▫️11 investment banks look forward to the Fed's July interest rate decision, an interest rate increase in July is certain and worry about whether the interest rate hike cycle will end
1. Credit Fanon: The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps, which would be the last of this rate hike cycle, but both the policy statement and Powell's speech will hold The possibility of further policy tightening, and caution against the USD before peak interest rates recover.
2. Goldman Sachs Group: Fed expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps, this is the last round of this rate hike cycle, we think Powell wants to skip the rate hike in September, but will avoid implying that the Fed has reached a consensus on this.
3. UBS: The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps, which would be the last of this rate hike cycle. Powell will insist that future decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. The Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates from the fourth quarter of this year.
4. Standard Chartered Bank: The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps, which will be the final round of this rate hike cycle, unless inflation unexpectedly picks up sharply, otherwise expected will skip interest rate hikes in September, but the Fed may cautiously give moderate Dove guidance.
5. TD Securities: Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps, although this may be the last of this rate hike cycle, but the Fed is not ready to signal a change yet this change and are more willing to maintain the trend of further policy tightening.
6. Citigroup: Fed expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps, risks of dovishness lie in the addition of "inflation has fallen" in the FOMC statement and Powell does not emphasize the dot chart in June, but discussed the possibility of a rate cut as inflation falls.
7. JPMorgan Chase: The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps, but there will be some internal disagreement and forward guidance on interest rates will not change. Powell would reiterate the information provided by the dot plot in June, saying that future decisions would depend on the data.
8. Bank of America: Fed expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps. Pay attention to Powell's post-meeting communications. Strong economic activity and labor market data are expected to mean the Fed will raise interest rates for the last time this cycle at its September meeting.
9. Barclays Bank: The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps and the tightening bias implied in the policy statement will be maintained. Powell will signal further policy tightening and is expected to add another 25 bps in September or November.
10. Deutsche Bank: Fed expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps. Powell is unlikely to offer strong guidance, instead emphasizing how to rely on data or each meeting to determine interest rates and maintain flexibility to raise rates again in September.
11. Westminster National Bank: Fed expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps and press conference will be hawkish. Powell may emphasize reliance on data, but pointed out that a dot plot in June implying at least one more rate hike after July remains plausible.
