Original source: WTR Research Institute
Weekly Review
This week, from August 7 to August 14, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $30,244 and the lowest was close to $28,710, with a fluctuation range of about 5.38%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 29,000, which will provide a certain amount of support or pressure.
• analyze:
1. 26000-31000, about 4.16 million pieces;
2. 20,000~25,000, about 1.54 million pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 24,000~26,000 in the short term is 85%;
• The probability that the price will not break through 32,000-34,000 in the short term is 60%.
Important news
Economic News
1. The U.S. inflation rate for July was announced to be 3.2%, lower than market expectations.
2. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged for two consecutive meetings is 69.2%, which is equivalent to the probability of the end of the interest rate hike cycle is 69.2%.
3. Deutsche Bank said: As corporate earnings begin to rebound, if a recession is avoided, the S&P 500 will rise to 5,000 points, an increase of more than 10% from the current level.
4. Citigroup recently stated: The orderly correction of U.S. stocks last week reduced the risk of a large sell-off and laid the foundation for the S&P 500 index to gain new gains after reaching the overbought area.
Encrypted Eco-Messages
1. The Sandbox (SAND) will unlock approximately 330 million tokens at 16:00 on August 14, worth approximately US$130 million.
2. ApeCoin (APE) will unlock approximately 15.6 million tokens at 8:00 on August 17, worth approximately US$31.5 million.
3. Ethereum developers agreed to launch the next official test network Devnet 8 for the Deneb/Cancun upgrade early next week.
4. Russia plans to start pilot testing of the digital ruble on August 15.
5. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said: The so-called internal "sources" of Bayer and Invesco revealed that the spot ETF will be approved "within four to six months", not a question of "whether it will be approved".
6. The Federal Reserve announced the launch of a "New Activities Regulatory Program" that includes cryptocurrencies and other emerging asset classes to strengthen supervision of banks' involvement in digital assets.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
• Macro spot selling pressure
(Figure below: Macro spot selling pressure)
Because the overall situation and liquidity have not changed much in the past few weeks.
The situation has not changed, so this week we will focus on the selling pressure of the spot series.
The on-chain selling pressure of spot goods has reached a historical low, and the historical lows all correspond to the bottom time period of the approximate price.
This means that the pressure on the main selling group in the current market, that is, the spot part, is very small.
Mid-term exploration
• Profit and loss expense ratios by age group
• Accumulation Trend
• Accumulation trend
• Long-term vs. short-term holding ratio
(The following figure shows the profit and loss expense ratios of each age group)
Analysis of spending status by age group:
1. From a general structural analysis, it is known that participants who have been in the market for 1-2 years usually reach the maximum loss-spending ratio at the end of a bear market. In other words, the main escapees in a bear market are participants who have been in the market for 1-2 years. At the same time, when the pressure of loss-making selling of these escapees gradually shrinks, the market will face a relaxation.
2. Of course, if the market enters the recovery phase, participants in 2-3 years will gradually release the pressure, but their overall pressure to sell at a loss is relatively intermittent.
3. Further speculation is that when the market enters a stage where liquidity support is weak, it may shift from cyclically absorbing the pressure of participants who have been holding for 1-2 years to absorbing the pressure of participants who have been holding for 2-3 years when the market digests the structural selling pressure. This may be partly due to the increase in the age of these chip holders, and another underlying reason may be the escape of participants who have been in the market for 2-3 years.
4. There are signs of accelerated digestion at present, with participants in 1-2 years and 2-3 years digesting at the same time, or in other words, the intervals are relatively close.
(The figure below shows the ratio of long-term to short-term holdings) From a relative perspective, the proportion of short-term holders has increased relatively, which may indicate a relative increase in liquidity.
However, judging from the external environment, the current increase may only be a relative situation within the market.
(The following figure shows the accumulation trend of each group)
The accumulation trend scores generally reached a low level, which may reflect the relatively low accumulation intention of various groups in the past month.
As introduced in the previous report, this model only reflects short- and medium-term problems within one month, and it is possible that the accumulation situation is only weak at present.
(Total cumulative trend score in the figure below) Combined with the cumulative trend scores of the above groups, the total cumulative trend score is also at a relatively weak level.
It is possible that the current market lacks high participation from spot players, or lacks participation from short-term spot players, which has led to the market fluctuating back and forth at a relatively low level.
