the end of 2021.
According to Polymarket predictions, the probability of the suspension ending before the 15th has risen to 96%, and it is highly unlikely that any surprises will occur.
Therefore, I believe that tonight and tomorrow are both good opportunities to buy the dip!
From a weekly perspective, BTC may test 99,000 again this week, which is near the blue M60 line.
The reason is that since the suspension has not yet ended, employment data and CPI data cannot be released on time, and there are differences within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to cut interest rates in December!
The outlook for rate cuts is unclear, and with Federal Reserve officials warning about inflation, the market has fallen again in a panic.
However, it is highly unlikely to break below the M60 line.
In this cycle, since BTC's weekly chart crossed the M60, there has been no break below it during any pullbacks before the bull market ended.
In the last cycle, only a black swan event of pandemic level caused BTC's weekly chart to break below the M60, and it did not break below it until the end of the bull market at the end of 2021.
According to Polymarket predictions, the probability of the suspension ending before the 15th has risen to 96%, and it is highly unlikely that any surprises will occur.
Therefore, I believe that tonight and tomorrow are both good opportunities to buy the dip!
In the next 2 weeks, positive factors outweigh negative ones!
Positive Factor 1:
Recently, both the Democratic and Republican parties have realized that if the stalemate continues, something could go wrong, so they are actively promoting the passage of a "temporary funding bill." Therefore, there is betting on Polymarket that the stalemate will end between the 12th and 15th.
Positive Factor 2:
Although the CPI data for the 13th cannot be published on time, the market has generally accepted that even if the stalemate ends immediately, the Labor Department will not be able to complete the CPI data before the 13th.
Therefore, the CPI data might be published a few days before the interest rate meeting on December 10th — similar to the script in October, with Trump's influence, it is very likely still favorable for interest rate cut data.
Negative Factor 1:
This week, there will be a $1250 billion U.S. Treasury auction:
-Monday will auction $58 billion of 3-year Treasury bonds,
-Wednesday will auction $42 billion of 10-year Treasury bonds,
-Thursday will auction $25 billion of 30-year Treasury bonds.
Tonight's decline is also likely due to the Treasury auction causing the market liquidity to decrease by $58 billion.
Positive Factor 1:
Recently, both the Democratic and Republican parties have realized that if the stalemate continues, something could go wrong, so they are actively promoting the passage of a "temporary funding bill." Therefore, there is betting on Polymarket that the stalemate will end between the 12th and 15th.
Positive Factor 2:
Although the CPI data for the 13th cannot be published on time, the market has generally accepted that even if the stalemate ends immediately, the Labor Department will not be able to complete the CPI data before the 13th.
Therefore, the CPI data might be published a few days before the interest rate meeting on December 10th — similar to the script in October, with Trump's influence, it is very likely still favorable for interest rate cut data.
Negative Factor 1:
This week, there will be a $1250 billion U.S. Treasury auction:
-Monday will auction $58 billion of 3-year Treasury bonds,
-Wednesday will auction $42 billion of 10-year Treasury bonds,
-Thursday will auction $25 billion of 30-year Treasury bonds.
Tonight's decline is also likely due to the Treasury auction causing the market liquidity to decrease by $58 billion.
The Great Beautiful Act overall increases government spending and raises the fiscal deficit!
• Areas of increased spending:
The act significantly boosts funding in areas such as national defense, border security, and energy production. These measures aim to strengthen national security and energy independence, such as border wall construction and military expansion.
• Areas of reduced spending:
At the same time, the act cuts social welfare programs such as Medicaid, welfare support, student loan assistance, nutrition programs, and 'green energy' subsidies. These cuts aim to reduce 'government waste' and control the budget.
• Net effect:
According to analysis, the final version of the act leads to a net increase in government spending of approximately $90 billion, while revenue decreases by about $20 billion, resulting in an increase in the fiscal deficit of approximately $110 billion, further raising federal debt.
Overall, this tax and spending reform is seen as a combination of 'tax cuts + some increased spending,' stimulating economic growth in the short term but exacerbating fiscal pressure in the long term.
This act was officially passed in July 2025 and is the core of Trump's tax reform during his second term, expected to add an additional $3-4 trillion deficit over the next 10 years.
The reason for the current shutdown is that the Democratic and Republican parties failed to reach an agreement on the content of 'cutting Medicaid,' causing the temporary funding bill to also fail to pass, leaving the government without funding, resulting in the shutdown.
• Areas of increased spending:
The act significantly boosts funding in areas such as national defense, border security, and energy production. These measures aim to strengthen national security and energy independence, such as border wall construction and military expansion.
