This article is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. If you act on it, you are responsible for your own profits and losses.
Beijing-based traders: on-chain data users, trend traders.
Hello friends, the last time I posted my opinion was at the end of June, and it has been more than a month. From mid-July to now, BTC has been fluctuating and falling, but the overall amplitude is still relatively small, only about 10%. It is worth noting that the recent market has once again reached the critical point.
The black trend line in the figure is the support line for this round of rise. Since December 30 last year, the daily closing line has never effectively fallen below it. The current price is near the support line, and the trend support line and the 120-day line basically overlap. The price is around 2.85w. This is also close to the Fibonacci 28.6% retracement position. So this price is obviously the most critical dividing point in the near future.
If the daily closing price falls below the trend line, and the rebound cannot stand above the trend line, I think the subsequent market is definitely not optimistic. Another point is that since the end of June, during the period of BTC volatility, many small currencies have risen. It seems a bit like the end of the period, coupled with the divergence of technical indicators, Beipiao personally believes that if the daily closing price falls below the trend line, it is time to exit and wait and see.
If the daily closing line does not fall below, continue to hold. Friends can pay attention to the time point of August 13, which is the time for the latest spot ETF review. The odds of betting on the ETF passing on August 13 are relatively high. After so many years, everyone’s expectations for passing are no longer so high, just like the various policies issued in China to stimulate A-shares. People are already tired and naturally don’t believe it. Because of this, the impact of the news of failure on the market is limited, but once it passes, there should be a very good rise between August 13 and early September, because there will be intensive reviews in early September. So on August 13, you can bet on the ETF review event.
ETH and BTC are in a similar state, the difference is that ETH's trend line is basically coincident with the 200-day moving average. The 200-day moving average is the dividing line of ETH.
For this year's market, we can only look at the cycle. If you repeatedly trade in the 10-point fluctuation from the end of June to now, you should be losing money under normal circumstances. This is not a market worth trading. Simply looking at the long-term trend line to trade, although it is only a little more than 7% away from the last breakthrough of the 120-day line, at least you will not lose money in the fluctuation.
Subjective opinions are not that important. What is most important is the response measures for different situations. Have a plan and just follow it.
Follow me and earn maximum trend profits with minimal operations.
