How high can ETH rise after the Ethereum spot ETF is listed?

After the Ethereum spot ETF is listed, it will be equivalent to providing a legal and regulated investment channel for Ethereum. The funds of traditional financial institutions and investors can flow into the market in a way that is considered safer, and there is a chance that the price of Ethereum will rise.

On the other hand, with the guarantee of supervision, the liquidity and transparency of the ETF will enhance the market's trust and visibility in Ethereum. In particular, the characteristics of Ethereum itself and on-chain DeFi that can obtain additional returns by staking may further attract more investors who are not satisfied with the traditional market.

It is expected that the inflow of funds will be between US$3 billion and US$4.8 billion in the first five months of the listing of the Ethereum spot ETF, showing strong market demand.

This speculation is based on the global relative market share of ETH AUM relative to BTC's 28%, and the comparison of CME's ETH OI with BTC's current 23%. Comparing these weights with the cumulative spot BTC ETF inflow of US$13.8 billion, the net inflow of ETH is between US$3.1 billion and US$4.8 billion. Our research shows that the newly launched US ETF will absorb 750,000 to 1,000,000 ETH, equivalent to 0.65-0.85% of the circulating supply of ETH.

More reports predict that Ethereum spot ETFs are slightly less attractive than Bitcoin, but there may still be $3 billion in net inflows in 2024, but if the approved version allows staking, this figure may exceed $6 billion.

All kinds of signs show that although Ethereum has not risen as much as Bitcoin since the beginning of this year, its performance in the second half of the year has the opportunity to outperform Bitcoin after the spot ETF is open for trading.