BTC had a pretty nice move higher on Sunday after consolidating above, as planned. A few things to note here

The first 4-hour retest above after losing, and this Wednesday’s FOMC/CPI and a few other macro events this week (before which you typically see a lot of hedging/de-risking by big players).

The right side is a great example from last month of what price action should be expected around data releases.

So while there is a bullish bias as we consolidate above, it is reasonable to assume that in the short term we are just consolidating/fixing around these levels, with a few bounces here and there (expected bounces from the 4-hour imbalance above), and once these macro events are done we will squeeze higher from where we are now consolidating.

The loss and failure to re-test above is an invalidation of my medium-term bullish bias, and that is where you pretty much take out most of your short-term/intermediate-term upside exposure and wait for summer price action, possibly buying in August/September.

After BTC bulls decide to go for a full setup again, a retest will compound the decline if given. With BTC expected to see some range-bound action until Wednesday, the most reasonable leveraged bet seems to be BTC only in the event of a clear invalidation, while a lot of the weaker stuff in the market is likely to continue bleeding.