• Areas of reduced spending:
At the same time, the act cuts social welfare programs such as Medicaid, welfare support, student loan assistance, nutrition programs, and 'green energy' subsidies. These cuts aim to reduce 'government waste' and control the budget.
• Net effect:
According to analysis, the final version of the act leads to a net increase in government spending of approximately $90 billion, while revenue decreases by about $20 billion, resulting in an increase in the fiscal deficit of approximately $110 billion, further raising federal debt.
Overall, this tax and spending reform is seen as a combination of 'tax cuts + some increased spending,' stimulating economic growth in the short term but exacerbating fiscal pressure in the long term.
This act was officially passed in July 2025 and is the core of Trump's tax reform during his second term, expected to add an additional $3-4 trillion deficit over the next 10 years.
The reason for the current shutdown is that the Democratic and Republican parties failed to reach an agreement on the content of 'cutting Medicaid,' causing the temporary funding bill to also fail to pass, leaving the government without funding, resulting in the shutdown.
From the price trends of $SUI and $APT:
Both are public chains based on the MOVE programming language concept, with APT上市 first, benefiting a large number of people through airdrops, seizing the initiative;
The SUI ecosystem is assumed to be better, and it is more prosperous than APT; therefore, the price of SUI has more potential.
The launch of APT was the peak, and it is also a microcosm of many popular concepts among VCs.
Both are public chains based on the MOVE programming language concept, with APT上市 first, benefiting a large number of people through airdrops, seizing the initiative;
The SUI ecosystem is assumed to be better, and it is more prosperous than APT; therefore, the price of SUI has more potential.
The launch of APT was the peak, and it is also a microcosm of many popular concepts among VCs.
2025 Crypto Treasury Company Report:
1. There are currently 142 crypto treasury companies, with 76 established in 2025, accounting for over 50%.
2. In 2025, the total investment by treasury companies is 42.7 billion, of which 22.6 billion (over 50%) was purchased in the third quarter.
Among BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB, all treasury companies except for BNB are in a state of unrealized losses.
3. Strategy holds over 70.7 billion in crypto assets, representing 50% of all crypto treasuries.
This is comparable to the status of BTC in the crypto field, serving as a barometer.
4. Out of 142 crypto treasuries, 113 hold BTC, 15 hold ETH, and 10 hold SOL; in terms of market value, BTC accounts for 82.6% of all crypto treasuries, ETH accounts for 13.2%, and SOL accounts for 2.1%.
Apart from BTC and ETH, others are just beginning; later currencies can be monitored for changes in proportion, which may be one of the key factors influencing coin prices.
5. The largest BTC treasury company is Strategy, the largest ETH treasury is BitMine (mining site), and the largest SOL treasury is Forward Industries.
6. After BitMine announced it would become an ETH treasury company, its stock price increased 33 times in 5 days; Metaplanet, a Japanese hotel company, saw its stock price increase 62 times after announcing it would become a BTC treasury.
Thus, many worthless companies enter the market to inflate stock prices, and these companies will likely collapse first when stock prices correct!
7. However, many treasury companies also experienced significant stock price corrections: Strategy's stock price fell 55% from its peak, Bitmine fell 75.61% from its peak, SharpLink (the second-largest ETH treasury) fell 90.76% from its peak, and Upexi (SOL treasury) fell 84.71% from its peak.
The sharp decline in stock prices of crypto treasury companies has led to several companies recently selling off crypto assets to repurchase stocks.
1. There are currently 142 crypto treasury companies, with 76 established in 2025, accounting for over 50%.
2. In 2025, the total investment by treasury companies is 42.7 billion, of which 22.6 billion (over 50%) was purchased in the third quarter.
Among BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB, all treasury companies except for BNB are in a state of unrealized losses.
3. Strategy holds over 70.7 billion in crypto assets, representing 50% of all crypto treasuries.
This is comparable to the status of BTC in the crypto field, serving as a barometer.
4. Out of 142 crypto treasuries, 113 hold BTC, 15 hold ETH, and 10 hold SOL; in terms of market value, BTC accounts for 82.6% of all crypto treasuries, ETH accounts for 13.2%, and SOL accounts for 2.1%.
Apart from BTC and ETH, others are just beginning; later currencies can be monitored for changes in proportion, which may be one of the key factors influencing coin prices.
5. The largest BTC treasury company is Strategy, the largest ETH treasury is BitMine (mining site), and the largest SOL treasury is Forward Industries.
6. After BitMine announced it would become an ETH treasury company, its stock price increased 33 times in 5 days; Metaplanet, a Japanese hotel company, saw its stock price increase 62 times after announcing it would become a BTC treasury.
Thus, many worthless companies enter the market to inflate stock prices, and these companies will likely collapse first when stock prices correct!
