Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading near the $30,000 level for a while, but this does not mean that buyers are losing interest. On the contrary, on-chain data shows that this price point is the most popular “buy” level for BTC, as well as the level where long-term holders are holding on to their coins.

What does the on-chain data show?

On-chain data refers to the information that can be extracted from the Bitcoin blockchain, such as transactions, addresses, balances, and more. By analyzing this data, we can get insights into the behavior and sentiment of market participants.

One of the metrics that can reveal the demand for BTC at different price levels is the unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs). These are the outputs of transactions that have not been spent yet and represent the current supply of BTC.

According to Glassnode, a crypto analytics firm, the largest number of UTXOs were created at a price of $30,200, meaning that this is the price where most buyers acquired their BTC. This metric excludes coin movements between addresses owned by the same entity and coins held on exchanges, which could skew the results.

The data indicates that 3.8% of the total BTC supply was last moved at $30,200, surpassing even the volume moved at $16,500, which was the price near the 2022 post-FTX bottom.

Another metric that can reveal the behavior of long-term holders is the Hodled or Lost Coins metric. This metric measures the “liveliness” of the Bitcoin blockchain, or how often coins are moved. It shows that “old and large stashes” of BTC continue to reach new record highs, meaning that long-term holders are not selling their coins, even though the price has doubled this year.

The Hodled or Lost Coins segment accounts for 7.77 million BTC, equivalent to about $233 billion. This is the highest level in the past five years. This segment also includes BTC that is likely to be lost forever, such as when owners lose access to their wallets. Previous estimates have suggested that around 20% of Bitcoin’s total supply of 21 million units may already be locked out of circulation.

TLDR points

  • On-chain data shows that $30,000 is the most popular “buy” level for Bitcoin, with a significant number of transactions occurring at this price.

  • On-chain data also shows that long-term holders are not selling their Bitcoin, resulting in a stagnant supply.

  • These insights suggest that there is strong demand and conviction for Bitcoin at the current price level and that a significant price movement may be imminent.