The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to make a decision on the first spot Ethereum ETF application by VanEck on Wednesday, May 23. The outcome will likely set the tone for other issuers, including Ark 21Shares, Hashdex, Grayscale, Invesco Galaxy, BlackRock, and Fidelity. Despite the odds of approval appearing slim, there remains optimism in the market.

The SEC's decision will hinge on the approval of both the 19b-4s (exchange rule changes) and the S-1s (registration statements). It's possible that the SEC could approve the 19b-4s while delaying the S-1s, a tactic that could be used to further evaluate market conditions or the specific structures of these ETFs without outright denying the applications.

The Ethereum price outlook could be significantly impacted by the SEC's decision. If approved, ETH prices are likely to surge in the short term. However, even if the applications are denied this week, many believe that the Ethereum bottom is already in and spot ETFs will eventually be approved, leading to a bullish run for Ethereum in the coming months.