7. However, many treasury companies also experienced significant stock price corrections: Strategy's stock price fell 55% from its peak, Bitmine fell 75.61% from its peak, SharpLink (the second-largest ETH treasury) fell 90.76% from its peak, and Upexi (SOL treasury) fell 84.71% from its peak.
The sharp decline in stock prices of crypto treasury companies has led to several companies recently selling off crypto assets to repurchase stocks.
$ASTER forms a strong support at 0.916,
plus the recent @CZ public call, the bottom trading volume is increasing;
although the recent trading volume on the platform has decreased a bit, the project has been consistently repurchasing;
when the market rebounds, it will rebound even more fiercely.
The support for $ASTER may be stronger than $XPL
plus the recent @CZ public call, the bottom trading volume is increasing;
although the recent trading volume on the platform has decreased a bit, the project has been consistently repurchasing;
when the market rebounds, it will rebound even more fiercely.
The support for $ASTER may be stronger than $XPL
$XPL has a strong support at the 0.25 position!
In the past few days, the recent two transactions have also been magnified,
As long as BTC doesn't drop significantly, there should be a surge.
Even if the market continues to fall, the rebound in the later stage will be stronger for these types of coins!!
In the past few days, the recent two transactions have also been magnified,
As long as BTC doesn't drop significantly, there should be a surge.
Even if the market continues to fall, the rebound in the later stage will be stronger for these types of coins!!
0xbit-关注都是朋友
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Stablecoin public chain XPL has dropped so much, can it be bought?
Comparing the concept of stablecoin public chains, XPL is currently the most effective in practice, ranking second in the AAVE protocol, and should be considered the leader in this track.
Comparing the TVL of public chains, Plasma's TVL has surpassed popular public chains like Arbitrum, Hyperliquid L1, Avalanche, SUI, and Polygon.
Currently, the circulating market value of $XPL is 568 million, with a total market value of 3 billion;
Let’s compare a few specialized public chains/new public chains:
$APT, the leader in Move programming, has a circulating market value of 2.356 billion and a total market value of 3.842 billion.
$ALEO, the leader in privacy public chains, has a circulating market value of 148 million and a total market value of 445 million.
$TIA, the leader in modular public chains, has a circulating market value of 455 million and a total market value of 1.04 billion.
Based on my experience, these new public chain tokens are generally highly valued when they go public; then they experience a long period of decline and adjustment.
Of course, as long as the narrative they represent is still being speculated, the coin price will have the momentum to rebound, even strongly.
However, for these specialized public chains, ultimately, it depends on the practical results, and most end up as “King projects”!
Therefore, these types of tokens can still be speculated in the short term, but do not have faith!
Comparing the concept of stablecoin public chains, XPL is currently the most effective in practice, ranking second in the AAVE protocol, and should be considered the leader in this track.
Comparing the TVL of public chains, Plasma's TVL has surpassed popular public chains like Arbitrum, Hyperliquid L1, Avalanche, SUI, and Polygon.
Currently, the circulating market value of $XPL is 568 million, with a total market value of 3 billion;
Let’s compare a few specialized public chains/new public chains:
$APT, the leader in Move programming, has a circulating market value of 2.356 billion and a total market value of 3.842 billion.
$ALEO, the leader in privacy public chains, has a circulating market value of 148 million and a total market value of 445 million.
$TIA, the leader in modular public chains, has a circulating market value of 455 million and a total market value of 1.04 billion.
Based on my experience, these new public chain tokens are generally highly valued when they go public; then they experience a long period of decline and adjustment.
Of course, as long as the narrative they represent is still being speculated, the coin price will have the momentum to rebound, even strongly.
However, for these specialized public chains, ultimately, it depends on the practical results, and most end up as “King projects”!
Therefore, these types of tokens can still be speculated in the short term, but do not have faith!
Stalemate continues,
Non-farm data missing,
USDX explosion
caused today's decline!
Non-farm data missing,
USDX explosion
caused today's decline!
The probability of the shutdown ending before the 13th has decreased,
Recently, statements from Federal Reserve officials have drawn everyone's attention to inflation;
Therefore, whether the inflation data for October can be released on time on November 13,
determines the market's panic sentiment.
If the end of the shutdown is still far away, the lack of CPI data may cause the cryptocurrency market to continue to drop and explore the bottom.
Recently, statements from Federal Reserve officials have drawn everyone's attention to inflation;
Therefore, whether the inflation data for October can be released on time on November 13,
determines the market's panic sentiment.
If the end of the shutdown is still far away, the lack of CPI data may cause the cryptocurrency market to continue to drop and explore the bottom.
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