7/29 BTC market analysis:

BTC continues to move sideways, and the downward channel opens. When will it fall below 29,000?

Hi, girls and boys, welcome to Uncle Cat Talking about Coins.

As of the time of posting, BTC is priced at around 29,300. After rising and touching a short-term peak in the early hours of yesterday morning, the market fluctuated and fell back to around 29,300. The current fluctuation range of 290,000-296,000 has been maintained for 5 days.

Last weekend we said that the Bollinger Bands closing cycle will open this week and gradually move out of the trend. At present, the downward channel has been opened. Of course, it should be explained here that the opening of the downward channel does not bring a unilateral downward market, but more of a volatile downward market.

Judging from the trading volume, the oscillation range of the main control is still there. There is obvious buying below 29000 to catch the bottom, and the selling sentiment will also decrease when it touches 29000. The selling pressure near 29600 is also strong. In the middle range, you can see from the trading volume that when the transaction amount is low, it can move out of the 1-2 hundred market.

From the news perspective, there is no obvious stimulus to the market. As mentioned above, the downward channel has been opened, and the only way to break through the channel is through a breakthrough brought by obvious good news. From the current news, the BlackRock application effect among the positive factors has been digested, and the result still needs time to wait. This week's bill application in the US House of Representatives also ended in failure, and the struggle between the two political parties in the United States is still continuing. Japan's web3 conference and Bi'an's successive actions are continuing, but all the above news cannot bring a breakthrough to the market.

Of course, negative factors are also gradually decreasing. The interest rate hike event has already landed, and there is not much emotional stimulation in the future. Whether the Ripple case will be overturned by the SEC again is not certain at present. According to what the CEO of Ripple said before, if the SEC appeals here, it may take several years to go through the process. As for Bi'an, the previous concerns are gradually being digested emotionally. At present, it seems that everything is developing in a benign way.

Overall, the news has both positive and negative factors that can make the market go out of a big unilateral trend in the short term, so don't think about a sharp drop or surge. When the long and short factors are not too breakthrough, the market's natural correction is inevitable. So recently my view has returned from the long position to the correction short position. In the short term, the lower support is 29,000, and the second is the small support around 28,500-28,000, which will be easily broken if there is news stimulation. The real effective support is between 27,500 and 27,000 below. If the market really reaches this position, after an effective breakthrough, the space below the market will be larger, and it may be possible to see the big cake below 25,000.

The recent market sentiment is relatively low, and smart people may have found some clues. You will find that ordinary institutions and whales are no longer touching Bitcoin and Ethereum, but have turned their attention to various altcoins. The recent frequent altcoin movements are a result of this.

Today is Saturday, old fans should know that according to my usual practice, I suggest that those who do not hold positions should wait and see. The market situation is tiring, and the weekend market is even more tiring. It is better to rest and have a good weekend. Those who hold positions should set their stop-profit and stop-loss, turn off the software and have a good rest.

Trend Direction:

The downward channel continues, the short-term small peak height will be lower and lower, and the market will gradually go down until it effectively breaks through 29,000 points below. Of course, there will be small rebounds during this period.

Trading straregy:

Finding the top to hang short is the safest and most reliable way. At most, you can cover your position when you encounter a strong small rebound. Of course, it is not impossible to take advantage of the rebound in the shock range, but the risk is relatively large. You need to find a suitable point to buy at a low position, otherwise the risk of being trapped is relatively large, so you need to pay attention.

Spot:

I continue to choose not to open a position in the spot market. Recently, many fans of the spot market came to say that they lost a lot of money, which made me angry and funny. Many newcomers enter the market and do short-term spot trading without considering the trend of the main market. It is wrong to just open a position with your head down. In fact, there are many obvious examples. Many tokens with good potential will turn from rising to falling if the market falls. Many people also complain that the token project party is harvesting again, but any altcoin cannot ignore the dynamics of the market. If the market trend falls, even the best projects will be affected. Unless it is a single main controlling coin. #BTC