Since the end of March, due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the collapse of First Republic Bank, and the plunge of regional banks, BTC and ETH have benefited from a wave of dividends. However, from April to early June, there was a lot of negative information and FUD in the currency market. However, even so, it can be seen that the price of BTC can still be maintained above $26,000 for a long time. Even if it breaks down in the short term, it will still come back.
When BlackRock applied for an ETF in late June, we also priced BlackRock at $26,000. There was no direct negative news this time. Not to mention that SpaceX may still have BTC, the sales in 2021 and 2022 are already a thing of the past. There is no pressure on the current market at all. The main reasons for the decline are user sentiment, single price accumulation, the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates, lower expectations for BlackRock, and a series of other reasons.
It is still unclear whether it can still hold at $26,000, but if there is no more negative information in the market and the sentiment is almost released, it is indeed possible that it will continue to return to the trend of shock. After all, the narrative style of BTC and ETH has not changed so far.
Several abnormal information can be detected from the plunge:
1. They have been saying that there is no money in the market, but today they still lost 1 billion, the third in history, surpassing the FTX crash.
2. In the past, this level of explosion required a fancy story, such as BN being sued by the SEC and FTX going bankrupt. It often took several days to brew panic. This time the story was a bit far-fetched and the explosion was a bit hasty.
3. The panic sentiment is not as strong as imagined. Is it because the negative news is not exaggerated enough?
Is the market going to keep falling?
No, there is still a chance!
1. From the data, it is highly likely that US stocks and BTC will make money in October, while August and September are the months with a high probability of adjustment.
2. From a macro perspective, the CPI released in August and September may rise in the short term, because July to September last year was the most stubborn period of inflation, and the market will speculate on this, but after October, the CPI will continue to return to the normal downward track.
3. The implementation of the Fed's interest rate hike mainly depends on the data from August to September. By October, the market will have sufficient information feedback. Whether it is the last rate hike or no rate hike, it will be good for the market.
4. It is precisely because of the current decline that the risks are released, and the probability of rising in October will become greater
5. There is still the possibility that Mentougou and the US government will sell coins in October, but normally these risks will be released in advance in August and September. You think the most dangerous time is actually the safest time.
When market prices are weak, are sector leaders the secret to cyclical bottom-fishing?
First determine the sector, and only consider the core sectors with hot spots: L2, Web3, AI, LSD, new public chain, cross-chain, DeFi, GameFi, decentralized concept, NFT, MEME
Then select the strongest leading coin in each sector and ignore the others.
1. New L1L2, arb.op.sui.apt and its defi, the current market value is about 1 billion u, the peak of the bull market is over 50 billion, tvl is over 150 billion, refer to the last round of ada, eth
2. Platform Coin
Reason: Public chain/just-needed DeFi and platform coins are the only two profitable projects that can survive in a bear market. 100x coins have never been absent in every bull market.
3. AI section
Currently, most of them have a market value of less than 200 million, and the peak of the bull market is 5-10 billion.
Reason: This is a sector that is unique to this bull market cycle and has a grand narrative
They all refer to the circulating market value. In addition, don’t simply understand how many times it can be multiplied by dividing it. You also need to consider the growth of the circulation of the currency in 2025.
Some brothers are ready to start bottom-fishing. For those brothers who want to make a long-term layout in the spot market, wait a little longer. There are more cost-effective chips waiting for us. Of course, it refers to Bitcoin and Ethereum. We need to wait. All trends depend on the trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The repeated shocks after the market goes down are the blunt knife that kills without blood. That time is the real test for us.
Today's sharing ends here. Thank you very much for taking the time to read this article in your busy schedule. I hope the article is helpful to you. You can follow me and leave me comments to communicate with me.