Recently @BinanceResearch published a report on Mcap/FDV ratio statistics of tokens launched in early 2024. I noted some interesting points for your reference 👇
1. Compare the Mcap/FDV ratio of tokens over the years
- In 2022, the total FDV of launch tokens is 40 billion, Mcap falls to 16.6 billion, accounting for 41.2%
- This figure is 26.7% of 92.7 billion FDV out in 2023
- In Q1/2024 alone, the amount of FDV is nearly equal to the total of 2023 with 90 billion but the ratio is only 12.3%.
=> With the trend of Mcap at TGE being too small compared to FDV, this leads to an extremely large token discharge force in the remaining years, moreover, the token valuation at the time of TGE is also unusually high, causing investors to buy at high valuation
2. Statistics on Mcap/FDV ratio of recently launched tokens
- Like $ZK is ambiguous in tokenomics, but Binance Research notes that the initial amount of TGE is very small, only 6% of the total.
- The tokens launched at this time have in common that the initial circulation is <20% of total
3. The very high valuation is reflected in the FDV of newly launched tokens, which tends to approach the top 10 highest FDV in the market.
- With the average FDV of the top 10 Markets being about 22.4 billion, projects like $STRK have the highest FDV of 27.1 billion or $ENA 21 billion, 18.1 billion...
- The tokens are priced close to the top 10 of the market, causing the prices we buy to be mostly high, with the ability to swing to the top if bought at the beginning.
4. Pricing in capital raising
- One interesting point is that not only our brothers were bought at high prices, but the VCs who wanted to invest in the project this year were also priced much higher than last year.
- Statistics show that the average valuation of projects calling for capital is 70% higher than Q3/2023, meaning that the same project can raise more capital this year.
- It can also be seen that VCs still seem to be holding a lot of money and recently they have been much easier to disburse
5. Conclusion with individual investors
- Tokenomics should not be taken lightly because the amount of circulation about to be unlocked is very large, the selling pressure on the market is undeniable. If the project does not pump the price or create demand for tokens, it will be difficult to increase the price
- This FDV index is actually only for reference and should not be too confusing, because there are projects that have a very long vesting time so it is not a concern. You guys need to look more closely at the tokenomics of the project (refer to the article below)
- Check clearly whether the project's product is supported by users, is there buy demand for the token, is the project still developing well?
