The day before yesterday, I made an appointment with two friends to have a simple meal. I thought it was just an ordinary Saturday, but I forgot that it was Children's Day. The one-kilometer road was stuck in traffic for half an hour, and the queue for a meal took two hours. I have to sigh that children nowadays are really happy. Think about when we were young, visiting amusement parks? Buying gifts? Eating fried chicken and hamburgers? These can only happen in dreams.
May has become a thing of the past. No matter how many highlights and good results there are, they can only stay in the past. Looking back at May, we perfectly predicted the trend, from the pullback at the beginning of the month to the rebound in the middle of the month, everything was under control. In the middle of the month, we went all the way from 61,000 to 68,000, and stabilized at 68,000 in the second half of the month and successfully tested 72,000! The whole month of May, from short-term to mid-term, basically met all our expectations; then what kind of trend will June, which has already come, usher in? Will it continue to rise and break through new highs, or will it continue to fall under pressure at 72,000? The following is my personal opinion, for your reference only.
In fact, my main point of view in the analysis of May's trend is that the market will rise, and this point of view also applies to June, because the overall rebound in May is actually a preparation for the real rise that will follow. If May continues the correction in April, the entire trend structure may change, or the entire rise will be greatly delayed; so the rise in May can only be said to be just right, from 60,000 to 72,000, just completing the bottom to the top of the range; and in June, I personally expect that it will break through the top resistance of the range and break upward. In the first half of the month, it will break through the new high near 75,000, and in the second half of the month it is expected to hit 78,000-80,000. The 80,000 mark will not make us wait too long.
1. The upward trend of the daily cycle has been maintained since it was constructed in October last year (as shown in the figure below). During this period, 27,000 was used as the starting point, and it rose in stages through stepping back to the support points of 38,550 and 56,550. This round of trend has not been damaged in any way, which is also the key basis for our continued optimism!
2. From the short-term perspective of the daily line, after the correction in April, the price of the currency rebounded in May and tested the high resistance of 72,000 again. In the short term, it was under pressure at 72,000 and adjusted sideways. Here we need to pay special attention to 72,000. This position can be said to be the key to whether the upper space can be opened in June. As the strong pressure of the daily line for more than two months, if the daily line can break through and stabilize in the short term, it will at least reach 75,000. Therefore, in the short term, we focus on the breakthrough of the currency price to 72,000.
3. From the short-term daily perspective, it is currently oscillating narrowly around the 66500-69500 range. My personal opinion recently is that it is bullish in the short term if it holds above 67000. In recent days, I have been constantly suggesting to go long at 67000 and 67500. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the 69500 resistance. If it can stand firm in four hours, it will directly look up to 72000.
4. Going downward, if the support of 66500-67000 area is broken, it will continue to retreat to 64800-65000. This position is also the support of the upward trend line of the daily cycle. If it retreats to here in the first half of the month, boldly arrange mid-line longs. This position will also become the fourth support starting point.
Overall, June is still a bullish month. After the halving and the approval of the ETF, the entire market is expected to usher in a new outbreak in the future. Interested friends should seize the opportunity and plan their positions reasonably.
This article is original by Xiao Feng. The above analysis is only personal opinion and is for reference only. Investment is risky and you should be cautious when entering the market. Please indicate the source when reprinting!