As of now, the BTC price is about $29,400, and the market has continued to fluctuate slightly in the past two days. The trading volume observation shows that the recent trading volume has continued to decrease. We have mentioned that such a low trading volume reflects that the market funds are relatively concentrated, and institutional and long-term investors have not yet poured in. At present, the transactions are mainly driven by short-term retail investors.

Under the current circumstances, the 1-hour Bollinger Band is gradually tightening. If there is no external news stimulus or main force operation, the fluctuation range may expand in the next 1-2 days. The basic trend may be to rebound and fluctuate after falling to $29,000. As the amplitude increases, the market may continue to decline.

The Bollinger Bands at the 4-hour and 1-day levels are still in a downward channel. It may take some time for the market to go below 29,000 points. The 4-hour level K-line pattern is being repaired, and the Bollinger Bands are gradually tightening, which may take 3-5 days unless stimulated by external news. The 1-day level Bollinger Bands still show a downward trend, with no obvious changes.

The above analysis is only for the technical aspect, but we should note that institutions and retail investors in the market have different perspectives on Bitcoin. Short-term holders, especially those who have built positions at the bottom, may see $30,000 as pressure and a selling point, while institutions and long-term holders may see $29,000 as a low point, suitable for bottom-fishing accumulation. This creates an awkward situation, namely the $29,000-30,000 range. It has been seen many times before that it is difficult to break through 29,000, reflecting the lack of obvious pessimistic stimulus in the market. In this case, it is indeed difficult to break below 29,000 points in the short term. Therefore, technical analysis alone cannot fully determine the trend, and other factors need to be considered comprehensively.

In terms of US stocks, the S&P 500 index continued to be weak this week, indicating that after a hot rise, US stocks have entered a short-term decline. This week's CPI data has limited impact on US stocks, but it indicates that the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates. For US capital, continuous interest rate hikes will damage the domestic economic environment on the one hand and reduce investment returns on the other. Although the crypto market is not completely dependent on US stocks, the decline of US stocks will still affect the crypto market, which is also an investment field. The decline in the return rate of US stocks may continue to suppress investor sentiment, causing funds to shift to lower-risk areas.

Trend judgment:

At present, the main force has failed to change the downward trend and still maintains a bearish attitude. The key lies in whether it can break through the buying support of 28500-29000. If the buying is still strong, the rebound shock may continue. The current market news and stimulus have not brought about a clear trend.

Trading straregy:

At present, 29000 is regarded as the short-term bottom of the shock, so within the shock range, you can open shorts at high positions and long positions at low positions. However, the general trend is still bearish, so you must set a small loss position when you open long positions at low positions to prevent huge losses caused by a sharp rise in the market. The stop profit of the short position of 26000 is temporarily set at 29000, and the position can be changed at any time according to the market situation. You can just place a long position when it rebounds. The corresponding loss position will be given after receiving it. The specific strategy positions have been announced, please check!

Spot:

Recently, there have been rumors that the GameFi sector is heating up. Some people think that this is a sign of the start of a bull market. After all, this sector has rich narrative potential. However, I think the abnormal movement of this sector is more like a reasonable explanation for the previous pullback of the YGG project. Although I will continue to track related sectors, I do not recommend blindly entering the market. Short-term swing trading may be feasible, but in the case of overall market instability, long-term holding may not be appropriate.

There are many currencies being traded in the market recently, and it is difficult to tell whether they are driven by favorable factors or manipulated. Spot operations must be cautious. Altcoin and contract trading should also be cautious, and positions should be reasonably controlled and small position strategies should be adopted.

Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the circle