As the U.S. CPI data for June showed that inflationary pressures have continued to slow, the market is closely watching the interest rate decision to be released by the Federal Reserve after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 25-26.

The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in July, but this may be the last rate hike in this cycle.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% year-on-year in June, the 12th consecutive month of decline and the lowest level since March 2021. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 4.8% year-on-year, the lowest level since October 2021, and rose 0.2% month-on-month, the lowest record since August 2021.

Everyone believes that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%-5.5% in July, and most believe that this will be the last increase in this round of rate hikes.

CME's FedWatch tool shows that as of July 20, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in July is close to 100%.

What is certain now is that the interest rate will be raised in July, there will be no meeting in August, and the interest rate will be lowered next year.

September is a relatively critical node. In September, the Fed officials will have a dot plot of interest rate expectations. At this time, the trend of the remaining three months of this year can be basically determined. Regardless of whether there is a rate hike in September, the probability of a rate hike in the fourth quarter is relatively small. September is likely to be a turning point for monetary policy.

Before September, there was almost no positive news, but there might be negative news. Since many people thought that the price would fall in the second half of 2019, they would not wait until September to sell the coins. Moreover, the upward impact has failed many times. The probability of falling is high, the probability of sideways is low, and the probability of rising is very small.

After September, the market may gradually rise. Because the expectation of interest rate cut next year may affect the market in advance

Draw a line, BTC 28000 seems to have a support level, but it is likely to fall below. On the one hand, we have all heard the story of "the wolf is coming", and no rule can be repeated for the third time; on the other hand, after September, the interest rate hike will most likely stop, and the interest rate cut will begin soon. High interest rates are indeed dangerous, but expectations are often advanced. Therefore, before the September Fed meeting, the main force will smash a wave to absorb funds.

In addition to the above, there is another logic, that is, 2023 is a market situation between 2015 and 2019. The first half of 2015 was a shock, the first half of 2019 was an accelerated rise, and the first half of 2023 was a shock rise. The second half of 2015 was an increase, and the second half of 2019 was a decrease, so I think the second half of 2023 will fall first and then rise, which seems to be in line with this logic.

No matter how the market goes, one thing that is certain is to buy at the bottom when the market falls!

Let’s focus on the layout of the next bull market

For small funds, take a medium value (30,000-80,000 yuan), (this is also the class I want to focus on) because a large part of the market is still in this stage. New investors rush in after entering the circle, frequently operate in pursuit of rising and falling, and regret it when the principal is lost. They rush in when they hear that a certain coin is good, and sell at a loss when they hear that it will fall. After several consecutive operations, the money is reduced by half. It’s a scam.

In this market, the most suitable path for novices is to be brave enough to hoard coins in a bear market. In a bull market, all you need to do is to recharge your faith and hold on until the expected value you set is reached and start selling in batches.

My suggestion for small funds is: take out 60% of the funds and select 2-3 sectors to invest in each sector to buy a coin. It doesn’t have to be a leader, but before buying, you must carefully research the project endorsement and why you are optimistic about this project or track, and judge whether the price and market value are underestimated. It is best not to buy this type of currency with a very small trading volume or a very old project. The market value of 80-200 is the most suitable

② Take out another 15%-20% to buy meme coins (such as dog, shitcoin, pepe, love dog, etc.). For this type, choose those with good mechanisms, active projects, and those listed on OK or An'an, so that they are not easy to run away. There are more 0s in this type. Bet on 2-3. If any one of them is driven by the heat in the bull market, it is easy to make a hundred times the profit. It is like a lottery.

③ The remaining 20% ​​of the funds are reserved for activity funds. As we all know, every bull market will have new narrative hot spots to promote the story. This kind of main narrative market will produce many high-quality currencies that can even reach the top 10 in market value. This 20% of funds is used to bet on new currencies when the trend narrative comes, or to buy the currencies you are optimistic about at the bottom and cover your positions in batches.

By the way, there is one more rule in the bull market: remember to gradually withdraw your money after making it, otherwise a big fall may wipe out all your profits and even cause you to suffer losses.

Today's sharing ends here. Thank you very much for taking the time to read this article in your busy schedule. I hope the article is helpful to you. You can follow me and leave me comments to communicate with me.