Judging from past situations, if the current situation does not change, the fluctuation and slide may continue.
Short-term observation
• Derivatives risk factor
• Option intention transaction ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• Net position of Sugar Orange Exchange
• Net position of the Auntie Exchange
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin exchange net positions
• Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor is in the safe area, with low risk
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
The price continues to fluctuate slightly, and the risk factor returns to a safe area, indicating that the current risk of derivatives is relatively low.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
The option trading volume and the proportion of put options have increased slightly, but are still at a relatively low level overall. This also indicates that the current willingness for put protection is relatively low.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
The current derivatives trading volume is at a low level, indicating that current derivatives traders are more inclined to wait and see.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
The current option implied volatility has not fluctuated significantly, indicating that current option traders are also more inclined to wait and see.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The current profit and loss transfer volumes are still at a low level, with no obvious directional fluctuations.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
Newly added and active addresses are at a medium-high level, indicating good activity on the chain.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: The overall outflow is accumulated and the selling pressure is low.
(The following figure shows the net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
The net position of the Bitcoin exchange is in a state of accumulation and outflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
The net position of E-Tai Exchange is in a state of outflow accumulation.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded, while stablecoin purchasing power has slightly decreased.
(Figure below: Global purchasing power status)
Purchasing power in Asia and Europe remained negative this week, while purchasing power in the Americas rebounded slightly.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions have seen a slight inflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT exchange net positions have slightly outflowed.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 28,500; there is a willingness to sell at 31,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 26000, 28000, and 28500;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 32000, 33000 and 35000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 25000, 27000, 28000, and 28500;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 31000, 32000 and 33000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data below)
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 32,000 and 33,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of the news:
As the cycle progresses, risky assets and most assets will recover and recover in the next two years.
Technology:
The virtual world will become increasingly important in the future; it may even become a key battlefield for competing for future resources.
Whether it is the name of Mars or the importance and cost of building a virtual world in lower slums, it will only become lower and lower;
If we want to go to Mars to see the people we want to see in the future, it will be extremely difficult.
Using cash will become extremely difficult in the future, as there is not enough physical material support, including experimental derivation.
Therefore, in the future the influence of the virtual world will only grow greater and greater, and whoever controls the virtual world can influence reality and control the world.
And Nvidia’s latest press conference showed details of AI plus 3D;
What is important is not how high the simulation is, but the modeling and design that can be coordinated with AI.
This may usher in 3D design and simulation, including virtually modeling entirely new scenarios and ways of working.
Encryption:
Asset management giants such as Bayer, Fidelity, and Invesco have also submitted spot ETF applications to the SEC.
The leading cryptocurrencies may not be as profitable and beautiful as they once were with the entry of institutions and regular forces, but there are still some things worth looking forward to and more progress in truly changing the world.
Encryption will be the payment channel between virtual and reality in the future.
Long-term insights on the chain:
1. The on-chain selling pressure of spot commodities has reached a historical low;
2. The low points in history all correspond to the approximate bottom time period of the price.
• Market setting tone:
The situation in more dimensions remains unchanged from the past few weeks, but the selling pressure continues to converge.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. From a macro-cycle perspective, the pressure of losses on participants in 1-2 years and 2-3 years is being gradually absorbed;
2. From the perspective of structural swaps, internal liquidity is in a relatively increasing state;
3. The accumulation situation within 1 month (short to medium term) is weak;
• Market setting tone:
Neutral, cool
Spot participants are less motivated and may continue to slide if the current market situation does not change. Changes in derivatives require additional analysis.
On-chain short-term observations:
1. The risk factor is in the neutral area and the risk is low.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is at a medium-high level, and the on-chain activity is good.
3. Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
4. The net position of the exchange as a whole shows an outflow accumulation state, and the selling pressure is relatively low.
5. Global purchasing power rebounded slightly.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 28,500 and a willingness to sell at the price of 31,000.
7. The probability that the price will not fall below 24,000-26,000 in the short term is 85%; the probability that the price will not rise below 32,000-34,000 in the short term is 60%.
• Market setting tone:
The overall market sentiment is neutral and will still fluctuate in the short term, with a low probability of large downward fluctuations.
Strategic recommendation: Maintain positions for dynamic hedging.
Risk Warning: The above are market discussions and explorations and do not have any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.
