Author: Axel Bitblaze
Compiled by: TechFlow
Let’s talk about what you’re all concerned about right now. At what price will $ZRO be released and what is the value of your $ZRO airdrop allocation?
Here are my thoughts on LayerZero’s airdrop allocation, price prediction, and listing plans.
Airdrop Allocation
I agree with most people's criticism of the airdrop model being poorly executed, I mean a lot of people have been grinding for a whole year and only got 200-300 tokens. I think they should have added another 1-2% to the core allocation and it would have been much better.
But it is still possible that the Core allocations will increase regardless. Since all the witches have not been cleared yet, these allocations will be rotated back to people. Considering the number of witches they caught, this may increase the number of core allocations by a large margin.
(See comments for details)
A lot of people hate me for holding Kanpai Panda, but they don't take into account that I, like them, have been working on LayerZero for a year and putting guides on it.
I got the same assignment in the Core section while Kanpai was part of the RFQ.
Price Prediction
First, to predict the price of $ZRO when it is released, we need to find the following data:
Assumed FDV
Total Supply
The price of $ZRO at launch will then be calculated as: FDV / Total Supply.
As @PrimordialAA mentioned, the total supply is 1 billion, so how to estimate the FDV?
My preferred method for estimating FDV at launch is to look at the FDV of recent projects with similar funding and competitors. To do this, I will consider the launch of $STRK & $W.
So, why $STRK & $W ?
After reading the post above, you can see that predicting the price involves taking into account the FDV of recently launched projects, their funding and their valuations, which is why I am looking at $STRK & $W launches, as their public and non-public valuations can help us predict $ZRO FDV.
Recent Project Comparison:
$STRK ：
Raised: $282 million
Valuation: $8 billion
Launch FDV: $28 billion
$W：
Funding raised: $225 million
Valuation: $2.5 billion
Launch FDV: $17 billion
$ZRO：
Raised: $263 million
Valuation: $3 billion
Start FDV:?
It can be clearly seen from the above that:
$STRK launched at a FDV 3.5x higher than its valuation.
$W launched at 6.5 times its valuation.
Given the poor market conditions, I think a valuation of 2-3x of at least $3 billion is reasonable for $ZRO, which means $6 billion - $9 billion.
What about the price? FDV / Total Supply
Total supply of $ZRO: 1 billion
$ZRO Price:
$6 billion FDV = $6
$7 billion FDV = $7
$8 billion FDV = $8
$9 billion FDV = $9
My "Game" Plan
I think LayerZero is here to stay. Unlike L1 and L2 chains, which need to actively attract people to join, LayerZero is more of an infrastructure project that almost all existing and upcoming projects will use as a cross-chain layer.
This means that even if users don’t consciously use LayerZero technology, they will still be exposed to it because it has been integrated into many projects. This is different from L1 and L2, where you have to convince people to actually use your chain.
FDV and Target Price:
At $5 billion FDV or below: I would buy more
I would consider selling some of my holdings at around $8 billion FDV
I would liquidate between $15 billion and $20 billion of FDV
Price
$5 or less: Buy
Sell some at $8
Clear positions between $15-20
